The Container Guide (2015)

By Numerous authors

2017 Georgia Cotton Production Guide

By Coop Extension / UGA

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016

By India Ministry of Law and Justice 

Keynes Hayek 

By Nicholas Wapshott

Free To Choose 

By Milton Friedman 

The Essential Milton Friedman

By Milton Friedman 

Note: numerous ibanking deals cramped my summer reading, but nevertheless I am back with a fury. The book: The Container Guide, is really something and I encourage any logistics and global trade nerd to buy it. 

Chaganomics has opened up access to a new long form subsection. It is aptly named Chaganomics Long Form (LINK) and covers energy, physical commodity trading, global trade, marine shipping, major shipping concerns and financial developments news tying these aspects to our modern markets.

See: Chaganomics Intermodal and Bulk Shipping Page 

While this is only in Europe, many have been talking about it. Personally there is no way I would pay for research if we traded at a firm as well. To a degree this is avoidable, as shown below. JPM will absorb the costs and make them a soft dollar sale product.

To borrow from the FCA: The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive is the EU legislation that regulates firms who provide services to clients linked to ‘financial instruments’ (shares, bonds, units in collective investment schemes and derivatives), and the venues where those instruments are traded. LINK

Market Chatter: JP Morgan Asset Management Plans to Absorb Research Costs Due to New Regulation - 12:18 PM EDT, 08/11/2017 (MT Newswires) -- JP Morgan's (JPM) asset management unit plans to absorb the cost of research from brokerages rather than pass them on to clients after new European Union regulations come into force in less than six months, Reuters reported. The new rules will require brokers to charge fund managers for research they provide separately from trading services, according to the report. Vanguard, Jupiter, M&G and Aberdeen have also said they will pay research costs themselves, while hedge fund Man Group's stockpicking unit GLG, Janus Henderson and Schroders, said they plan to pass research costs on to clients, the report added. JP Morgan shares were 0.6% lower on Friday afternoon. Price: 91.67, Change: -0.52, Percent Change: -0.56

From the SEC: The report includes a survey and analysis of recent academic literature, as well as original analyses drawn from publicly available databases and non-public regulatory filings. The report examines the issuance of debt, equity, and asset-backed securities, as well as activity and liquidity in U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, single-name credit default swaps, and bond funds. Specifically, the report identifies trends for unregistered offerings, such as those under Regulation D and Regulation Crowdfunding, as well as fixed income transactions, fixed income quotations, and broker-dealer financial positions. LINK

In response to the U.S. Russia sanctions Russia has made an announcement regarding changes for international payments and about settling their payments in USD.



Russia will speed up work on reducing its dependence on U.S. payment systems and the dollar as a settling currency in response to U.S. sanctions, RIA new agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Monday.

"We will of course intensify work related to import substitution, reduction of dependence on U.S. payment systems, on the dollar as a settling currency and so on. It is becoming a vital need," Ryabkov was quoted as saying. (Writing by Polina Nikolskaya; Editing by Maria Kiselyova abd Dmitry Solovyov) - RTRS

From Aug. 1, 2017:

The United States began removing furniture and equipment from a diplomatic property in Moscow on Tuesday in the first sign of compliance with a Kremlin order to slash its presence in Russia as retaliation for new U.S. sanctions.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the United States to cut around 60 percent of its diplomatic staff in Russia by Sept. 1, and said Moscow will seize two U.S. diplomatic properties in response to sanctions approved by Congress last week.

The White House has said U.S. President Donald Trump will sign the sanctions bill, meant as a response to alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and to further punish Moscow for its 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine - RTRS

Climateer Investing: "iHeartMedia edges closer to bankruptcy with $174 ...: On Tuesday the WSJ Bankruptcy newsletter had the news that IHRT was making the coupon payment on some of the unsecured debt. The stock jump...

I support Bitcoin Cash. It is a worthwhile move towards merchant based activity which will support a fundamental price basis.

There will now be two separate versions of the blockchain (Bitcoin) with a shared history (assuming all goes well Aug. 01). This smaller version represents 20% of the actual market BTC value. Basically acting like a cash future.

Bitcoincash.org

Bitcoin Cash brings sound money to the world. Merchants and users are empowered with low fees and reliable confirmations. The future shines brightly with unrestricted growth, global adoption, permissionless innovation, and decentralized development. https://www.bitcoincash.org 

Bitcoin Cash Info:

Forbes Article on Bitcoin Fork During Aug. 1

- www.forbes.com/sites/cbovaird/2017/07/26/cryptocurrency-market-resilient-amid-bitcoins-possible-hard-fork/amp/

Coinbase Blog: What Is A Bitcoin Fork ?

- https://blog.coinbase.com/what-is-a-bitcoin-fork-cba07fe73ef1

Animal spirits and real estate bubbles are some of my favorite economic subjects to study.
SF is the best bubble to look at. It is a controlled bubble, with a high supply of money.
The bubble in San Fran is a unique mix of limited supply, high demand, a higher concentration of income, and zoning laws which limit development. The below map indicates zoning restrictions on height. Yellow represents areas limited to 40 ft height restrictions.

