War often leads to inflation, and while inflation is not directly responsible for recession, price increases and decreased economic activit...




War often leads to inflation, and while inflation is not directly responsible for recession, price increases and decreased economic activity often lead to a recession.

When I wrote about the resilience of the U.S. dollar weeks back, I had no idea we would step into another conflict. Granted, the Israel conflict is a conflict I support and understand, but it does not take much to figure out that bombing a territory while simultaneously sending billions in aid to the territory being bombed—Gaza—makes for an interesting narrative.

The United States has spent more than $75 billion on the Russia–Ukraine war, and that amount does not count the money given to allies to support the effort.

Between Jan. 24, 2022, and July 31, 2023, the United States has sent $26.4 billion in financial support, while $46.6 billion has gone to military expenses.

Now, President Joe Biden has asked Congress for $105 billion for Ukraine, Israel, and the border.

For a $180 billion, where does this leave us?



Since the arrival of cryptocurrencies, it caught worldwide eyeballs from being proposed as an alternative currency and digital m...


Since the arrival of cryptocurrencies, it caught worldwide eyeballs from being proposed as an alternative currency and digital money to becoming one of the lucrative investment choices.

Apart from regular users, it also caught the eyeballs of hackers and cyber attackers. As a result, several crypto exchanges, crypto companies, blockchain networks, and others face crypto hack attacks from time to time.

So, how many crypto hacks usually occur in a year? How much amount has been lost to crypto hacks? What are the popular types of hacks?

Let’s find out all these in this mega crypto hacks report:

Key Insights and Stats
In 2023 alone, $1.89 billion was lost in 297 crypto hack attacks. That is $289K lost every hour due to crypto hacks this year.
In 2022, crypto hacks reached an all-time high of $3.5 Billion stolen in 284 heist incidents.

Since 2011 to till date, Crypto companies and exchanges have lost a total amount of $12.36 billion in 1207 incidents.

Since 2011, about 192 crypto exchanges have been hacked and lost $3.80 billion in total.

2018 was the worst for crypto exchanges as they collectively lost $1.1 Billion to hacking and theft incidents.

There is also a significant rise in DeFi or decentralized finance hacks – the number stands at 93 and 76 for 2022 & 2023, respectively, leading to a collective loss of $1.12 billion.

Talking about lost Bitcoin and Ethereum, since 2011, there has been a total loss of 1,454,762 BTC and 1,175,082 ETH to different hacks. If you look at these numbers from today’s BTC & ETH price points, the numbers will stand at $40.27 billion and $1.93 billion, respectively. 

Contract vulnerability and flash loan attacks are two common hacks, leading to a cumulative loss of $2.75 billion since 2011.

The division among producer, transit, and consumer states of illicit drugs has clearly broken down since the late 1980’s. The 19...

The division among producer, transit, and consumer states of illicit drugs has clearly broken down since the late 1980’s. The 1990’s produced a globalization of illicit drug markets, with at least 134 countries and territories facing drug abuse problems in the 1990’s. Seventy-five percent of all countries 
report the abuse of heroin and two-thirds the abuse of cocaine. 

Whereas previously Western Europe and 
the U.S. were the primary consumers of heroin, there has been a dramatic increase in heroin addicts in countries that previously had no problem, e.g., Pakistan and Iran. At the global level, heroin and cocaine are the most significant drugs in terms of treatment demands, drug mortality, and drug related violence, including organized crime.

Opiates are the primary problem drugs in Western and Eastern Europe. On average, opiates account for three quarters of all treatment demand, and are also responsible for the large majority of drug-related mortality and morbidity cases. 

In the years since its independence, Ukraine has become a significant conduit for Southwest Asian (Afghanistan and Pakistan) heroin bound for European markets. 

The volume of Southwest Asian heroin available for world markets has increased sharply in recent years and growing amounts are smuggled through Ukraine. Porous borders, understaffed and under funded counter-narcotics entities and the rise of organized crime syndicates have enabled traffickers to utilize Ukraine as a viable transit point. 

Further, Ukraine has become an opiate producer in its own right, cultivating approximately 300 new hectares of illicit poppy in 2000 (Khruppa).

Full report by Abt Associates

The death of the U.S. dollar has been greatly exaggerated. The death of the U.S. dollar has been greatly exaggerated, especially as of late....





