Total number of vaccination doses administered. This is counted as a single dose, and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime (e.g. people receive multiple doses).

Economic Consensus Forecast Latin America

Latin America

In 2021, the regional economy should rebound from last year’s Covid-19-induced slump. However, still-tight containment measures due to the elevated number of new infections will constrain the pace of recovery. Moreover, sluggish vaccine rollouts, worsening public finances, high unemployment rates and social and political turbulence pose downside risks. 

Regional inflation jumped to 7.7% in March (February: 7.0%), the highest reading since January 2020, on mounting price pressures in heavyweights Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Inflation should gain speed this year, fueled by economic recoveries and loose monetary policy stances in the region. However, still-large output gaps should temper upward price pressures.

Argentina

This year, the economy should recover some of 2020’s Covid19-induced losses, as both domestic and external demand revive amid the gradual removal of restrictions. However, elevated inflation, currency controls and policy uncertainty will slow the pace of recovery, while protracted debt renegotiations and pandemic-related risks cloud the outlook.

Argentina Inflation
Inflation increased to 42.6% in March from February’s 40.7%, logging the highest print since June 2020. Meanwhile, March’s month-on-month increase in consumer prices was the fastest in 18 months. Going forward, inflation should gain further speed due to the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit through a sustained expansion of the monetary base.

Brazil

The economy is expected to rebound this year on the back of reviving domestic and external demand. Risks are skewed to the downside, however, amid mounting public debt levels, strained government finances and a faltering reform agenda. Uncertainty over further virus flare-ups and the speed of vaccine deployment clouds the outlook further.

Brazil Inflation
Inflation jumped to 6.1% in March from February’s 5.2%, marking the highest print since December 2016 and climbing even further above the Central Bank’s target rate of 3.75% for end-2021. Although price pressures are expected to moderate from current levels later this year amid labor market slack and a large output gap, rising fuel and food prices pose upside risks.

Chile

The economy should rebound robustly this year, as the gradual removal of restrictions domestically and abroad amid supportive fiscal and monetary policies fuels domestic and external demand. That said, uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the pandemic, as well as the constitutional process and November’s general elections, poses a downside risk.

Chile Inflation
Inflation came in at February’s 2.9% in March. Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.4% in February. This year, inflation should hover around its current levels, fueled by recovering activity and a loose monetary policy stance but tempered by a still-sizable output gap.

Colombia

The economy is seen growing solidly this year on the back of firming domestic activity and a recovering external sector, also supported by higher oil prices relative to last year. However, soaring new Covid-19 infections in April and a still-low vaccination rate threaten tighter restrictions ahead, posing a key downside risk.

Colombia Inflation
Inflation edged down to 1.5% in March from February’s 1.6%, moving further below the lower bound of the Central Bank’s target range of 2.0–4.0%. Looking ahead, price pressures are expected to intensify as domestic activity gradually recovers, with inflation ending the year closer to the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target band.

Mexico
Activity is poised to rebound in 2021 amid stronger remittances and as improving foreign demand—particularly from the U.S.— buoys exports. However, weak fiscal support will likely weigh on domestic demand. The still-raging pandemic, a slow vaccine rollout and an uncertain business environment cloud the outlook further.

Mexico Inflation
Inflation climbed to 4.7% in March from 3.8% in February, moving above Banxico’s 2.0–4.0% target range and marking an over two-year high. Inflation is seen above-target in Q2 on higher energy prices, before dipping somewhat towards the end of the year.

Peru
The economy is projected to rebound at the fastest pace in the region this year, with higher consumer and capital spending driving domestic demand and improving foreign demand supporting exports. However, a relatively slow vaccine rollout clouds the outlook, while mounting political unrest could suppress business and consumer confidence in the first half of the year.

