Production is forecasted to remain above consumption.
From Focus Economics:
Prices fell to multi-year lows in July as China imposed retaliatory tariff s on U.S. soybean exports. On 6 July, soybeans traded at USD 843 cents per bushel, which was down 12.1% from the same day last month. The price was 8.3% lower on a year-to-date basis and was down 11.7% from the same day last year. On 6 July, the U.S. imposed widely-anticipated tariff s on imports from China, leading the Asian giant to retaliate with tariff s of its own, including on soybean imports from the United States. China is the world’s largest consumer of soybeans, so the increased cost of sending supplies there for U.S. farmers, coupled with broader concerns of the depressing eff ect of a trade war on the global economy, has hit market prices. Moreover, on 12 June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture upwardly revised its projection for world soybean production for the season ending in 2019. Prices are expected to recover as demand from China for the world’s supply of soybeans, despite higher tariff s on U.S. imports, will continue to remain high. For Q4 2018, panelists expect prices to average USD 1,010 cents per bushel. For Q4 2019, panelists project prices will average USD 1,056 cents per bushel.