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BBC: US singer-songwriter Bob Dylan has sold the rights to his entire song catalogue to Universal Music Group (UMG). The deal is one of the ...
Bob Dylan Sells Catalog
BBC: US singer-songwriter Bob Dylan has sold the rights to his entire song catalogue to Universal Music Group (UMG). The deal is one of the biggest acquisitions in Universal's history and means the company will collect all future income from the songs.
Hey! Chad Hagan here and I figured I would help unwind this deal for anyone confused. There has been a lot of talk in Mr. Dylan selling his catalog.
Perhaps this is excellent timing on Dylan's part. 2020 was the year all concerts shuttered and many musicians - even established multimillionaires like Dylan - have felt the strain. To begin, Dylan is nearing 80 years old and may have simply wanted to get his affairs in order - the deal was rumored to be at $200m and $450m (£150m - £340m). Did UMG overpay or underpay? I think they paid market rate, and we do not know all the specifics. UMG is private - owned in part by Vivendi (90%) and Tencent (10%) - and there is a big chance they will go public in the next year or two. Also important to note, Columbia Records (owned by Sony), Dylan's longtime corporate label and the oldest recording company in America will still be involved in the relationship. To what extent I do not know.
Will other Artists Follow Suit? For sure. Stevie Nicks sold 80 percent of her catalog to Primary Wave Music. 60's music icon David Crosby tweeted the other day that he was exploring such options. David Bowie and The Beatles are perhaps the best know artists who pioneered monetizing their music. Recently Curtis James Jackson III (50 Cent) arranged a prepayment for his catalog administration, which is typical and reminiscent of artist advances during vinyl record, cassettes and compact discs days. Top artists with performing catalogs are viewed as safe haven commodities to investors. In year past Paul McCartney's Christmas song "Wonderful Christmastime" has generated over $500K per year in royalties alone.
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OECD Economic Outlook, December 2020
The recovery remains firmly in place, with October indicators signaling still-robust economic dynamics. On 29 October, China’s top leadershi...
China Economics Outlook Improves
The recovery remains firmly in place, with October indicators signaling still-robust economic dynamics. On 29 October, China’s top leadership finalized the blueprint of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021—2025) and unveiled its “Vision 2035” program, which intends to catapult China to “moderately developed economy” status in 15 years. The final document will be approved at the March 2021 National People’s Congress. The agenda includes boosting total factor productivity, rebalancing economic development and reducing the economy’s dependence on external markets and technology. Although it is ambitious, China’s solid track record of meeting economic and social targets makes this initiative plausible. Regarding the U.S. elections, while a Biden presidency should lead to some reduction in trade tensions, the removal of existing trade tariffs is still uncertain.
• Economic growth is expected to accelerate sharply in 2021. Next year, private consumption should be the main growth driver as it recovers from the coronavirus-induced slump and the impact of social distancing measures. Despite the new Democrat-led administration in the U.S., uncertainty over the China-U.S. relationship will likely persist and affect investment decisions. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 7.9% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel foresees GDP expanding 5.2%.
• Inflation tumbled to 0.5% in October from 1.7% in September, marking an over 10-year low. That said, the subdued reading mostly reflected a high base effect from last year due to the African swine fever outbreak, as well as declining fuel prices. Inflation is expected to pick up next year due to solid domestic growth. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that inflation will average 2.0% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, they see inflation increasing to 2.2%.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has refrained from adding monetary stimulus in recent months as the economy appears to be on a path to recovery. The PBOC uses a complex system to implement monetary policy, including key benchmark rates and reserve requirement ratios. Panelists project the one-year deposit rate to end 2021 and 2022 at 1.50%. The loan prime rate is seen ending 2021 at 3.72%.
• The yuan continued to post gains in recent weeks due to solid economic growth and a significant interest rate differential due to an ultra-low interest rate environment worldwide. On 13 November, the yuan traded at 6.61 CNY per USD, appreciating 2.1% month-on-month. Looking forward, the yuan is expected to broadly remain at current levels. Our panelists see the yuan ending 2021 at 6.67 CNY per USD and 2022 at 6.74 CNY per USD.
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Brent crude prices plummeted in recent weeks as the oil market navigated election-related uncertainty in the U.S., soaring numbers of new C...