Peru Inflation 
Inflation inched up to 2.6% in March from 2.4% in February, moving further towards the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 1.0–3.0% target range. Inflation is forecast to fall from its current level this year as easing supply chain disruptions and a projected strengthening of the sol outweigh higher household spending and improving labor market dynamics.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast - LatinFocus April 2021

Key Takeaways:

In the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March 16-17 meeting, participants noted the potential for a stronger economic recovery given the improvement in vaccinations and in economic data. Regarding inflation, the FOMC agreed that “they would aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent” and that they expected to “maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until those [inflation and employment] outcomes were achieved.”

The ISM Service Index jumped 8.4 points in March to 63.7, the second-largest increase in series history and the highest reading in series history. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. The business activity, new orders, and employment indices all increased, with both the business activity and new orders indices reaching record highs.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand of goods and services rose 4.2 percent in March from a year ago. Core PPI (excludes energy, food, and trade services) increased 3.1 percent from a year ago, the fastest pace of annual growth since September 2018.

Consumer (non-mortgage) credit outstanding jumped by $27.6 billion to $4.2 trillion in February, the largest increase since November 2017, according to the Federal Reserve Board. The increase was driven mostly by nonrevolving credit (largely student and auto loans), which rose by $19.5 billion, while revolving credit (largely credit cards) rose by around $8.1 billion.

The real goods trade deficit (an input into the calculation of net exports) widened by approximately $3.0 billion to $99.1 billion in February, according to the Census Bureau. This represented the widest deficit since the series began in 1994. Exports fell 5.3 percent, while imports fell 2.0 percent. Real exports were down 8.0 percent from the level seen a year ago.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that job openings increased by 268,000 in February to 7.4 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Total hires increased by 273,000 to 5.7 million, while total separations rose by 133,000 to 5.5 million.

Factory orders and shipments fell 0.8 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, in February, according to the Census Bureau. Nondurable goods orders decreased 0.4 percent over the month but were up 0.5 percent from a year ago. Core capital goods orders dropped 0.9 percent, while shipments fell 1.1 percent in February.

Forecast Impact:

February data continued to be affected by the severe weather seen across much of the country during that month, while March data continued to show strength. The March jump in service sector activity and the increase in February consumer revolving credit highlights the extent of recovering consumer demand, though March service sector activity was likely bolstered in part by the rollout of the $1.9 trillion March stimulus legislation. Regardless, these data support our expectation of an acceleration in consumer spending. Growing consumer demand coupled with comparative weakness abroad is affecting trade, leading to imports outweighing exports and a widening of the trade deficit. Therefore, we expect that net exports will likely drag on Q1 GDP growth. Producer prices continued to climb in March, with headline PPI recording the fastest pace of annual growth since September 2011. Despite the large PPI growth, the Fed is unlikely to change its current accommodative stance, as its stated position is to wait for data to match its expectations for both employment and a long-run inflation average of two percent. The February JOLTS survey does reflect improvement in the labor market, with job openings reaching the highest level in just over two years, though employment levels still remain considerably below the pre-COVID peak.

The National Intelligence Council has released the seventh edition of its quadrennial Global Trends report. Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World is an unclassified assessment of the forces and dynamics that the NIC anticipates are likely to shape the national security environment over the next 20 years.

Global Trends 2040 identifies four structural forces that will shape the future – demographics, the environment, economics, and technology – and assesses how they affect decisions and outcomes. It further describes five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, based on different combinations of the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertainties. It ends with a series of graphics displaying key demographic trends in nine geographic regions.

The NIC has delivered Global Trends to each incoming or returning U.S. presidential administration since 1997 as an unclassified assessment of the strategic environment, reflecting a broad range of expert opinion in the United States and abroad. The report is intended to help policymakers and citizens anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures.

The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of IC collaboration and outreach.

Read The Report Here: Global Trends 2040

• The World: While momentum in early 2021 will be curtailed in some countries by tougher restrictions amid the spread of new Covid-19 variants, the global economy should rebound later in the year on supportive fiscal policy and a quickening vaccine rollout. Potential vaccine resistant strains of the virus, logistical problems in the rollout and U.S.-China tensions pose downside risks.
  