Afraid of losing their iconic views, San Franciscans started passing referendums that established "sunset zoning," making it illegal for tall buildings to put any city park or public square in shadow for more than an hour after sunrise or an hour before sunset. - Business Insider

Map by Mike Shiraldi

Jobs

United States Employment Situation
Prior: 138,000
Consensus: 170,000
Consensus Range: 140,000 to 200,000
Actual: 222,000
Bonds are in bear market (Dahlio echoes Bill Gross)

“The directions of policy are reversing,” with central banks slowing the flow from their proverbial punch-bowls of stimulus, Dalio, chairman of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, wrote in a July 6 note. “Our responsibility now is to keep dancing, but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.” - BBERG

ADP/Moody’s: 158,000 private-sector jobs created in June 2017
Expectations: 180,000 jobs

ADP/Moody's count is estimate and was off the previous month by over 50,000. Actual results come tomorrow (6/7/2017)

Fed Minutes of June 2017 Meeting
Reducing Fed’s $4.5 Trillion balance sheet

Several officials want to start by end of August and others want to wait until year end

No timetable released

Parameters: $10 billion monthly in quarterly increments until its $50 billion monthly; will continue until balance sheet is about $2-$2.5 Trillion

Several Fed officials felt the reduction in the balance sheet and associated policy tightening "was one basis for believing that...the target range for the federal funds rate would follow a less steep path than it otherwise would." Some others, however, said the shedding of bonds should not figure heavily in deciding monetary policy.

Rate hike

Some officials stated the inflation weakness raised concern regarding the current implied path of rate hikes

Economists largely expect the Fed to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its September meeting before raising rates again at its final meeting of the year in December.

Low inflation rates

Considered temporary and likely to rise over long run to targeted 2%

Reason: “idiosyncratic factors, including sharp declines in prices of wireless telephone services and prescription drugs, and expected these developments to have little bearing on inflation over the medium run”

However, several participants expressed concern that “progress...might have slowed and that the recent softness in inflation might persist,” the Fed said in the minutes.

Concern over lack of effect on markets

Despite four interest rate hikes, gov’t bond yields have declined in recent months and stocks have continued to gain

Low bond yields, they reasoned, could be the product of "sluggish longer-term economic growth" as well as the Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet of bond holdings.

On stock prices, FOMC members "suggested that increased risk tolerance among investors might be contributing to elevated asset prices more broadly; a few participants expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled with a low equity premium, could lead to a buildup of risks to financial stability."

Fed expects inflation to move up and stabilize.

I would have dissented. - CH


02:34 PM EDT, 06/14/2017 (MT Newswires) -- The Federal Reserve raised the target range on its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, the third increase in the last five meetings, and signalled one more hike for 2017. In an eight-to-one decision the Federal Open Market Committee set the Federal funds target range at 0.75% to 1%, according to a statement. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented, preferring to keep the rate unchanged. "The labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year," the FOMC said. "Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined." The rate was last raised in March, with the FOMC citing solid job gains and a moderate pace of economic expansion. The committee opted to maintain the rate in May, seeing slowing growth in economic activity. The Fed, which targets maximum employment and price stability with an inflation aim of 2%, has long said decisions on rate hikes will be driven by data, as well financial and international events. Data released earlier initially seemed to have diminished the chances of another hike anytime soon. Retail sales declined 0.3% in May for both the nominal and core, missing expectations for a gain of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Excluding sales of both autos and gas, retail sales were unchanged, below the consensus estimate for an increase of 0.3%. The consumer price index dropped 0.1% but was 0.1% higher excluding prices for food and fuel, although both were below expectations. Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson said before the decision that the CPI report wouldn't stop the Fed hiking Wednesday, but if this trend continues through the summer then the next hike, which they had been expecting in September, will be delayed. "Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the committee is monitoring inflation developments closely," the FOMC said. That's a change from May's statement, where the committee said it "continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments." In economic projections, members see a 2017 Fed funds rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous outlook given in March. That implies one more 25 basis-point hike to come this year. The median for core personal consumption expenditures inflation was lowered for this year to 1.7% from 1.9% in March and held at 2% for 2018. Growth projections for 2017 were raised to 2.2% from 2.1% predicted earlier, and 2018's outlook was maintained at 2.1%.

Are you curious about OPEC? See below- Chaganomics

Great slide for the summer from John Kemp at Reuters. 

While some say Canada is experiencing a bubble (Vancouver/ Toronto) others are stating that Canada is now finding her footing. Asian money is flowing in clearly to BC and global money - from Iran to Russia - is said to be flooding Toronto. The house take is: this has been happening for a while for many reasons. One is that Canada is a safe haven. Two is that Canada is a liberal trade focused, commodity country. The latter generally follows free flowing money and commerce, but not always liberal freedom. Canada is unique for that and a great place to be in North America - one which provides a safe real estate asset. It serves as a second America for citzens who need access to a stable market coming from China, Iran, Russia and other countries. In reality Canada has been heating up in multiple markets and urban areas for a while (years and years) and there is a chance the market can become mature and level out. - Chaganomics

Montreal Is Making The Move!

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index - which measures repeat sales of single-family homes - rose another 1.2% in April, including a whopping 2.6% in Toronto. With April's gain, home prices in Toronto are now up 26.3% Y/Y; in nearby Hamilton, they're higher by 22.9%. In Vancouver, where the local government has taken steps to cool things, prices were lower by 0.1%. Meanwhile, mortgage lender Home Capital Group (OTC:HMCBF) is down more than 10% as it warns on funding. @SeekingAlpha

Canada’s home prices rise for 15th month straight on hefty gains in Toronto, Hamilton. @FinancialPost

Home Capital has plunged by about 60 percent in the past five weeks after a Canadian regulator accused it of misleading investors over an internal probe of fraudulent mortgage loan applications. That sell-off sparked concern it could deflate a soaring housing market that has seen prices soar more than 30 percent in Toronto and Vancouver. @Bloomberg

“There is not evidence that fraud is a widespread problem within the industry but we know it happens. It’s very hard to find and incentives exist for frauding the system so we need to be vigilant,” Evan Siddall, chief executive of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC) told reporters. @FinancialPost