Oil Dynamic Reports - NY Fed

Oil is back in a big way - investments are picking up and many are going deep. The current US administration is heavy on fossil fuels and that has reinvigorated supply and demand. Of course the tariffs send a message counterproductive to this. It’s hard to think about how many oil and gas exports we are missing out on because of the tariff scare.

- Chad Hagan

"Increased supply pushed oil prices down over the past three weeks"

+ Despite somewhat stronger global demand expectations, a perceived loosening in supply led to a fall in oil prices over the past three weeks. In 2018:Q2, increasing demand expectations and decreasing anticipated supply led to rising oil prices.

+ Developments in global demand expectations since 2017:Q3 have reversed the largely supply-induced weakness in oil prices throughout the first half of 2017

+ Overall, since the end of 2014:Q2, both lower global demand expectations and looser supply have held oil prices down, though this trend seems to have reversed in 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q4, and notably since 2017:Q3.

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