  
• Canada: The economy is set to rebound strongly this year, following 2020’s sharp downturn. Pent-up demand and heightened household savings should support private spending, while strong fiscal and monetary stimulus should stoke investment activity. However, uncertainty surrounding the vaccine rollout, new variants of the virus and the evolution of commodity prices cloud the outlook.
  
  
• Euro Area: GDP is set to rebound this year amid the gradual lifting of restrictions. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies, unleashed pent-up demand and the disbursement of recovery funds will rekindle domestic spending, while reviving foreign demand will boost exports. A slow vaccine rollout crippling the tourist season, rising public debts and banks’ bad loans cloud the outlook.
  
  
• Japan: The economy is projected to recover some lost ground this year following 2020’s sharp contraction. The external sector is set to drive the revival, with exports surging on increased foreign demand, while domestically, consumer and capital spending should improve. A resurgence in Covid-19 cases and the reimposition of related restrictions pose risks to the outlook.
  
  
• United Kingdom: While activity in Q1 will be depressed, momentum should pick up sharply from Q2 onwards, aided by a rapid vaccine rollout, supportive fiscal and monetary stances and the progressive lifting of restrictions. However, the emergence of new Covid-19 variants and disruption as the UK adapts to its new trade agreement with the EU pose downside risks.
  
  
• United States: This year, GDP should rebound as the impact of the pandemic fades and the labor market recovers. Stronger fiscal stimulus under Biden’s administration and unprecedented monetary stimulus should also support activity. That said, the uncertain evolution of the pandemic and ongoing tense relations with China pose downside risks.
  
  
• Switzerland: The economy is set to expand strongly this year as external demand recovers and domestic restrictions are gradually eased. However, the uncertain evolution of the virus, a relatively sluggish vaccine rollout and somewhat tense ties with the EU due to disagreements over the renegotiation of the trading relationship pose downside risks.

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

WORLD
The economy is set to rebound strongly this year, following 2020’s sharp downturn. Pent-up demand and elevated household saving should support private spending, while strong fiscal and monetary stimulus should stoke investment activity. However, uncertainty surrounding the vaccine rollout, new variants of the virus and the evolution of commodity prices clouds the outlook.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast East & South Asia
Outlook Improves - Focus Economics

The economy expanded 6.5% in Q4, more than expected, underpinned by an export surge and robust industrial output. Moreover, private consumption likely also gained steam, as suggested by recovering retail sales. That said, momentum in December appeared more mixed: While industrial production picked up speed, retail sales growth slowed, potentially due to cold weather. Turning to 2021, GDP growth will be flattered in Q1 by a highly favorable base effect. However, underlying momentum will likely be hit somewhat by the coronavirus outbreak in North China and tighter social distancing rules. In politics, the inauguration of Joe Biden as the U.S. president should herald a rhetorically more civil relationship between the two powers, although any rollback of U.S. tariffs and restrictions on Chinese tech firms is unlikely in the near term. 

The recovery from the coronavirus-induced slump is expected to strengthen this year amid stronger domestic and external demand. That said, a possible worsening of the domestic Covid-19 outbreak, uncertainty regarding the China-U.S. relationship and elevated corporate debt levels—against the backdrop of a string of recent bond defaults— pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 8.4% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel foresees GDP expanding 5.3%. 

Inflation came in at 0.2% in December, contrasting November’s 0.5% drop in prices—which had marked the first annual decline since 2009. Price pressures should rise in 2021 thanks to firming energy prices and stronger domestic demand, but improved food supply—particularly of pork, as farmers rebuild their hog herds in the wake of African swine fever—will limit the increase. Our panelists forecast that inflation will average 1.7% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.2% in 2022. 

