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2016-06-17

If The Data Had Agreed

Basically if the data had agreed...

When the data does not agree you get the below...


Despite Fed optimism for near-term improvement, the U.S. economy is expected to continue to alternate between “moderate” and “slow” activity levels, failing to meet even the Fed’s new, lower forecast of 2% growth in 2016, with lackluster price pressures well below the Committee’s longer-term objective of 2%.  Furthermore, with the debate over U.K. membership in the EU heating up, a near-term resolution on either side is unlikely, resulting in an overhang of “global risks.”  While the Fed has seemingly redirected their focus to September, swift improvement in the domestic economy is unlikely, making it difficult for the Fed to justify a second-round rate increase in a little more than two months.  Lingering “uncertainties” both domestic and international could further delay a second hike until the end of the year or beyond. - Stifel 

Housing Strikes Back


Housing starts fell in May and multi-family construction housing dropped. Single family homes went up. Housing consisted of a near .06% of  Q1 GDP - which is a big deal to some. 
The summer is here (sort of ) and that means the hope of ravenous home sales.

Fitch: In the Midst of a Multiyear US Housing Recovery 


"Challenges remain, including restrictive credit qualification standards and narrowing affordability. Various housing and related statistics bottomed in early to mid-2009. Since then, for a time, the on-and-off, then on-again nature of the federal housing credit spurred, or at least pulled forward, primarily entry-level buyer housing demand. With the US economy moving from recession to expansion in third-quarter 2009, plus very attractive housing affordability and government incentives, housing was jump-started. However, faltering consumer confidence, among other issues, had largely restrained the recovery. New home sales and single-family starts retested the bottom during the summer of 2010 and in February 2011. During second-half 2013, the sharp rise in home prices and interest rates and the government impasse over the budget and debt ceiling led many prospective homebuyers to take a careful stance in the shorter term. Consumer caution and poor weather from early in the year restrained the gain in housing metrics in 2014. The growth in starts, especially single-family, was more robust in 2015" - Fitch Ratings Press Release