Oil Outlook November 2020
Brent crude prices plummeted in recent weeks as the oil market navigated election-related uncertainty in the U.S., soaring numbers of new Covid-19 cases globally and despite a tightening supply outlook. On 6 November, oil traded at USD 39.6 per barrel, which was 7.5% lower than on the same day last month. Moreover, the benchmark price for global crude oil was 36.4% lower than on the same day last year and was down 40.3% on a year-to-date basis. Oil prices sank to a five-month low at the end of October, battered by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe which prompted authorities to reintroduce lockdown measures in most countries. Moreover, rising oil output and the absence of further fiscal stimulus in the U.S. further hurt crude prices. That said, oil prices staged a strong bounceback in early November amid premature signs of a Trump victory in a tight election race. Prices dipped again, however, as Joe Biden secured the victory in the elections, promising to deliver a green new deal and signaling a likely re-engagement with Iran. Meanwhile, shrinking U.S. crude oil inventories and news that Russia is planning to roll over current production cuts until the end of Q1 2021 boded well for prices. Oil prices should regain some lost ground next year, as the global economy shrugs off the effects of the pandemic and oil demand rises thanks to rebounding economic activity. However, the outlook remains fragile amid an unprecedented mix of geopolitical, economic and health-related uncertainty. A prolonged global health crisis and the potential continuation of widespread lockdown measures, hotly contested U.S. election results, tensions in the Middle East, output volatility in Libya and OPEC+ production cuts are key factors to watch ahead. FocusEconomics panelists project prices to average USD 52.1 per barrel in Q4 2021 and USD 55.7 per barrel in Q4 2022. This month, 3 panelists upgraded their projections for Q4 2021, although 6 panelists revised down their estimates. Meanwhile, 26 panelists left their projections unchanged. Highlighting the lingering uncertainty, panelists continue to have diverging views on the price outlook: For Q4 2021, the maximum price forecast is USD 65.0 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 43.9 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices plunged over the past month, rocked by uncertainty over elections in the U.S. and a frail global demand backdrop due to soaring Covid-19 cases. WTI crude oil prices traded at USD 37.0 per barrel on 6 November, which was 8.8% lower than on the same day last month. Moreover, the price was 34.2% lower than on the same day last year and was down 39.5% on a year-to-date basis. The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic hit Europe and the U.S. hard in late October, prompting authorities to reintroduce lockdown measures in most countries and hammering oil prices in turn. This, coupled with bearish factors in the U.S.— rising oil output, the absence of further fiscal stimulus and election-related uncertainty—sent WTI prices diving to a five-month low on 30 October. Although prices rebounded strongly in early November, on premature signs of an election victory for President Trump, Joe Biden’s projected victory in the elections dealt another blow to prices in recent days, as markets reacted to a green new deal agenda and likely reengagement with Iran. Shrinking U.S. crude oil inventories and news that Russia is planning to roll over current production cuts until the end of Q1 2021 supported the prices, however. Oil prices are seen trending upwards next year, propelled by recovering demand as the impact from the pandemic fades. That said, the outlook remains uncertain, with a longer-thanexpected global health crisis and the subsequent continuation of lockdown measures in many countries seen as a key downside risk. Geopolitical risks due to the hotly contested U.S. election results, lingering tensions in the Middle East and output volatility in Libya and the U.S. and uncertainty over OPEC+ output discipline, are all major factors to watch going forward. FocusEconomics panelists project prices to average USD 48.5 per barrel in Q4 2021 and USD 51.3 per barrel in Q4 2022.
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OVERVIEW | Global commodity prices dip in September Global commodity prices fell 2.5% over the previous month in September, contrasting Augu...
FocusEconomics - Commodities - October 2020
OVERVIEW | Global commodity prices dip in September Global commodity prices fell 2.5% over the previous month in September, contrasting August’s 3.9% increase and marking the first decline since April. September’s downturn was chiefly driven by a broad-based decline in prices for energy and precious metals. The recovery in oil prices was stopped in its tracks at the end of Q3 amid muted global demand, while prices for gold, silver and platinum dived for the first time in five months as safe-haven demand shifted to the strengthening U.S. dollar. That said, robust Chinese demand continued to fuel price growth for base metals, while agricultural prices rose at the strongest pace in over a year in September, thus softening the overall downturn. FocusEconomics panelists expect global commodity prices to contract 16.1% year-on-year in Q4 2020 (previous edition: -16.4% year-on-year). Plunging energy prices are set to spearhead the downturn, due to a sharp decline in prices for oil and its derivatives. That said, soaring prices for precious metals should soften the overall drop. Meanwhile, base metal prices are seen finishing this year at close to the previous year’s levels. Global commodity prices are projected to recover next year, mostly led by a rebound in energy prices.
ENERGY | Energy prices dive in September on weak demand Energy prices plunged 5.8% in September, swinging from August’s 4.1% month-on-month increase and marking the first slump in prices since the height of the global lockdowns in April. The recovery in energy prices stalled at the end of Q3, derailed by a weaker-than-expected recovery in demand amid soaring numbers of new Covid-19 cases across the world and a gradual rise in global supply levels. In a similar fashion, prices for oil derivatives slid on a worsening consumption outlook following the end of summer driving season in the northern hemisphere. Natural gas prices also slipped amid lingering oversupply conditions. That said, prices for thermal coal and coking coal edged up in the month. The energy price outlook remained grim in September, with the global surge in Covid-19 cases continuing to weigh on short-term demand prospects. As such, FocusEconomics panelists forecast a 26.2% year-on-year dive in Q4 2020 (previous edition: -25.4% yoy). Energy prices are expected to regain some lost ground next year, however, as the global economic recovery gathers steam. That said, uncertainty over the course of the pandemic, geopolitical risks stemming from the U.S. elections, trade wars and tensions in the Middle East, and volatile global oil supply levels all cloud the outlook. Our panelists see energy prices growing 16.1% in annual terms in Q4 2021.
