Politics, Policy, Economics - Since 2010

Good points for review. A whole new economic division. Refugees arrive and the government must spend to support the refugees, thereby provi...

What Is The Economic Impact of Refugees And The Movement Of People?


Good points for review. A whole new economic division. Refugees arrive and the government must spend to support the refugees, thereby providing a shot in the arm to local economies due to an increase in spending, and increasing robust regional economies industrial sectors.

Clearly ageing industrial economies and apprentice laden industries need a cycle of new employees - if nothing else. The balance due or bounty found will be decided by a number of various indicators. - CH


Europe is ageing fast, with the old-age dependency ratio in the EU-28 forecast to soar from 28.8% in 2015 to 50.3% by the middle of the century. Many pension and healthcare systems across the continent are already creaking under the strain of having to provide for so many retirees. The most recent wave of refugees arriving in Europe could help alleviate this burden to an extent. Most refugees are young: Around 50% of those who have sought asylum in the EU over the last few years are between 18 and 34, while nearly one-third are younger than 18. They are also likely to have higher fertility rates than native-born citizens. Both of these factors should help slow the rate of ageing and lessen the impact of the transition of our greying societies. The IMF estimates that the current influx of refugees could reduce pension spending by 0.25 percentage points of GDP by 2030 for the EU as a whole, and by more for large recipient countries. - Focus Economics

The economic impact is likely to be slightly positive in the short-term. All the refugees arriving in the European Union need to be housed and fed. Their medical needs must be addressed, and both children and adults have to be educated in preparation for entry into local labor markets. Before they are ready to work, financial support is also necessary. The ensuing boost to government spending and fiscal transfers will give domestic demand a shot in the arm. According to estimates from the IMF, by the end of 2017 GDP in Austria, Germany and Sweden—the main destination countries for refugees—will have been boosted by 0.5%, 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. In Germany, by far the largest recipient in absolute terms, refugee-related expenditure amounted to more than EUR 20 billion last year. - FocusEconomics



Right now it is common knowledge that the U.S. has a nuclear reactive POTUS - but the chance we will go to war is slim. There i...

North Korea and U.S. Relations: The Same As The Past 65 Years




Right now it is common knowledge that the U.S. has a nuclear reactive POTUS - but the chance we will go to war is slim.

There is a chance NK has nukes, or at least is in the later stages of nuke development. However, diplomatically the U.S. has not changed on the fundamental opinions of keeping the peace on the Korean peninsula. There is a clear permanent government and leadership in U.S., and the ever changing presidents will never affect that. POTUS is using Kim Jung's playbook: make noise and then demand negotiations. China is also a reason for the temper tantrums from the Oval Office. Neanderthal logic would follow the ethos of beating drums scaring people into submission, but this is indifferent to the current POTUS thoughts on diplomacy - despite his ploy to disturb NK's nuclear development. What could happen next is a concession to attempt control over nuclear development.

What could happen?
A mistake or accident could lead to mass casualtites. This is unlikely, but the unnerving comments and current sentiment from POTUS is troubling U.S. allies. 

To my readers
I spare us all the torment of U.S. politics, both local and national. I only cover geopolitics for economic and geo-analyst reasons. - CH

The Japanese economy expanded healthily in Q2 on the back of a strong pickup in domestic demand. GDP rose 4.0% in Q2 over the previou...

More Japan Updates



The Japanese economy expanded healthily in Q2 on the back of a strong pickup in domestic demand. GDP rose 4.0% in Q2 over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), which was notably above the 1.5% expansion in Q1. Read more at Chaganomics Long Form. 

“Cool Down Time For Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN )” Despite the frenzy and furor over Amazon on both sides - shareholders and antitrust types...

Cool Down Time For Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)



“Cool Down Time For Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)”

Despite the frenzy and furor over Amazon on both sides - shareholders and antitrust types alike - AMZN could have a rough patch ahead. While growth and market share dominate the culture and drive of $AMZN what is happening in their quest for dominance is destruction. When sales competitor Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT) is compared to Amazon the difference is intense: WMT has an enterprise value of $271B with revenues at $486B, Amazon is currently at an enterprise value of $478B with revenues of $150B. The joke in the past was Amason sold $1.00 for $.99, now AMZN is creeping towards selling $1.00 for $.50.

New Russia numbers rolling in from Focus Economics. Economically I am fascinated by the emerging modern Russia, despite the politica...

Russia: Economy Gains Momentum





New Russia numbers rolling in from Focus Economics. Economically I am fascinated by the emerging modern Russia, despite the political noise that dominates the headlines. From a matter of container ports and port economics the country is situated in an incredible situation with ports in the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the east asia port Vladivostok above Korea and Japan in the middle of the Sea of Japan. 

