Politics, Policy, Economics - Since 2010

Minimum wage increases make sense in geographical areas where municipalities and other government organizations can decide what is health...

Minimum Wage In 2017


Minimum wage increases make sense in geographical areas where municipalities and other government organizations can decide what is healthy for their region. 
Case in point- Manhattan and other ultra-high cost of living areas like San Francisco which hamper peoples income. 

To me it is all about housing. Economically I wish to see  - and help push forth - better policy that leaves more dollars in workers pockets, for saving or spending. 

Ratios and comps, from a regional based wage index in conjunction with regional consumer pricing indexes, makes sense for more action oriented economic decisions which lead to impactful legislation.

In Arizona the minimum wage will be increasing by more than 20%. As the minimum wage increases in states across the country this year - January 2017 - the costs will be passed along to the consumer, to a degree. California's minimum wage will increase to $10.50 per hour.


NYPost:
City businesses with 11 or more employees will be hit with a whopping 22 percent hike in wage costs for their lowest-paid workers, as the first phase — a $2-an-hour jump over the $9 minimum — kicks in.  By the end of 2018, the city’s wage floor is set to hit the full $15. The rest of the state, where the economy is far more dicey, gets a small break, as the hikes phase in more slowly — an obvious admission by Albany that they’ll take a toll. - http://nypost.com/2016/12/30/new-yorks-risky-15-wage-experiment-is-off-and-running/

Chart from Zermatt amd CS Hagan index unit- www.zermattinstitute.org

US Housing - CPI v. Price Index

Chart from Zermatt amd CS Hagan index unit- www.zermattinstitute.org



The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States rose to 98.2 in December 2016 compared to ...

Consumer Confidence (Data: November 2016)



The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the United States rose to 98.2 in December 2016 compared to a preliminary figure of 98 and a final 93.8 in November. It was the highest reading since January 2004, as consumers expected a favorable impact of Trump's policies on the economy.
The gauge of current economic conditions came in at 111.9 from a preliminary reading of 112.1 and a final of 107.3 in November; and the barometer of future expectations rose to 89.5 from 88.9 in the preliminary estimate and 85.2 the previous month.
Americans expect the inflation rate to be 2.2 percent next year, compared with 2.4 percent in November; and 2.3 percent over the next 5 years, down from 2.6 percent the previous month.
- Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
Here is a good reference point
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence






























Prior: 191.68, Actual: 191.79 - S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index, released by the Standard & Poor's, is a leading measure f...

US Housing 12/27/2016 - From October 31, 2016 - US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price

Prior: 191.68, Actual: 191.79 - S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index, released by the Standard & Poor's, is a leading measure for the US residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. Country: US Source: Standard & Poor's Prior: 191.68 Actual: 191.79 Date: 27-Dec-2016 14:00:00 Frequency: Monthly Period: 31-10-2016
http://www.standardandpoors.com/home/en/au

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Increased 5.1% in October - www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-increased-5-1-in-october

Home Equity Wealth Makes a Comeback https://shar.es/1D6k3c

HISTORICAL HOUSING MARKET DATA - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (QUARTERLY)
(Source: Yale Economic Research)

Date
CPI

12/31/2016

241.729


12/31/2015

236.525


12/31/2014

234.812


12/31/2013

233.049


12/31/2012

229.601


12/31/2011

225.672

The headlines read: Shopping has no season. The changes that have been looming over retail have now been signaled and compartmentalized...

Retail Has No Season: The New Normal

The headlines read: Shopping has no season.

The changes that have been looming over retail have now been signaled and compartmentalized into new trends of reality for retail and shopping. But the change is not stopping. These new trends are happening for a variety of reasons, but the internet cannot be blamed for the entirety of the uproar. This uproar has led to an empowerment of the consumer which has altered marketing, shopping and real estate, all of which has been changed greatly by the internet and continued developments in technology associated with connectivity and a flatter version of capitalism. Arguments can be made - regardless - that these changes are important and much needed. However, nothing is concrete at the moment but consumers can expect to pay up for (some) items in retail settings going forward:
ex. Moleskin Reporter Notebook @ Local Art Shop is $13.00 on Amazon it is $9.99.

