Politics, Policy, Economics - Since 2010

The Securities Law Blog: SEC Wants All Investors to Access High Risk Invest... : In a startling about-face, Acting Securities and Exchange ...

The Securities Law Blog: SEC Wants All Investors to Access High Risk Invest...



The Securities Law Blog: SEC Wants All Investors to Access High Risk Invest...: In a startling about-face, Acting Securities and Exchange Commissioner Michael Piwowar called for allowing every investor to buy unregistered securities


Basically it allows anyone to invest in what pro's invest in, which is strange to allow. Also, since they are seeking to restrict the fiduciary rule, that means a broker could put you in a bad investment and get paid on it, knowing it was a risky investment, and not have repercussions. This type of investment activity is what led - in part - to the great depression.

AMZN accounts for over 40% of North American ecommerce sales. Amazon Basics: adding apparel & retail would boost sales. Perhaps a g...

AMZN accounts for over 40% of North American ecommerce sales


AMZN accounts for over 40% of North American ecommerce sales.
Amazon Basics: adding apparel & retail would boost sales.
Perhaps a good move during the current political regime.
This came up when rumors began around the American Apparel bankruptcy. The idea for American Apparel was perfect. They would buy up the IP and inventory and stores. A seamless integration could begin. If AMZN were to buy M, KSS and KORS $36 billion (give or take) - would this be a good thing?
$36 billion is not going to shake AMZN. Additional questions arise like: Will this hurt AMZN's bottom line? Amazon has a strong history of selling $1.00 for $0.99 (or 98 cents) but how will that equate if they take on additional retail liabilities?


http://seekingalpha.com/user/32088685/instablogs#instablogs

If you were to take Saudi Arabia's religious issues into effect their credit rating should hover on near default. IPO: Saudi Aramco i...

Saudi Aramaco IPO Before Saudi Arabia Goes Bankrupt

If you were to take Saudi Arabia's religious issues into effect their credit rating should hover on near default.

IPO: Saudi Aramco is valued at $2 trillion. Estimates in 2015 penned the valuation at $10 trillion. Whatever it may be 5% of the group is being listed and the value for that is seen at $100 billion.

Saudi Arabia is scheduled to go bankruptcy in about 5 years. The money will help. This is developing...

From the IMF: Transcript of a Press Briefing On Update Of The World Economic Outlook January 16, 2017

MS. NARDIN: Let's move to our colleagues that are online now. First from Saudi Arabia, and then on Africa. On Saudi Arabia: can you please elaborate on the reasons behind cutting the 2017 forecast even as the expected rise in oil prices provide room for government spending, and what is the forecast for non-oil economy growth in 2017? And another question, if we think the slowdown in Saudi Arabia's economy will impact aid to other countries and investments in the region. 

MR. MILESI-FERRETTI: Well, clearly, Saudi Arabia relies on oil revenues for a very sizable fraction of its exports and its government revenues, and, hence, the impact of lower oil prices on the economy is very strong. And we have seen, indeed, in 2016 a very sharp slowdown in growth. We had growth just of 1.4 percent. The forecast for 2017 depends, of course, on the behavior of both the oil part of the economy and the non-oil part of the economy. As in regard to the oil part of the economy, we have the impact of the agreement between major producers which is an agreement to curtail to some extent oil supply, and hence less oil production is going to mean less output from the oil sector even if prices are a little bit higher. With regard to the non-oil economy, Saudi Arabia is embarking on a very ambitious structural reform program, but also a very sizeable fiscal consolidation because of the decline in oil revenues. So there is a big adjustment in spending downwards. There is an adjustment in taxes upwards, and as a result the non-oil growth is not going to be as buoyant as it was during period of strong oil prices. Clearly, a bit higher oil prices help on the revenue front, but there is a lot of ground to be made in order to close the fiscal deficit that has opened with the decline in oil prices.

Here are some back of the napkin numbers on marijuana revenue. State of Georgia Marijuana Numbers Georgia Population Using at 15% Avera...

State of Georgia Marijuana Revenue & Taxes


Here are some back of the napkin numbers on marijuana revenue.

State of GeorgiaMarijuana Numbers
Georgia Population Using at 15%Average $$ spent per year on MMRevenue & Tax
1,500,000$1,500.00$2,250,000,000.00
$125.00 Per Month Tax at 20% = $112,5M

Dryships is high risk and it has been high risk for a while. The stock has split four times in recent times, and there is no doubt that the...

