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Everyone is waiting on silver to pop! Silver prices have fallen back in recent weeks, on a slight easing of global trade tensions and...

Silver Commodity Pricing

Everyone is waiting on silver to pop!



Silver prices have fallen back in recent weeks, on a slight easing of global trade tensions and a strong dollar. Silver traded at USD 17.5 per troy ounce on 4 October, which was 9.8% lower than on the same day last month. However, the price was up 12.8% on a year-to-date basis and was 19.6% higher than on the same day a year prior. The U.S.-China trade war appeared to ebb slightly over the last month, after the two countries agreed to restart talks. This reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals, hitting silver prices. Moreover, the strong dollar likely had an effect, as this made purchasing silver more expensive for holders of other currencies, while soft global manufacturing activity—many countries’ manufacturing PMIs are currently close to or below the 50-threshold signifying worsening operating conditions— could have hit industrial demand. Going forward, prices are seen remaining relatively stable, propped up by a recovery in industrial production next year. The evolution of the U.S.-China trade war will be a key factor to watch in coming months, due to its potential to affect both safe haven and industrial demand. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect prices to average USD 17.3 per troy ounce in Q4 2019, before rising further to an average of USD 17.2 per troy ounce in Q4 2020. Compared to last month, 2 revised down their Q4 2019 forecasts. Moreover, 9 panelists made no changes to their projections, while 6 lifted their estimates. There continued to be a notable divergence in panelists’ views: The maximum price forecast for Q4 2019 was USD 19.7 per troy ounce, while the minimum projected price was USD 14.9 per troy ounce.