United Kingdom Growth was seemingly solid in Q1, as the progressive removal of virtually all Covid-19 restrictions supported the services se...
Major Economies - May 2022
China’s Bid for World Domination: Belt and Road Initiative by Chadwick Hagan Published by The Epoch Times The Belt and Road Initiative (BR...
Column: China’s Bid for World Domination
“Sri Lanka warned of an unprecedented default and halted payments on foreign debt, an extraordinary step taken to preserve its dwindling do...
Sri Lanka Heads Towards Default
Outlook deteriorates After GDP growth accelerated in Q4 due to stronger domestic demand, momentum has likely waned in Q1 as the latest Covid...
United States Economic Growth Outlook Deteriorates
After a soft Q4 outturn, most key indicators from the statistical office suggest a stronger start to 2022: January–February readings for ind...
Mainland China Economic Outlook
Nickel prices averaged USD 24,016 per metric ton in February, which was 7.8% higher than January’s price of USD 22,285 per metric ton. Febru...
Nickel Forecast 2022
Since the late 2010s there has been re- newed debate about the merits and demerits of progressive wealth taxation. This debate has largely b...
Wealth Taxation: Lessons from History and Recent Developments By Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman
1. Politics Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in Brazil's 2022 presidential election. The US GOP will still suffer identity and leadership...
What Will Happen In 2022?
1. Politics
Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in Brazil's 2022 presidential election.
The US GOP will still suffer identity and leadership issues, despite a surge in conservative popularity.
Roe v Wade will suffer a defeat, adding to the GOPs identify issues going further.
The border will remain a political issue and will likely not improve during 2022.
American hegemony will take further hits, as battles with Russia and China continue on.
Boris will remain in power.
The UK monarchy will not fail.
2. Economics
American society will not become more equitable.
American jobs will continue to unbundle from the previous era's form of employment. More for less.
Influencers, a new phenomenon, will be replaced by virtual influencers.
Plastic will continue to come under fire and suffer bans en masse, but plastic companies will not stop making plastic (at least this year).
A Legal Framework for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations This analysis was written by David Kerr (Principal, Cowrie LLC) and Miles Jenni...
A Legal Framework for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
It turns out Amazon collects a striking amount of information from customers. Perhaps more than we expected. U.S. Amazon customers can obtai...
Technology Spotlight: What Amazon Knows About Customers
OVERVIEW: OUTLOOK REMAINS STABLE GDP growth has likely lost some momentum in the third quarter, after accelerating slightly in Q2 on the bac...
Economic Forecast + Review: United States of America
GDP growth has likely lost some momentum in the third quarter, after accelerating slightly in Q2 on the back of stronger private consumption and rebounding exports. In August, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index—a leading indicator for GDP—moderated notably from July due to weaker industrial output and private consumption activity. Moreover, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since February in August, while the increase in nonfarm payrolls eased notably in the same month and average retail sales declined in July–August—all further pointing to a slowdown in private consumption in the quarter. Furthermore, despite remaining upbeat in July–August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was below Q2’s average. On the Covid-19 front, daily new cases of the virus have remained elevated in recent weeks, despite solid vaccination progress, which is likely dampening GDP prospects for Q4.
ISM manufacturing index rises slightly in August The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index ticked up to 59.9 in August from 59.5 in July, consequently the index remained wellabove the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector. August’s slightly stronger expansion was the result of faster growth in new orders and production. That said, employment levels decreased notably relative to the previous month. On the price front, input prices continued to rise on the back of higher raw material prices but at a slower rate compared to the month prior.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to increase 6.0% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2022, panelists see industrial production rising 4.0%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 6.1% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.1%, which is unchanged from last month.
Retail sales rebound in August Retail sales grew 0.7% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in August, which contrasted July’s 1.8% decrease. Looking at the details of the release, August’s pick up was broad-based. Food and beverages and general merchandise stores output gained steam, while motor vehicle and parts dealers production contracted at a softer rate. Lastly, non-store retailer sales rose at a stronger rate, while gasoline stations sales moderated. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 15.1% in August, which matched July’s expansion. Meanwhile, the trend improved significantly, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at 15.3% in August, up from July’s 14.3% reading. Commenting on August’s print, Francis Généreux, a senior economist at Desjardins, stated: “The growth in retail sales in August, particularly if we exclude motor vehicles, is encouraging and suggests the new wave of the pandemic is not having a major impact on the economy. This could further reassure Federal Reserve officials.” FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 7.9% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the panel sees private consumption increasing 3.8%, which is down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
GDP Growth GDP growth lost some momentum in Q2, after hitting an over 10-year high in Q1. The slowdown was predominately driven by a weaker ...
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