The death of the U.S. dollar has been greatly exaggerated.

The death of the U.S. dollar has been greatly exaggerated, especially as of late. While COVID-19 and recording breaking spending from Washington D.C. has only empowered countless rumors of the U.S. dollar's impending doom, it is clear the U.S. dollar is still very much the world's de facto reserve currency.

In July, data from SWIFT, the global transfer network, reported “transactions involving the dollar at 46%,” an all-time high. By comparison, just over 3 percent were settled in China’s Yuan.

America’s economy is incredibly diversified. Internationally we have petrodollars, which are dollars paid to oil exporters for oil imports. This is unlikely to change and enhances the U.S. dollar's liquidity, not to mention, solidifies the narrative of the U.S. dollar as the unchallenged global reserve currency.

Naysayers can attack all they want, but the OPEC member countries of Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela need petrodollars. The United States is the largest consumer of oil in the world, and these OPEC countries count on oil exports to the United States as their main source of revenue.

You hear lots of rumbling about changes in Saudi Arabia, but with nearly 15 percent of the world's oil reserves, and more than 85 percent of revenues from oil sales, at the present moment, Saudi Arabia can only dream of independence from the United States, and the U.S. dollar.

Canada has evidence linking Indian diplomats to killing of Sikh activist  According to the Guardian: "Canada has evidence l...

Canada has evidence linking Indian diplomats to killing of Sikh activist 



According to the Guardian: "Canada has evidence linking Indian diplomats to killing of a Sikh activist."

Arindam Bagchi, a spokesperson for India’s foreign ministry, denied the allegation but stated: "elements linked to organised crime, linked to terrorists, secessionists or extremists who are operating freely, are being politically condoned, they seem to have a free run”.

This is quite interesting. India comes in with a Russian-like heavy hand, and kills in another country. While all countries are involved in covert state affairs, the most recent countries to act like this have been Russia and Saudi Arabia. Both of those countries are known to be heavy handed (to put it lightly). 

The statement from Bagchi is also revealing. On one hand he denys any involvement, and then follows with a critique of Canada's liberal laws. As a Westerner, I find myself at a crossroads toleraring terrorists, and allowing counterinsurgency operations to take place in the very country they intend to target. Still, assassinations are fascinating to read about, but bonkers to think about as a reality. 

- CH


Above image from AP Photos. "Secret Service agent brandishes a submachine gun while agents and police subdue John Hinckley behind him after he shot President Ronald Reagan and others in Washington on March 30, 1981." 

‘Countering Assad’s Proliferation Trafficking And Garnering Of Narcotics Act’’ or the ‘‘CAPTAGON Act’’. The act is an "INTERAGENCY STRA...

‘Countering Assad’s Proliferation Trafficking And Garnering Of Narcotics Act’’ or the ‘‘CAPTAGON Act’’.

The act is an "INTERAGENCY STRATEGY TO DISRUPT AND DIS-MANTLE NARCOTICS PRODUCTION AND TRAFFICKING AND AFFILIATED NETWORKS LINKED TO THE REGIME OF BASHAR AL-ASSAD IN SYRIA."

This is new to me. I had no idea Assad was a drug kingpin. But the threat is very real. Congress is notoriously slow, so the fact that Congress put forth a bill targeting Assad's international drug manufacturing and trafficking network, speaks volumes.

It seems Syria has turned into a narco-state since the destruction from the civil war. Assad is building up his fortune with drug money, creating a problem and offering to help solve the very same problem, but for a price.

"Captagon, a drug that is relatively unknown outside the Middle East, helped Syria turn into a narco-state after much of the international community cut off its economy due to its brutal crackdown on an uprising in 2011. It is a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant, fenethylline, which goes by the trade name captagon, and has become the center of an increasing number of drug busts across the Middle East. Experts say the vast majority of global captagon production occurs in Syria, with the Gulf region being its primary destination."
Here's a link to the full story at MSN.

POLAND'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IMPROVES  GDP rebounded quarter on quarter in Q1, but the economy likely swung back to contraction in Q2. Indu...





POLAND'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IMPROVES 
GDP rebounded quarter on quarter in Q1, but the economy likely swung back to contraction in Q2. Industrial production shrank month on month in April−June, while the PMI was stuck in contractionary terrain throughout the quarter and business confidence remained downbeat. Moreover, the external environment was unsupportive and interest rates remained elevated in the quarter. On the flip side, both inflation and the unemployment rate fell throughout Q2. Meanwhile, in mid-July the government announced that its embargo on Ukrainian grain would be extended until at least end-2023 to help support domestic agricultural prices. 