In recent weeks, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its policy settings unchanged as the economy remained on the path to recovery. Looking forward, most panelists see the Bank’s key interest rate levers unchanged in 2021, although the PBOC is likely to gradually withdraw liquidity in a bid to dampen down on systemic financial risks. Panelists project the one-year deposit rate to end 2021 at 1.53% and 2022 at 1.63%. The loan prime rate is seen ending 2021 at 3.85% and 2022 at 3.94%. 

On 22 January, the yuan traded at 6.48 CNY per USD, appreciating 0.9% month-on-month, due to a combination of significant interest rate and growth differentials compared to China’s main trading partners. The currency is expected to remain broadly at current levels ahead. Our panelists see the yuan ending 2021 at 6.47 CNY per USD and 2022 at 6.45 per USD.

Brilliant paper discussing millionaires in Britain between 1928-1929. An explosion of the super-rich which was brought on by a lack of competition within businesses and discusses  a lot of wealth from business. Economic History Review (EHR) has long been a favorite, and this is not disappoint. Below is an abstract and a link to the full article. 

- Chad Hagan

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This article examines the composition of Britain's `millionaire’ population during the late 1920s and early 1930s, based on data for living millionaires (in contrast to previous studies, which have focused on wealth at death). Using tabulated data compiled by the Inland Revenue for all persons on incomes over £50,000 per annum, it explores the factor incomes of Britain's millionaire population and their main sources of income, by sector. It then analyses a unique individual‐level data set of British millionaires, compiled by the Inland Revenue for the 1928/9 tax year, to show their sectoral and geographical composition. Most millionaires are shown to be `businesspeople’ rather than rentiers, while landed millionaires represented only a small proportion of the total. Businesspeople millionaires are shown to be disproportionately active in a relatively narrow range of sectors, the common characteristic of which was the potential to generate abnormal profits, mainly through cartelization or amalgamation. Thus, rather than revealing the sectors most important to national wealth, or competitive advantage, the clustering of millionaires primarily reflects rising barriers to competition in interwar Britain and the abnormal profits they generated.

Full EHR article at Wiley

Japan Is Ready to Become a Member of Five Eyes

Five Eyes is a five country pact composed of Anglo-Saxon countries sharing intelligence. A coalition of sorts. With Japan joining as a member we see a Chinese strategy emerging. Tokyo has wanted to join Five Eyes for years, long weary of China's encroachment. Technically this would make the organization “Six Eyes”, depending on how formal of a membership Japan takes.  - Chad Hagan

BBC: US singer-songwriter Bob Dylan has sold the rights to his entire song catalogue to Universal Music Group (UMG). The deal is one of the biggest acquisitions in Universal's history and means the company will collect all future income from the songs.

Hey! Chad Hagan here and I figured I would help unwind this deal for anyone confused. There has been a lot of talk in Mr. Dylan selling his catalog. 

Perhaps this is excellent timing on Dylan's part. 2020 was the year all concerts shuttered and many musicians - even established multimillionaires like Dylan - have felt the strain.  To begin, Dylan is nearing 80 years old and may have simply wanted to get his affairs in order - the deal was rumored to be at $200m and $450m (£150m - £340m). Did UMG overpay or underpay? I think they paid market rate,  and we do not know all the specifics. UMG is private - owned in part by Vivendi (90%) and Tencent (10%) - and there is a big chance they will go public in the next year or two. Also important to note, Columbia Records (owned by Sony), Dylan's longtime corporate label and the oldest recording company in America will still be involved in the relationship. To what extent I do not know. 

What about Taylor Swift? You cannot compare the two. First off Taylor is an anomaly, she has had a number of hits, including cross-over hits and hits that can be described as international hits all in a very short career. Swift's catalog may be one of the better performing catalogs at the moment but whether this continues no one knows. Also, the public has heard about her music catalog being sold twice, when it was first purchased and then when it was resold. Swift's team do a very good job managing her brand, and the constant noise surrounding her catalog is a great example of their master spinning. That said, when the chips fall Dylan may have been paid more that $300M. 