I fear that grocery is next: food is fresh, frozen or processed. It is also distribution, territory and then branded food, etc. etc. Commodity groceries have been delivered in some capacity since day one. As soon as this shakes-up real estate, we will likely be able to start to track long term retail developments and shopping trends. 

Holiday Shopping Season Is Losing Steam



If you are in the SNF business you know regulation. For your toolbox. CMS New Regulation Phase 1-3 Phase One went into effect Novembe...

CMS Regs for Long-Term Care

If you are in the SNF business you know regulation.
For your toolbox.

CMS New Regulation Phase 1-3
Phase One went into effect November, 2016
@SlideShare

Quickly: There should be an infrastructure bank. - Chad ++ Current proposals for funding Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure project have...

How The Hell Do You Pay For President Trump’s $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

Quickly: There should be an infrastructure bank. - Chad


++

Current proposals for funding Trump’s $1 trillion infrastructure project have been heavily criticized. In October, his economic advisors Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro proposed funding the plan with tax credits to private investors, who would then borrow from the bond markets. An infrastructure bank tapping into private investment has also been suggested. Both rely on public/private partnerships. Michelle Chen, writing in The Nation on December 2, calls the plan “a full on privatization assault.”


To stimulate the economy, create new jobs and generate new GDP requires an injection of new money. Borrowing from the bond markets or off-balance-sheet in public/private partnerships won’t do it. If Congress won’t issue money directly, it should borrow from banks, which create money on their books when they make loans. 

- Ellen Brown (Link)

China says it is "seriously concerned" after US President-elect Donald Trump expressed doubts about continuing to abide by the &...

China, Meet Taiwan


China says it is "seriously concerned" after US President-elect Donald Trump expressed doubts about continuing to abide by the "One China" policy. - BBC

Taiwan is a raw nerve for China, the issue over which they reflexively threaten war. Beijing operates under the "One China principle," which regards Taiwan as a renegade province. This is subtly, but importantly, different to Washington’s "One China policy," which holds that there is only "One China," and that it is up to Beijing and Taipei to resolve the question of legitimate government between them. As a practical measure, the U.S. recognizes Beijing as legitimately representing the government of China, but does not accept Beijing's assertion of sovereignty over Taiwan. Indeed, the U.S. is pledged to defend Taiwan in the event that Beijing seeks to settle matters militarily. - Forbes


One China, Two China's, Three China's

Putin is less a problem than China. China is a problem. Putin and Trump - though I never expected to say the aforementioned in a presidential manner - can muscle China to break off Taiwan. The U.S. has pledged to back Taiwan irregardless in a conflict with Beijing. While the shake up may seem out of place, there are many Taiwanese nationals who want to be separate and wish to be recognized. Taiwan is not recognized as a separate nation by the major supra-national players.

I will not allow my funds to use Hong Kong based accounts, as I don't have faith in China and don't want red-tape or strange issues that could effect me as an international investor. Seoul, Korea is a safe haven for me. China is tough to trust.
Hong Kong and Taiwan need to be independent. I do not know if this is President Trump's plan, but it is not a bad one if he wants to make changes.

When I meet citizens from Taipei, they all mention they are from Taiwan.
Trump calling the President of Taiwan publicly the "President of Taiwan" is radical from a diplomatic perspective, but not radical from a business and economic perspective. Diplomats got us into this mess to begin with, perhaps they deserve to be shaken up a bit.

You can make a ton of assumptions by looking at this chart. While prices are rising, jobs are vanishing (that is one). ...

Inflation Nation: CPI & Non-Farm Payrolls

You can make a ton of assumptions by looking at this chart.
While prices are rising, jobs are vanishing (that is one).
