Also in July, the cabinet approved a plan to build the country’s first nuclear plant—which should start producing energy in 2033—in order to diversify the energy mix. Meanwhile, the country is massing troops on its border with Belarus following maneuvers by Wagner mercenaries. 

GDP will expand at a slower pace this year. Sticky inflation, high interest rates and a subdued Euro area economy will restrain activity. That said, lower energy prices compared to 2022 should lend some support to activity. Further spillovers from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war pose a downside risk. An agreement on the disbursement of EU funds poses an upside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.1% in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.8% in 2024.

Inflation fell to 11.5% in June (May: 13.0%). The reading was the lowest since March 2022 but remained well above the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% target band. Inflation should continue to fall during the remainder of the year but will remain above target due to pass-through effects and a higher minimum wage. Volatile commodity prices are a factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 12.0% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 6.0% on average in 2024. • At its 5–6 July meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75%, as had been anticipated by markets. The NBP stood pat one again in July due to moderating inflation and softening economic growth, as it expects previous rate hikes to support disinflation. Our panelists expect rates to remain high this year amid sticky inflation. FocusEconomics panelists see the NBP reference rate ending 2023 at 6.43% and ending 2024 at 5.08%. 

The zloty traded at PLN 4.41 per EUR on 28 July, appreciating 1.8% month on month. The PLN should lose ground by end-2023 as the Central Bank starts easing its monetary policy stance thanks to a moderation in inflation. The interest rate differential with the Euro area, the evolution of investors’ risk appetite and geopolitical tensions are factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see the zloty ending 2023 at PLN 4.59 per EUR and ending 2024 at PLN 4.60 per EUR.


REAL SECTOR
Decline in industrial output softens in June Industrial output declined 1.4% compared to the same month of the previous year in June, which was above May’s 2.8% decrease. Looking at the details of the release, mining and quarrying output plummeted in June, while manufacturing output declined at a milder pace. Meanwhile, electricity, gas and utilities production also dropped at a milder pace. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output rebounded, rising 0.7% in June (May: -1.0% mom). Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 9.6% in June, down from May’s minus 9.3%. FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production expanding 0.1% in 2023, which is down by 0.6 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 4.1% in 2024. 

Retail sales growth rises in June Retail sales grew 2.1% year on year in June (May: +1.8% yoy). Looking at the details of the release, June’s pickup was broad-based, with the motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts, textiles, clothing and footwear and furniture, radio, tv and household appliances sub-sectors all improving. Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth fell to 12.7% in June (May: +14.2%), signaling a worsening trend in the retail trade sector. FocusEconomics panelists see retail sales expanding 5.7% in 2023, which is down by 0.5 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 5.9% in 2024. 

Manufacturing PMI falls in June The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 45.1 in June, down from 47.0 in May. Consequently, the index moved further below the 50-threshold, signaling a sharper deterioration in business conditions in the manufacturing sector from the prior month. Faster contractions in output, employment, new orders and purchasing activity were behind the deterioration in the headline reading. On the price front, input prices continued to decline, partially thanks to a further easing of supply chain pressures, leading output prices to fall at the sharpest pace on record. Lastly, output expectations for the year ahead remained subdued. FocusEconomics panelists see fixed investment expanding 3.7% in 2023, which is up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 2.6% in 2024. 

OUTLOOK
Business sentiment falls in July Business confidence fell to minus 14.0 in July from June’s minus 11.4. Therefore, the index moved further below the 0-threshold, indicating growing pessimism among businesses. Businesses’ assessments turned more negative over order books, the current general economic situation, the financial situation and employment. Moreover, firms were increasingly downbeat regarding expectations of future output, financial situation and the general economic situation.