The Continuous Greek Tragedy of $DRYS

Dryships, Inc. Equity Price

Dryships is high risk and it has been high risk for a while. The stock has split four times in recent times, and there is no doubt that the creditors and bond holders are directing these hands. The percieved pay off would happen this summer - when DRYS recieves new tankers and can take advantage of long term charter rates and stave off losses from the spot market. Given the current rates DRYS will need capital to fund the losses until delivery of the VLGS (Very Large Gas Carriers with 83,000 cubic metres of cargo capacity) in June. However, June's delivery is just one vessel, and DRYS has yet to disclose when the other vessels will arrive.

VLGS are quite large (very large in fact See BP's VLGS Fleet) and the long term rate set in long term contracts will bring needed cash flow to the balance sheet. While this is promising to invest, it is risky. DRYS may be eyed as an attactive equity for the price, but as mentioned the fear is the lack of control equity holders have.

I have attached most recent cash flow, balance sheet and baltic index metrics.

- Chad Hagan

DRYS Gross Income Margin      
Date Gross Income Margin (USD, Percent)
12/31/2016 3.916225475    
9/30/2016 28.80500957    
6/30/2016 -11.27722547    
3/31/2016 -56.5851602    

From Benzinga: All together, each share of DryShips stock today represented 1,200 shares a year ago. The stock has been restructured so many times that it's hard to know which short interest numbers are even reliable. Yahoo Finance recently had DryShips' short percent of float above 160 percent. On a reverse split-adjusted basis, DryShips' 52-week high is $2,227. Today, the stock stands at around $5.30. - Wayne Duggan

* This is an opinionated blog post. Op-ed in fact. It is a bit cynical. Statistical and demographic research has been applied to this a...

Following The Trends.. What Generations Matter


* This is an opinionated blog post. Op-ed in fact. It is a bit cynical. Statistical and demographic research has been applied to this analysis.  - CH

Following The Trends

What generation(s) matter? Well, from an aging perspective it is the silent and baby boomer generation. From a mass choice and power side it is the millennials and generation X. Right now the older generations are very easy to track from a consumer spending side. They move in mega trends - or have moved in mega purchasing trends - like marriage, housing and vacation styles.

I must admit, being born in 1980 makes me a bit of an eye roller when it comes to strong stereotypical examples inside older U.S. generations. I find die hard baby boomers and the silent generation to be particularly annoying in my situation.

"Silents" are called that because many focused on their careers rather than on activism, and people in it were largely encouraged to conform with social norms -Wikipedia.

It is important to note that the "Silent' generation never produced a United States president.

As for the boomers and consumer class - These are the guys yelling in public about the price of their new boat dock. Who brags about spending money?
Maybe they use slang like Hemingway characters, or talk about killing people during the war with their bare hands for the old America, not the new. There is a chance they are heavy adherents to the car culture, which I am against for economic and environmental reasons. I never understood the idea of being prompted to buy a car because of an advertisement. Maybe these types buy cars every year - and not just sedans or sports cars - they buy trucks and vehicles that weight four tons. After all oil is good right?

They likely are late bloomers to technology (this is a fact generally, as they did not have tech in the 60's and 70's for the most part,) so they may send your picture out to 10,000 people by accident, or perhaps because they are thrilled at the new technology and the infinite possibilities it seems to bring (like doing things that are incredibly out of touch). They may complain about the younger generations use of technology, which no doubt is a useful way of escaping lock-ins with older generations, and saved the new generations from becoming drab old coots like the older generations.

There is also a chance they were heavily influenced by advertising, which means they were scammed into conspicuous consumption and consumerism that has plagued America, and then on top of it all, created a false system of values built around conspicuous consumption and mass consumerism. Those values may even be the very reason for the subculture inside the baby boomer generation called Generation Jones. Roll your eyes even harder on that one - for there lay the braggarts of America - assuming they "made it" based upon their marketed and pre-packaged ideology.

Yes, the new generations will show the old that there is more to life than conspicuous consumption.

Regardless, take a look at the chart below.

Also, read (a former professor of mine): 
The Myth of the Middle Class - by Richard Parker (Amazon Link)





From Wikipedia:

Western world generation break down:
For the purposes of this list, "Western world" can be taken to include the Americas, Europe, and Oceania. However, it should also be noted that many variations may exist within the regions, both geographically and culturally, which means that the list is broadly indicative, but necessarily very general. For details see the individual articles. 

The Lost Generation, also known as the Generation of 1914 in Europe, is a term originating with Gertrude Stein to describe those who fought in World War I. The members of the lost generation were typically born between 1883 and 1900. 

The G.I. Generation, also known as the "Greatest Generation'", is the generation that includes the veterans who fought in World War I. They were born from around 1901 to 1924, coming of age during the Great Depression. Journalist Tom Brokaw dubbed this the Greatest Generation in a book of the same name. 

The Silent Generation, also known as the Lucky Few, were born from approximately 1925 to 1941.
It includes some who fought in World War II, most of those who fought the Korean War and many during the Vietnam War.

