The concept of bitcoin is really fantastic. Groups of people join together sharing power and computer power and by virtue of the bloc...
An Essay On Bitcoin Pricing
The C.A.P.E. ratio is above 30 today, compared with an average of 16.8 since 1881. It has been above 30 in only two other period...
Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Should we be worried?)
The C.A.P.E. ratio is above 30 today, compared with an average of 16.8 since 1881. It has been above 30 in only two other periods: in 1929, when it reached 33, and between 1997 and 2002, when it soared as high as 44. - Sept 15, 2017 Robert Shiller
Using market data from both estimated (1881 - 1956) and actual (1957 onward) earnings reports from the S&P index, Shiller and Campbell found that the lower the CAPE, the higher the investors' likely return from equities over the following 20 years. The average CAPE value for the 20th century was 15.21; this corresponds to an average annual return over the next 20 years of around 6.6 per cent. CAPE values above this produce corresponding lower returns, and vice versa. In 2014, Shiller expressed concern that the prevailing CAPE of over 25 was "a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks".
Cape Ratio :
1) A ratio used to gauge whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued by comparing its current market price to its inflation adjusted historical earnings record .
2) it is a variant of the more popular price to earning ratio and is calculated by dividing the current price of a stock by its average inflation adjusted earning over the last 10 years.
3) Using average earnings over the last decade helps to smooth out the impact of business cycles and other events and gives a better picture of a company's sustainable earning power .
4) The ratio was invented by American economist Robert Shiller.
5) It is not intended as an indicator of impending market crashes, although high CAPE values have been associated with such events.
- WIKI
Bob Shiller. Always insightful. - Chad
Nominal exports valued in yen increased 18.1% from the same month last year in August, following July’s 13.4% rise, overshooting th...
Bank of Japan Owns 60% of Japan ETFs
Nominal exports valued in yen increased 18.1% from the same month last year in August, following July’s 13.4% rise, overshooting the 14.7% increase that market analysts had expected. The expansion, the fastest since November 2013, was driven by growing sales to the rest of Asia, which rose 19.9%, and an acceleration in growth of exports to North America, which went up from a 13.0% increase in July to 22.9% in August. The external sector is benefiting from a weak yen and stable global demand. Growth in imports moderated from 16.3% in July to 15.2% in August. The print overshot the 11.8% rise that markets had expected. The strong growth in imports are a clear indication of strong domestic activity. The trade surplus went from a JPY 350 million deficit in August 2016 to a JPY 114 billion surplus in August 2017. Accordingly, in the 12 months leading up to August, the trade surplus inched up to JPY 3.3 trillion, which was higher than the JPY 3.2 trillion surplus recorded in the previous month. - Edward Gardner, Economist at FocusEconomics
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda kept the interest rates and asset buying program intact in the recent policy meeting.The BOJ maintained a negative 0.1% interest rate, which was widely anticipated by the markets. BOJ also maintained its stance on buying bonds amounting to 80 trillion yen annually. Critics are arguing if the current policy is sufficient to achieve the 2% inflation target of the BOJ in fiscal 2019 - Zack's Investment Research
The Securities Law Blog: Attorneys Should Practice Truth In Advertising — A... : Attorneys Should Practice Truth In Advertising — Alabama In...
The Securities Law Blog: Attorneys Should Practice Truth In Advertising — A...
Ethanol prices remained relatively unchanged over the past month, as increasing production in the U.S. and Brazil kept a tab on demand-i...
Ethanol Outlook September 2017
How is Russia doing? The country has no problem making the news but the economics of Russia are not always discussed. Russia is a...
Russian Economics And A Look At The Russian Economy
Moody’s: Ba1, Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB+, Positive
Fitch Ratings: BBB-, Stable
Economic Notes and Infrastructure:
• Substantial oil and gas wealth
• Dependence on oil exports
• Persistent inflation
• Financial system vulnerability
• Rich in natural resources
• Weak democratic institutions
• Rapidly ageing population
• Strong international reserves position
Telecommunication (2015)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 25.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 160
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 70.5
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 18.9
House view is that rates should stay untouched for next 6-18 months. We will see how that goes. - CH Federal Reserve Governor Lael ...
Interest Rate Chatter
House view is that rates should stay untouched for next 6-18 months. We will see how that goes. - CH
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the U.S. central bank needs to pay careful attention to underlying inflation before raising interest rates again, as longer-run price pressure trends appear to be lower. - Bloomberg
“My own view is that we should be cautious about tightening policy further until we are confident inflation is on track to achieve our target,” Brainard said in a speech at The Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. If inflation continues to fall short of the central bank’s 2 percent target, “it would be prudent to raise the federal funds rate more gradually.” - Lael Brainard
Headlines from the last time Bullard spoke, on June 29:
- Current level of Fed rates appropriate
- Small effect on inflation if unemployment falls
- Weak inflation data questions rise to 2%
- Low unemployment is probably not an indicator of meaningful higher inflation over the forecast horizon
- Recent inflation data has surprised as the downside
- Calls into question the idea that US inflation is reliably returning toward the target
(link source)
Dynamic global trade and improved labor markets, coupled with fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies in key countries, are ...
Global Outlook Improves
Dynamic global trade and improved labor markets, coupled with fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies in key countries, are prompting the global economy to consolidate its healthy growth trajectory. A comprehensive estimate for the global economy corroborates that GDP expanded 3.1% annually in Q2, matching the result in Q1 and in line with what our Consensus Forecast had expected last month. Economic momentum is expected to continue in Q3, with the global economy forecast to expand 3.1% again.
Economic activity improved in most of the advanced economies in Q2, with the Euro area leading the pack. The euro bloc’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in over six years on the back of robust domestic demand. The Euro area’s strong recent economic performance is largely due to a declining unemployment rate, along with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary stimulus program. Against this backdrop, analysts are now betting on the timing of monetary policy normalization in the Euro area. While economic data for Q3 corroborates that the Euro area’s economy is in good shape and that the ECB could start tapering its qualitative easing (QE) sooner rather than later, inflation remains below the ECB’s target of “below but close to 2%”, adding uncertainty about the Bank’s next step. In the United States, the economy also gathered steam in Q2 following Q1’s disappointing result. As in other advanced economies, domestic demand led the acceleration due to a healthy job market and strengthening confidence about the economic recovery.
Elsewhere, Japan’s domestic economy propelled growth in Q2 to levels last seen over two years ago. Resilient household consumption raised hopes that Japan may have entered a more sustainable growth trajectory. In the UK, uncertainty about the future of the economy, together with eroded wages due to higher inflation, led the economy to slow in Q2. Among the key emerging market economies, China’s economy continued to show strong resilience in Q2, while the economic recovery in Russia continued to gather pace, with GDP expanding at the fastest pace in nearly five years. While analysts were hoping that this year’s long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium would deliver some clues to the future of monetary policy in the Euro area, the gathering proved to be disappointing in that respect, as ECB President Mario Draghi did not unveil details about the ECB’s approach to cutting back its asset purchase program. In the same vein as her colleague in Europe, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen did not provide forward guidance on future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve, in a context of low unemployment, rising asset prices and a stubbornly low inflation rate. Instead, she praised the financial regulations put in place since the global financial crisis to limit financial risks. Yellen’s speech has been seen as a critique of President Donald Trump and his stated intention to roll back certain post-crisis reforms. Yellen’s term expires in February, and Trump has not stated whether he will reappoint her.
- FocusEconomics