MONETARY SECTOR 
Inflation falls in June Inflation came in at 11.5% in June, down from May’s 13.0%. June’s reading represented the lowest inflation rate since March 2022. The slowdown was primarily driven by slower rises in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and utilities as well as by falling prices for fuels. Annual average inflation declined to 15.9% in June from 16.3% in May. Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 11.5% in May (the latest month for which data is available), from the previous month’s 12.2%. Lastly, consumer prices were unchanged from the previous month in June, matching May’s reading. Commenting on the release, Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING, stated: “At this rate of decline, we will see CPI at 9.8% year-on-year in August, so we think the National Bank of Poland (NBP) can cut rates in September. By year- end, CPI inflation may slow closer to 7% yoy. [...] Hence another interest rate cut in October is also very likely.” FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 12.0% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.4 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 6.0% on average in 2024. 

Central Bank maintains pause in July At its 5–6 July meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75% once again, following June’s hold. The NBP also kept the Lombard rate at 7.25%, the discount rate at 6.85%, the rediscount rate at 6.80% and the deposit rate at 6.25%. July’s decision fell in line with market expectations. 

The NBP stood pat again in July due to moderating inflation and softening economic growth. On the price front, lower commodity prices, easing supply chain disruptions, weaker domestic activity and previous interest rate increases continued to support a disinflationary trend: Inflation fell to 11.5% in June (May: 13.0%). This prompted the Bank to revise its previous inflation forecast range for 2023 to 11.1–12.7%—previously estimated at 10.2–13.5% in March. Meanwhile, the NBP stressed that economic conditions have deteriorated globally and domestically, with annual output in retail sales, manufacturing and construction declining in May. 

In turn, the Bank lowered its 2023 GDP growth forecast range to -0.2–1.3%, from -0.1–1.8% in March, further supporting the rate hold. In its communiqué, the NBP reiterated its commitment to take upcoming decisions on the basis of incoming data on inflation and economic activity, while remaining ready to “take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability,” including through foreign exchange market interventions. Going forward, the majority of our panel anticipates interest rates ending the year at current levels. That said, Central Bank Governor Glapiński signaled in the NBP’s press conference that rate cuts could begin in September if inflation were to fall within single digits by then.


From the August edition of FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast - Central & Eastern Europe

Original attached. Translated.  Facing these savage hordes, asking for calm is no longer enough, it must be imposed! Restoring the republica...

Original attached. Translated. 


Facing these savage hordes, asking for calm is no longer enough, it must be imposed!

Restoring the republican order and putting the apprehended beyond the capacity to harm should be the only political signals to give.

In the face of such exactions, the police family must stand together.

Our colleagues, like the majority of citizens, can no longer bear the tyranny of these violent minorities. 

The time is not for union action, but for combat against these "pests". Surrendering, capitulating, and pleasing them by laying down arms are not the solutions in light of the gravity of the situation.

All means must be put in place to restore the rule of law as quickly as possible.

Once restored, we already know that we will relive this mess that we have been enduring for decades. 

For these reasons, Alliance Police Nationale and UNSA Police will take their responsibilities and warn the government from now on that at the end, we will be in action and without concrete measures for the legal protection of the Police, an appropriate penal response, significant means provided, the police will judge the extent of the consideration given.

Today the police are in combat because we are at war. Tomorrow we will be in resistance and the government will have to become aware of it."


Germany June 202 3 - FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast OUTLOOK IS MODERATE The economy fell into a technical recession in Q1, driven by a su...




Germany June 2023 - FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

OUTLOOK IS MODERATE
The economy fell into a technical recession in Q1, driven by a sustained fall in private spending. Consumers spent less on food and drinks, clothing and footwear and cars, likely as a result of high inflation. Turning to Q2, our panelists see the economy rebounding weakly. Inflation has retreated in the quarter thus far, helping to boost consumer sentiment. Retail sales rebounded in April, while services activity rose at the fastest rate since April 2022 in May. In addition, the external sector appears to be performing well, with merchandise exports up in April. That said, various data suggests ongoing weakness in the economy: Industrial output grew less in April than in Q1, and business conditions in the manufacturing sector fell to a two-year low in May, according to PMI data.

Since GDP figures were revised downward in late May, our panelists have downgraded their forecasts for GDP growth in 2023 by 0.3 percentage points on average. The Consensus is for GDP to fall slightly this year. Private spending will be knocked by high inflation and exports by a weak global economy. Key factors to watch include energy prices and world GDP growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.2% in 2023, which is down by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.1% in 2024.