Will other Artists Follow Suit? For sure. Stevie Nicks sold 80 percent of her catalog to Primary Wave Music. 60's music icon David Crosby tweeted the other day that he was exploring such options. David Bowie and The Beatles are perhaps the best know artists who  pioneered monetizing their music. Recently Curtis James Jackson III (50 Cent) arranged a prepayment for his catalog administration, which is typical and reminiscent of artist advances during vinyl record, cassettes and compact discs days. Top artists with performing catalogs are viewed as safe haven commodities to investors. In year past Paul McCartney's Christmas song "Wonderful Christmastime" has generated over $500K per year in royalties alone.

A brighter outlook but recovery will be gradual.

Faster vaccine deployment and better cooperation for its distribution would boost confidence and strengthen the pickup but continued uncertainty risks further weakness. Vaccination campaigns, concerted health policies and government financial support are expected to lift global GDP by 4.2% in 2021 after a fall of 4.2% this year. The recovery would be stronger if vaccines are rolled out fast, boosting confidence and lowering uncertainty.

Delays to vaccination deployment, difficulties controlling new virus outbreaks and failure to learn lessons from the first wave would weaken the outlook.

The bounce-back will be strongest in the Asian countries that have brought the virus under control but even by the end of 2021, many economies will have shrunk from 2019 levels before the pandemic.

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Moderate growth is set to continue provided the pandemic can be contained effectively

The near-term global outlook remains highly uncertain. Growth prospects depend on many factors, including the magnitude, duration and frequency of new COVID-19 outbreaks, the degree to which these can be effectively contained, the time until an effective vaccine can be widely deployed, and the extent to which significant fiscal and monetary policy actions continue to support demand. Recent developments point to a rising possibility that effective vaccines will be widely deployed towards the end of 2021, improving the prospects for a durable recovery. However, time will be needed to manufacture and distribute the vaccine around the world and ensure it reaches those most at risk. Until then, sporadic and potentially sizeable outbreaks of the virus are likely to continue, as currently being experienced in many Northern Hemisphere economies, necessitating continued containment measures and strategies that differ across countries. Targeted restrictions on mobility and activity will need to be used to address any new outbreaks, accompanied by reinforced personal hygiene measures. Limits on personal interactions are assumed to persist, such as physical distancing requirements and restrictions on the size of gatherings. Restrictions on people crossing national borders are also expected to remain in force, at least partially. Voluntary physical distancing may also continue to restrain household spending.

Living with the virus for at least another six to nine months is likely to prove challenging. The impact of renewed periods of tighter containment measures on activity and confidence will differ across economies, depending on the effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and quarantine arrangements, and the availability of sufficient hospital capacity. However, even where outbreaks are more easily controlled, some of the service sectors most affected by restrictions may be disrupted. With these sectors accounting for a sizeable share of total activity and employment in many economies, adverse spillovers from job losses and bankruptcies into demand in other parts of the economy are likely. Persistent unemployment would also worsen the risk of poverty and deprivation for millions of informal workers. Pre-existing vulnerabilities that have been heightened by the pandemic, such as high corporate and sovereign debt in many countries, and trade tensions between the major economies, could also slow the pace of the recovery if there are prolonged outbreaks of the virus.

Based on the assumptions set out above, a gradual but uneven recovery in the global economy is projected to continue in the next two years following a temporary interruption at the end of the current year. After a decline of 4¼ per cent in 2020, global GDP is projected to pick up by 4¼ per cent in 2021, and a further 3¾ per cent in 2022 (Table 1.1; Figure 1.13, Panel A). OECD GDP is projected to rise by around 3¼ per cent per annum in 2021 and 2022, after dropping by around 5½ per cent in 2020. By the end of 2021, the level of global output is projected to have returned to that at the end of 2019 (Figure 1.13, Panel C), although this is not the case in all countries.