The baby boomers are the generation that was born following World War II, generally from 1946 to 1964,a time that was marked by an increase in birth rates. The term "baby boomer" is sometimes used in a cultural context. 


Generation X, commonly abbreviated to Gen X, is the generation following the baby boomers. Demographers and researchers typically use starting birth years ranging from the early-to-mid 1960s and ending birth years ranging from the late 1970s to early 1980s. The term has also been used in different times and places for a number of different subcultures or countercultures since the 1950s. 

Millennials, also known as the Millennial Generation or Generation Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X. Demographers and researchers typically use the early 1980s as starting birth years and ending birth years ranging from the mid-1990s to early 2000s.


From WSJ: Dozens of fund companies have also filed to launch so-called T shares, or “transaction” shares, that have uniform sales charg...

What Are Clean Shares - Individual Investor




From WSJ:
Dozens of fund companies have also filed to launch so-called T shares, or “transaction” shares, that have uniform sales charges across all fund categories, according to fund researcher Morningstar Inc. Typically, these shares charge a 2.5% load, or fee, when sold, and a 12b-1 fee of 0.25% to pay for distribution or other expenses. Any front-end load may decline for larger purchases. In comparison, the load on an A share class could be 3.75% or more, according to Morningstar.

From Drinker Biddle:
The SEC released recently a no-action letter in which it permitted share class arrangements (dubbed “clean shares”) under which brokers, rather than mutual funds, would set the commission rates on fund shares for their customers as long as certain conditions are met. The guidance comes as brokers seek to reorganize their business models in the wake of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule, which is set to take effect in April of this year. The SEC’s guidance may have a wide ranging effect on how mutual fund shares are purchased and sold in the future.

SEC Approves New Mutual Fund Share Class Sales Arrangements for Brokers - http://www.drinkerbiddle.com/insights/publications/2017/01/sec-approves-new-mutual-fund-share-class-sales

Janus Capital & SEC - https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/noaction/2017/capital-group-011117-22d.htm

Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade, by Week/ PADD Region (Self Service Prices per Gallon, Including Taxes) US Energy Dates & P...

Retail Gasoline Prices Feb 06, 2017


Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade, by Week/ PADD Region (Self Service Prices per Gallon, Including Taxes) US Energy

Dates & Pricing:
1/23/2017   1/30/2017    2/6/2017

PADD 1 - East Coast                  
2.348       2.320       2.301
PADD 1a - New England                
2.337       2.314       2.294
PADD 1b - Central Atlantic           
2.485       2.458       2.432
PADD 1c - Lower Atlantic             
2.250       2.220       2.206
PADD 2 - Midwest                     
2.219       2.168       2.181
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast                  
2.124       2.089       2.071
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain              
2.256       2.255       2.233
PADD 5 - West Coast                 
2.676       2.678       2.700
PADD 5b - West Coast less CA         
2.492       2.483       2.483
California                           
2.783       2.791       2.825

Under Armour issued $600 million in 10-year unsecured bonds in June 2016. Right now those bond holders are freaking out. "These not...

Under Armour 10-year Unsecured Bonds Tick Down to 88

Under Armour issued $600 million in 10-year unsecured bonds in June 2016.
Right now those bond holders are freaking out.

"These notes last traded at 88.102, down from 92.299 on Tuesday, according to MarketAxess. Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday affirmed Under Armour’s credit rating at Baa2, or two notches above junk status, but lowered its outlook on company’s credit to negative." - WSJ

What is there to worry about? Quite a lot I am afraid.

http://on.wsj.com/2jwkROe

The unemployment rate was 4.8%, higher than last month’s 4.7%, and higher than expectations.  The labor force participation rate rose slig...

January Payroll Growth Good, But Wage Growth Just Ok

The unemployment rate was 4.8%, higher than last month’s 4.7%, and higher than expectations. 
The labor force participation rate rose slightly 62.9%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and financial activities.

When people quit their jobs it is often a good sign. Macroeconomics wise this is a good sign. People leave for a variety of reasons...

Voluntary Quits - 2016 Statistics







When people quit their jobs it is often a good sign. Macroeconomics wise this is a good sign. People leave for a variety of reasons but when work is good and job availability close at hand, employees "up and leave" at the drop of a hat. Interestingly enough the south has the highest spike (per this chart). My assumption is livability and purchasing power. If you see the chart below Northeast and West are close in count to each other.  So one can only guess. Dallas and Atlanta are both very large cities in the southeast, rife with population, money and industry, and less expensive from a housing and consumer perspective than New York City and San Francisco. Also, it is cheaper to roll out products lines and staffing experts for those products and new ventures in the South. I have no explanation for the Midwest. Maybe that is my next road trip. Onward, to French Lick, Indiana!