Harmonized inflation fell to 6.3% in May from 7.6% in April as energy prices rose less. Inflation this year is set to linger above the 10-year average of 2.1% but ease compared to last year as the base effect toughens and domestic demand declines. Key factors to watch include natural gas prices and the government’s power price cap scheme. FocusEconomics panelists see harmonized consumer prices rising 6.2% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 2.9% on average in 2024.

REAL SECTOR
Industrial output rises in April Industrial production rose 0.3% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in April (March: -2.1% c.s.a. mom). The rebound came on the back of an improvement in industrial output and mining and quarrying production. Lastly, construction sector production gained steam, while energy output dipped at a steeper pace than in the previous month. On an annual basis, industrial production increased 1.6% in April, which was below March’s 2.3% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend improved, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at a one-year high of 0.2% in April, contrasting March’s minus 0.2%. FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production expanding 0.3% in 2023, which is up by 0.3 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 1.0% in 2024.

REAL SECTOR
Composite PMI deteriorates in June The HBOB Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.8 in June from May’s 53.9. As a result, the index remained above the 50.0 no- change mark, pointing to a continued, albeit moderating, improvement in private sector operating conditions from the previous month. The Manufacturing PMI stood at 41.0 in June, down from May’s 43.2 and a more than three-year low. Lastly, the Services PMI fell to 54.1 in June (May: 57.2), a three-month low. The print suggests that business activity is losing steam as demand weakens. In the manufacturing sector, output and new orders fell at the quickest rate in eight months, and employment rose only marginally. In the services sector, output and new orders expanded at slower paces, while employment grew at a slightly faster rate. In both sectors, respondents to the PMI survey pointed to elevated inflation and higher interest rates as the main brakes on activity. Looking at prices, in the manufacturing sector, input and output prices fell, while in the services sector, input and output prices continued to rise at a sharp pace. Finally, sentiment fell in both sectors.

The July 2023 edition of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast United States - Outlook improves  After growing 1.3% in quarter-on-quarter an...




The July 2023 edition of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

United States - Outlook improves 

After growing 1.3% in quarter-on-quarter annualized terms in Q1, the economy likely saw a similarly resilient outturn in Q2, notwithstanding banking sector stress and tighter monetary policy from the Fed. Payroll gains beat market expectations in April–May, which, together with ebbing inflation, has likely aided private spending—as suggested by rising retail sales in the first two months of the quarter. Moreover, the composite PMI averaged well above its Q1 level in Q2, pointing to an upturn in business activity. In other news, at the start of June, the Senate approved a bill to raise the debt ceiling, averting default. Finally, in mid-June, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken visited China in a bid to strengthen ties; however, diplomatic tensions and trade frictions between the two superpowers will persist given their opposing economic and political models. 

The economy will lose steam this year on a sharper fall in investment and softer growth in exports and private spending. That said, GDP forecasts have been upgraded by 0.9 percentage points since the turn of the year. The key downside risks are faster-than-expected Fed tightening, more bank collapses and a total breakdown in relations with China. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.2% in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 0.7% in 2024. Inflation eased to 4.0% in May from April’s 4.9%, the weakest rate since March 2021. The drop was primarily driven by slower rises in prices for housing and food, and a fall in transport prices. However, inflation was still double the Fed’s 2.0% target. Inflation should continue to decline later this year but will stay above the Fed’s target throughout 2023. 

FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 4.1% on average in 2023, which is down by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 2.6% on average in 2024. At its 13–14 June meeting, the Fed left the federal funds target range at 5.00–5.25%, but suggested it could hike rates further at upcoming meetings. Our panelists are split, with some seeing rates unchanged and other expecting 25–50 basis points of extra tightening. The Consensus is for the fed funds target range to be slightly above its current level at end- 2023. FocusEconomics panelists see the upper bound of the fed funds target range ending 2023 at 5.30% and ending 2024 at 3.95%. The U.S. dollar index traded at 103 on 23 June, depreciating 0.6% month on month. The debt ceiling agreement removed a key source of economic uncertainty and boosted risk appetite, likely weighing on safe-haven demand. Looking ahead, global interest rates, safe-haven demand and U.S. financial stability will be key drivers of the USD.


