What Is The Economic Impact of Refugees And The Movement Of People?


Good points for review. A whole new economic division. Refugees arrive and the government must spend to support the refugees, thereby providing a shot in the arm to local economies due to an increase in spending, and increasing robust regional economies industrial sectors.

Clearly ageing industrial economies and apprentice laden industries need a cycle of new employees - if nothing else. The balance due or bounty found will be decided by a number of various indicators. - CH


Europe is ageing fast, with the old-age dependency ratio in the EU-28 forecast to soar from 28.8% in 2015 to 50.3% by the middle of the century. Many pension and healthcare systems across the continent are already creaking under the strain of having to provide for so many retirees. The most recent wave of refugees arriving in Europe could help alleviate this burden to an extent. Most refugees are young: Around 50% of those who have sought asylum in the EU over the last few years are between 18 and 34, while nearly one-third are younger than 18. They are also likely to have higher fertility rates than native-born citizens. Both of these factors should help slow the rate of ageing and lessen the impact of the transition of our greying societies. The IMF estimates that the current influx of refugees could reduce pension spending by 0.25 percentage points of GDP by 2030 for the EU as a whole, and by more for large recipient countries. - Focus Economics

The economic impact is likely to be slightly positive in the short-term. All the refugees arriving in the European Union need to be housed and fed. Their medical needs must be addressed, and both children and adults have to be educated in preparation for entry into local labor markets. Before they are ready to work, financial support is also necessary. The ensuing boost to government spending and fiscal transfers will give domestic demand a shot in the arm. According to estimates from the IMF, by the end of 2017 GDP in Austria, Germany and Sweden—the main destination countries for refugees—will have been boosted by 0.5%, 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. In Germany, by far the largest recipient in absolute terms, refugee-related expenditure amounted to more than EUR 20 billion last year. - FocusEconomics