BASE METALS | Base metal price growth remains upbeat in August Prices for base metals rose 4.7% on a monthly basis in August, softening slightly from July’s 6.6% jump, yet still marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. Base metal prices continued to rise in September, albeit at the slowest pace in four months, as strong industrial demand in top consumer China was partly offset by moderating economic momentum in most other major economies. A sustained economic recovery in China, growing optimism over the country’s future infrastructure projects and a stronger yuan bolstered demand for base metals, especially steel, at the end of Q3. Uncertainty over an additional U.S. fiscal stimulus package, geopolitical risks and a reintroduction of lockdown restrictions in some countries capped the overall upturn, however. The outlook for base metal prices improved further at the end of Q3, chiefly thanks to a healthy demand outlook in top metals consumer China amid the government’s fiscal spending program, which includes plans for massive infrastructure projects. As a result, FocusEconomics panelists project prices rise 1.7% annually in Q4 2020. Turning to next year, prices are seen edging up further as the global economy shrugs off the constraining effects of Covid-19, although frail economic conditions, a possible flareup of trade tensions and volatile supply conditions all cloud the outlook. Our panelists project prices to edge up 0.8% in Q4 2021.
PRECIOUS METALS | Precious metal prices decline in September Precious metal prices fell 1.9% month-on-month in September, contrasting August’s 8.7% upturn and marking the first fall in prices since March. The plethora of factors sent shivers throughout markets over the past month, as hopes of another U.S. stimulus package faded rapidly, following the Fed’s call for further fiscal stimulus amid economic headwinds. Moreover, a more dovish ECB and a resurgence in Covid-19 cases in Europe also raised economic uncertainty. Consequently, investors sought safety in the USD and away from precious metals as prices tend to fall in times of heightened uncertainty. Gold, silver and platinum prices all tumbled in September, although palladium prices remained upbeat due to still-strong demand from the automotive sector. The outlook for precious metal prices remains robust, with FocusEconomics panelists projecting prices to jump 30.7% annually in Q4 2020 (previous edition: +26.9% yoy). The bullish outlook chiefly reflects sufficient safe-haven demand for gold due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, and widespread interest rate cuts by major central banks. Next year, silver and platinum prices are seen rising further on a recovery in industrial demand.
AGRICULTURAL | Agricultural prices surge in September Agricultural prices rose 6.8% month-on-month in September after falling 0.2% in August, marking the strongest increase since June 2019. Septmeber’s price jump was largely driven by higher prices for corn, soybeans and wheat, likely due to solid demand conditions and downbeat supply outlooks. Moreover, cocoa, coffee and cotton prices also received a boost thanks to stronger demand, partly due to the ongoing recovery in economic activity. That said, wool prices continued to fall amid still-subdued demand from Chinese buyers. FocusEconomics panelists project agricultural prices to decline 2.0% year-on-year in Q4 2020 (previous edition: -4.2% yoy). Tepid demand for wool, sugar and palm oil, amid weaker global retail sales and a softer appetite for biofuels, will likely drive the overall fall. Next year, prices should rise due to stronger economic output, although uncertainty regarding U.S.–China trade tensions remains a key risk to the outlook. Our panelists forecast agricultural prices to rise 2.8% in annual terms in Q4 2021.
FocusEconomics - Commodities - October 2020
Outlook On the heels of the worst economic downturn in over a decade in Q2 owing to the Covid-19 fallout, recent data hints at a fragile rec...
Economic Update: Turkish Outlook Deteriorates
On the heels of the worst economic downturn in over a decade in Q2 owing to the Covid-19 fallout, recent data hints at a fragile recovery in Q3. After two months of robust gains as the economy reopened, industrial production cooled markedly in July in monthly terms as output in the mining and manufacturing sectors lost stride. Additionally, despite a strong rebound in June, merchandise exports contracted again in both July and August amid still-subdued foreign demand. Leading data also shows a slight retreat in sentiment, with business confidence edging lower in September as views over the general business situation deteriorated. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI slipped in the same month on signs of demand losing strength. Complicating matters, Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating deeper into junk from B1 to B2 on 14 September, citing increasing risks of a balance of payments crisis.
At its 24 September meeting, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) took market analysts by surprise and raised the one-week repo rate by 200 basis points to 10.25% from 8.25%. Market analysts had largely expected the Central Bank to stand pat, but the MPC instead delivered the first rate hike since the country’s currency crisis in 2018.
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