Output is set to remain persistently weaker than projected prior to the pandemic (Figure 1.13, Panel D), suggesting that the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic is high. Such shortfalls are projected to be relatively low in China, Korea, Japan and some Northern European economies, at between 1-2 per cent in 2022. The median advanced and emerging-market economy could have lost the equivalent of 4 to 5 years of per capita real income growth by 2022. Initial estimates of potential output growth in the aftermath of the pandemic also highlight the likelihood of permanent costs from the outbreak, with potential output growth in the OECD economies projected to slow to just over 1¼ per cent per annum in 2021-22, some ½ percentage point weaker than immediately prior to the crisis.

Considerable heterogeneity in developments in the major economies is set to persist, both between advanced and emerging-market economies, and between regions (Figure 1.13, Panel B). The economic impact of the pandemic and its aftermath has been relatively well contained in many Asia-Pacific and Northern European economies, reflecting effective containment measures, including well-resourced test, track and isolate systems, and familiarity with precautionary measures to protect against risks from transmissible diseases. In contrast, the measures required to control virus outbreaks in other parts of Europe and other emerging-market economies have been prolonged and involved much deeper declines in output.

- A gradual recovery is underway in Japan, with GDP growth projected to be around 2¼ per cent in 2021 and 1½ per cent in 2022, following an output decline of 5¼ per cent in 2020. Improving external demand will help exports strengthen further, but weak real income growth is likely to hold back private consumption. Strong fiscal measures have helped to cushion activity this year but a tighter fiscal stance in 2021, despite the new supplementary budget announced in November, will slow the pace of the recovery.

- In the euro area, GDP has declined by 7½ per cent this year, and near-term prospects are weak. Output is projected to drop by close to 3% in the fourth quarter of 2020, reflecting the recent reintroduction of stringent containment measures in most countries. Provided virus outbreaks can be effectively contained in the near term, and confidence restored, a moderate recovery is projected in 2021-22. However, area-wide pre-pandemic output levels may not be fully regained until after 2022. After sizeable support this year, fiscal policy is set to be broadly neutral in 2021 and mildly restrictive in 2022 despite the modest outlook, but Next Generation EU grants should help support investment in the hardest-hit economies during the projection period.

- A solid recovery is expected to continue in China, with GDP growth projected to be around 8% in 2021 and 5% in 2022. Monetary stimulus is now being withdrawn but fiscal policy is set to remain supportive. Strong investment in real estate and infrastructure, helped by policy stimulus and stronger credit growth, and improved export performance are driving the pick-up, and helping to boost external demand in many commodity-producing economies and key supply-chain partners in Asia. Progress in rebalancing the economy has however slowed, and significant financial risks remain from shadow banking and elevated corporate sector debt.

- The impact of the pandemic in many other emerging-market economies has been prolonged relative to that in China, reflecting difficulties in getting the pandemic under control, high poverty and informality levels, declining tourist inflows, and limited scope for policy support. Gradual recoveries are now starting in most economies, but the shortfalls from expectations prior to the pandemic are likely to remain sizeable.

- Output in India is projected to rise by 8% in FY 2021-22 provided confidence improves, after having declined by 10% in FY 2020-21. Further reductions in policy interest rates should help to support demand, if the current upturn in inflation subsides, but there is limited scope for additional fiscal measures, and pressures on corporate balance sheets and banking sector bad loans are also likely to restrain the pace of the upturn.

- A gradual recovery is projected to continue in Brazil, with GDP rising by 2½ per cent in 2021 and 2¼ per cent in 2022, after contracting by 6% this year. Strong fiscal and monetary support have helped to protect incomes and prevent a larger output decline this year. High unemployment and the planned withdrawal of some crisis-related fiscal measures will temper household spending in 2021, but historically low real interest rates and favourable credit conditions should help investment to strengthen.

Read more at OECD