Russia: Economy gains momentum in Q2 - Full story plus new Consensus growth forecasts: http://bit.ly/2i2VdjG

The Container Guide (2015) By Numerous authors 2017 Georgia Cotton Production Guide By Coop Extension / UGA The Insolvency and Bankruptcy...

August Reading List

The Container Guide (2015)
By Numerous authors

2017 Georgia Cotton Production Guide
By Coop Extension / UGA

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016
By India Ministry of Law and Justice 

Keynes Hayek 
By Nicholas Wapshott

Free To Choose 
By Milton Friedman 

The Essential Milton Friedman
By Milton Friedman 

Note: numerous ibanking deals cramped my summer reading, but nevertheless I am back with a fury. The book: The Container Guide, is really something and I encourage any logistics and global trade nerd to buy it. 

Chaganomics has opened up access to a new long form subsection. It is aptly named Chaganomics Long Form ( LINK ) and covers energy,...

Ocean Marine, Global Trade and Global Logistics Section




Chaganomics has opened up access to a new long form subsection. It is aptly named Chaganomics Long Form (LINK) and covers energy, physical commodity trading, global trade, marine shipping, major shipping concerns and financial developments news tying these aspects to our modern markets.

See: Chaganomics Intermodal and Bulk Shipping Page 

While this is only in Europe, many have been talking about it. Personally there is no way I would pay for research if we traded at a f...

Regulation Nightmare: EU’s MiFID II


While this is only in Europe, many have been talking about it. Personally there is no way I would pay for research if we traded at a firm as well. To a degree this is avoidable, as shown below. JPM will absorb the costs and make them a soft dollar sale product.

To borrow from the FCA: The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive is the EU legislation that regulates firms who provide services to clients linked to ‘financial instruments’ (shares, bonds, units in collective investment schemes and derivatives), and the venues where those instruments are traded. LINK

Market Chatter: JP Morgan Asset Management Plans to Absorb Research Costs Due to New Regulation - 12:18 PM EDT, 08/11/2017 (MT Newswires) -- JP Morgan's (JPM) asset management unit plans to absorb the cost of research from brokerages rather than pass them on to clients after new European Union regulations come into force in less than six months, Reuters reported. The new rules will require brokers to charge fund managers for research they provide separately from trading services, according to the report. Vanguard, Jupiter, M&G and Aberdeen have also said they will pay research costs themselves, while hedge fund Man Group's stockpicking unit GLG, Janus Henderson and Schroders, said they plan to pass research costs on to clients, the report added. JP Morgan shares were 0.6% lower on Friday afternoon. Price: 91.67, Change: -0.52, Percent Change: -0.56

From the SEC: The report includes a survey and analysis of recent academic literature, as well as original analyses drawn from publicly avai...

SEC Staff Publishes Report on Access to Capital and Market Liquidity

From the SEC: The report includes a survey and analysis of recent academic literature, as well as original analyses drawn from publicly available databases and non-public regulatory filings. The report examines the issuance of debt, equity, and asset-backed securities, as well as activity and liquidity in U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, single-name credit default swaps, and bond funds. Specifically, the report identifies trends for unregistered offerings, such as those under Regulation D and Regulation Crowdfunding, as well as fixed income transactions, fixed income quotations, and broker-dealer financial positions. LINK

In response to the U.S. Russia sanctions Russia has made an announcement regarding changes for international payments and about settling th...

Russia Done With USD

In response to the U.S. Russia sanctions Russia has made an announcement regarding changes for international payments and about settling their payments in USD.



Russia will speed up work on reducing its dependence on U.S. payment systems and the dollar as a settling currency in response to U.S. sanctions, RIA new agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Monday.

"We will of course intensify work related to import substitution, reduction of dependence on U.S. payment systems, on the dollar as a settling currency and so on. It is becoming a vital need," Ryabkov was quoted as saying. (Writing by Polina Nikolskaya; Editing by Maria Kiselyova abd Dmitry Solovyov) - RTRS

From Aug. 1, 2017:

The United States began removing furniture and equipment from a diplomatic property in Moscow on Tuesday in the first sign of compliance with a Kremlin order to slash its presence in Russia as retaliation for new U.S. sanctions.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the United States to cut around 60 percent of its diplomatic staff in Russia by Sept. 1, and said Moscow will seize two U.S. diplomatic properties in response to sanctions approved by Congress last week.

The White House has said U.S. President Donald Trump will sign the sanctions bill, meant as a response to alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and to further punish Moscow for its 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine - RTRS

Climateer Investing: "iHeartMedia edges closer to bankruptcy with $174 ... : On Tuesday the WSJ Bankruptcy newsletter had the news tha...

Climateer Investing: "iHeartMedia edges closer to bankruptcy with $174 ...

Climateer Investing: "iHeartMedia edges closer to bankruptcy with $174 ...: On Tuesday the WSJ Bankruptcy newsletter had the news that IHRT was making the coupon payment on some of the unsecured debt. The stock jump...