United Kingdom - Outlook improves

The economy registered a mild quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1, thanks to growth in fixed investment and private spending. In contrast, public spending, exports and imports all contracted. Turning to Q2, the economy has likely had a muted outturn. Activity will have been weighed on by sticky inflation, tightening monetary policy, strike action, weak external goods demand, competitive losses stemming from Brexit and the extra bank holiday in May for the King’s coronation. That said, a robust labor market and improving consumer sentiment have likely supported household spending, with retail sales beating market expectations in April–May. In June, the government announced tariff cuts on imports from developing economies. That said, the expected reduction in import costs of GBP 770 million per year is only worth slightly over 0.1% of total goods imports. 

GDP is set to rise this year, following a series of forecast upgrades in recent months. A robust labor market and government fiscal support will aid activity. That said, the UK economy will still underperform G7 peers, weighed on by Brexit, sticky inflation and worker strikes. Prolonged strikes and higher-than-expected interest rates pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.2% in 2023, which is up by 0.2 percentage points from one month ago, and expanding 0.9% in 2024. 

Inflation beat market expectations to remain at 8.7% in May, above the rates of G7 peers. The tight labor market and rapid wage growth have kept price pressures elevated in recent months. Looking ahead, inflation should gradually trend down on tighter monetary policy but is still forecast to average over double the Bank of England’s 2.0% target in Q4 2023. FocusEconomics panelists see consumer prices rising 7.0% on average in 2023, which is up by 0.1 percentage points from one month ago, and rising 2.8% on average in 2024. • On 22 June, the Bank of England (BoE) increased the bank rate from 4.50% to 5.00%, in response to higher-than-expected recent inflation and wage growth. This took total tightening in the current cycle to 490 basis points. Looking forward, further hikes are forecast this year as the BoE tries to root out stubborn price pressures, with risks likely skewed to the upside. FocusEconomics panelists see the bank rate ending 2023 at 5.50% and ending 2024 at 4.58%. 

The pound sterling traded at USD 1.27 per GBP on 23 June, appreciating 2.4% month on month. Expectations of tighter monetary policy boosted the pound over the last month. The GBP is seen ending this year slightly weaker than its current level. Safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar and the relative paces of rate hikes between the BoE and the Fed are key risk factors. FocusEconomics panelists see the pound sterling ending 2023 at USD 1.25 per GBP and ending 2024 at USD 1.30 per GBP.

- Deepsea Challenger piloted by  James Cameron in 2012 -  Years ago I was approached by a small submarine startup for investment. I was pitc...



- Deepsea Challenger piloted by 
James Cameron in 2012 - 

Years ago I was approached by a small submarine startup for investment. I was pitched by one of the co-founders. I knew him through mutual contacts.

At the time I was the chief investment officer for our group (we don't use titles like that anymore). I would get a lot of requests for investment meetings. 

Regardless, I heard the entry points, the potential market share, and the promise of profits. I didn’t see it. I did not have any interest. We wrapped up the meeting,  and I went on with my day. 

Did I see a market for this? I did not.  

Was there a "cool" factor with this investment? Not for me. Many others thought it was the ultimate. Still, I didn’t see how you could escape the business liability for a personal submarine. It reminded me of investments like small airplanes, jet packs, and "toys" like that. There’s a reason we have strict regulation for machines and vehicles like that. Personal submarines seemed like a disaster waiting to happen, for a number of reasons. 

In the past, I spent a lot of time climbing mountains. The mountain tops of the earth often attract the same type of people who aspire to go to the deepest depths of the ocean. 

Despite the fact that mountains are different than the deep sea, you can easily attribute what is called "summit fever" to deep sea exploring, and "exploring the wreckage of the Titanic in a small submarine." 

In the world of mountaineering, summit fever is the compulsion to reach the summit of the mountain no matter the cost.

Summit fever is dangerous, it clouds your judgment and many times leads to catastrophic outcomes.

I believe that this is what happened with OceanGate.

Regardless, I’d like to say something about certain types of exploration. I believe we must limit “commercial” submarine diving operations in the deep sea and at the Titanic site. I think we should do the same with our most popular mountain tops. I don’t believe commercial expedition keeps the best interest of the planet in mind. Take a look at the litter on Mount Everest when you get a chance.

Also, I find that ocean conservation, and ocean oriented scientific field research is infinitely more important for humans, and the earth, than commercial deep sea travel. Granted, this is just my opinion.

I feel very sad for the families who lost loved ones, and I have tremendous respect for the rescue crews that clambered together, to solve this puzzle. God bless.

-CH
 

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