Showing posts from February, 2017

The Securities Law Blog: SEC Wants All Investors to Access High Risk Invest...

The Securities Law Blog: SEC Wants All Investors to Access High Risk Invest...: In a startling about-face, Acting Securities and Exchange Commissioner Michael Piwowar called for allowing every investor to buy unregistered securities

Basically it allows anyone to invest in what pro's invest in, which is strange to allow. Also, since they are seeking to restrict the fiduciary rule, that means a broker could put you in a bad investment and get paid on it, knowing it was a risky investment, and not have repercussions. This type of investment activity is what led - in part - to the great depression.

AMZN accounts for over 40% of North American ecommerce sales

AMZN accounts for over 40% of North American ecommerce sales.
Amazon Basics: adding apparel & retail would boost sales.
Perhaps a good move during the current political regime.
This came up when rumors began around the American Apparel bankruptcy. The idea for American Apparel was perfect. They would buy up the IP and inventory and stores. A seamless integration could begin. If AMZN were to buy M, KSS and KORS $36 billion (give or take) - would this be a good thing?
$36 billion is not going to shake AMZN. Additional questions arise like: Will this hurt AMZN's bottom line? Amazon has a strong history of selling $1.00 for $0.99 (or 98 cents) but how will that equate if they take on additional retail liabilities?

Saudi Aramaco IPO Before Saudi Arabia Goes Bankrupt

If you were to take Saudi Arabia's religious issues into effect their credit rating should hover on near default.

IPO: Saudi Aramco is valued at $2 trillion. Estimates in 2015 penned the valuation at $10 trillion. Whatever it may be 5% of the group is being listed and the value for that is seen at $100 billion.

Saudi Arabia is scheduled to go bankruptcy in about 5 years. The money will help. This is developing...

From the IMF: Transcript of a Press Briefing On Update Of The World Economic Outlook January 16, 2017

MS. NARDIN: Let's move to our colleagues that are online now. First from Saudi Arabia, and then on Africa. On Saudi Arabia: can you please elaborate on the reasons behind cutting the 2017 forecast even as the expected rise in oil prices provide room for government spending, and what is the forecast for non-oil economy growth in 2017? And another question, if we think the slowdown in Saudi Arabia's economy will impact aid to other countries and investments in the …

State of Georgia Marijuana Revenue & Taxes

Here are some back of the napkin numbers on marijuana revenue.

State of GeorgiaMarijuana NumbersGeorgia Population Using at 15%Average $$ spent per year on MMRevenue & Tax1,500,000$1,500.00$2,250,000,000.00$125.00 Per Month Tax at 20% = $112,5M
See Numbers (Published on Google Sheets)

The Continuous Greek Tragedy of $DRYS

Dryships is high risk and it has been high risk for a while. The stock has split four times in recent times, and there is no doubt that the creditors and bond holders are directing these hands. The percieved pay off would happen this summer - when DRYS recieves new tankers and can take advantage of long term charter rates and stave off losses from the spot market. Given the current rates DRYS will need capital to fund the losses until delivery of the VLGS (Very Large Gas Carriers with 83,000 cubic metres of cargo capacity) in June. However, June's delivery is just one vessel, and DRYS has yet to disclose when the other vessels will arrive.VLGS are quite large (very large in fact See BP's VLGS Fleet) and the long term rate set in long term contracts will bring needed cash flow to the balance sheet. While this is promising to invest, it is risky. DRYS may be eyed as an attactive equity for the price, but as mentioned the fear is the lack of control equity holders have.I have att…

Following The Trends.. What Generations Matter

* This is an opinionated blog post. Op-ed in fact. It is a bit cynical. Statistical and demographic research has been applied to this analysis.  - CH

Following The Trends

What generation(s) matter? Well, from an aging perspective it is the silent and baby boomer generation. From a mass choice and power side it is the millennials and generation X. Right now the older generations are very easy to track from a consumer spending side. They move in mega trends - or have moved in mega purchasing trends - like marriage, housing and vacation styles.

I must admit, being born in 1980 makes me a bit of an eye roller when it comes to strong stereotypical examples inside older U.S. generations. I find die hard baby boomers and the silent generation to be particularly annoying in my situation.

"Silents" are called that because many focused on their careers rather than on activism, and people in it were largely encouraged to conform with social norms -Wikipedia.

It is important to note that t…

What Are Clean Shares - Individual Investor

From WSJ:
Dozens of fund companies have also filed to launch so-called T shares, or “transaction” shares, that have uniform sales charges across all fund categories, according to fund researcher Morningstar Inc. Typically, these shares charge a 2.5% load, or fee, when sold, and a 12b-1 fee of 0.25% to pay for distribution or other expenses. Any front-end load may decline for larger purchases. In comparison, the load on an A share class could be 3.75% or more, according to Morningstar.

From Drinker Biddle:
The SEC released recently a no-action letter in which it permitted share class arrangements (dubbed “clean shares”) under which brokers, rather than mutual funds, would set the commission rates on fund shares for their customers as long as certain conditions are met. The guidance comes as brokers seek to reorganize their business models in the wake of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule, which is set to take effect in April of this year. The SEC’s guidance may have a wide rangi…

Retail Gasoline Prices Feb 06, 2017

Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade, by Week/ PADD Region (Self Service Prices per Gallon, Including Taxes) US Energy

Dates & Pricing:1/23/2017   1/30/2017    2/6/2017
PADD 1 - East Coast                  2.348       2.320       2.301
PADD 1a - New England                 2.337       2.314       2.294
PADD 1b - Central Atlantic            2.485       2.458       2.432
PADD 1c - Lower Atlantic              2.250       2.220       2.206
PADD 2 - Midwest                      2.219       2.168       2.181
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast                   2.124       2.089       2.071
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain               2.256       2.255       2.233
PADD 5 - West Coast                  2.676       2.678       2.700
PADD 5b - West Coast less CA          2.492       2.483       2.483
California                            2.783       2.791       2.825

Under Armour 10-year Unsecured Bonds Tick Down to 88

Under Armour issued $600 million in 10-year unsecured bonds in June 2016.
Right now those bond holders are freaking out.

"These notes last traded at 88.102, down from 92.299 on Tuesday, according to MarketAxess. Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday affirmed Under Armour’s credit rating at Baa2, or two notches above junk status, but lowered its outlook on company’s credit to negative." - WSJ

What is there to worry about? Quite a lot I am afraid.

January Payroll Growth Good, But Wage Growth Just Ok

The unemployment rate was 4.8%, higher than last month’s 4.7%, and higher than expectations.  The labor force participation rate rose slightly 62.9%.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.

Voluntary Quits - 2016 Statistics

When people quit their jobs it is often a good sign. Macroeconomics wise this is a good sign. People leave for a variety of reasons but when work is good and job availability close at hand, employees "up and leave" at the drop of a hat. Interestingly enough the south has the highest spike (per this chart). My assumption is livability and purchasing power. If you see the chart below Northeast and West are close in count to each other.  So one can only guess. Dallas and Atlanta are both very large cities in the southeast, rife with population, money and industry, and less expensive from a housing and consumer perspective than New York City and San Francisco. Also, it is cheaper to roll out products lines and staffing experts for those products and new ventures in the South. I have no explanation for the Midwest. Maybe that is my next road trip. Onward, to French Lick, Indiana!