Chart Link
The chart above shows the percentage change in non-farm payrolls with the percentage change in the consumer price index starting in January of 1939. The divide begins in 1970. What is non-farm? Outside of it not being payrolls from a farm "nonfarm payroll is a monthly report generated and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business" - Investopedia.
Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees - Wikipedia

Modern assassinations are interesting, rather scary and in my personal opinion strange but they have not fallen out of favor for the insan...

Latest Assassination Is For Syria


Modern assassinations are interesting, rather scary and in my personal opinion strange but they have not fallen out of favor for the insane or for toughies, unlike dueling or jousting. Adding the mere fact of the potential makes one wish to stay highly old fashioned and bolted up inside. The scare of being assassinated is pretty uncommon in America, and if one were to do a study on the statistics of assassinations I suspect you would see clusters of geographical hotbeds through the decades and crime trends. Regardless - assassinations - I have blogged about them before and one of my more popular posts is about an assassination via a pneumatic umbrella in London: See "Death By Umbrella"

Recent news:
An Ankara police officer dressed in a suit and tie shouted slogans about Syria’s civil war after he killed Russia’s ambassador to Turkey in front of stunned onlookers at a photo exhibition in the Turkish capital on Monday, according to officials and an Associated Press photographer who witnessed the shooting. Police later killed the assailant.

Russia & Turkey assured fellow envoys and grandee's that Russian-Turkish relations will not be affected. Here is a link to the video with the shooter, and live updated via The Independent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the killing of the Russian ambassador to Ankara is designed to spoil Russo-Turkish ties. Mr Putin said the killing of Andrey Karlov in the Turksih capital was also intended to derail the Syria peace process.

Filene's Basement filed Chapter 11 three times in 12 years, essentially Chapter 33, before closing for good. The idea is that a company...

In Bankruptcy Again, American Apparel Still Takes On Massive Debt

Filene's Basement filed Chapter 11 three times in 12 years, essentially Chapter 33, before closing for good. The idea is that a company goes into Chapter 11, restructures and emerges ready to whether the current economic industry conditions, and packed full of long term plan after long term plan for success, or at least an event that leads to value.
Every investment banker appreciates a good loan. However, apparel companies in this day and age cannot afford debt with a premium.
American Apparel is currently liquidating assets and most of it has been sold to Gildan.

Some companies never make it out of bankruptcy, and -- like Filene's -- end up liquidating. But for those that do emerge, and then tumble into bankruptcy again, it's a failure of everyone involved.

- Ed Altman, the Max L. Heine Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University (Reuters 2012 Article Link)


Recent News: The retailer secured a $30 million financing package from post-bankruptcy lender Encina Business Credit LLC to fund the costs of its chapter 11 case prior to its November bankruptcy filing.

When all else fails, look to the east - the Middle East! London has been replaced by Asia, and now with a looming Sharia Standard taking pl...

As Gold Pulls Down, Sharia Gold Standard Pushes Up

When all else fails, look to the east - the Middle East! London has been replaced by Asia, and now with a looming Sharia Standard taking place, Gold is still staying as vigilant as ever worldwide.

Gold is not a great investment. In modern times it has made many people money, but that is from volatility, market making and speculation. As for holding value, there are numerous out looks on that.

However, if Indian's continue to flock into the Middle East, and or if the Middle East deals gold out to India and South East Asia then it all makes sense. The funny thing is that gold seems to have lost its luster in English speaking countries. Gold is also a terrible inflation hedge. (See ZermattResearch.com & NBER Slide)

I think Gold is overweight. $700.00 per troy oz is where is should be.  - Chad Hagan


Sharia Gold Standard Link
As the Islamic financial services market grows in size and importance, so does the need for a greater understanding of the intricate matters of Islamic financial services and the application of Shariah guidance. The Islamic financial services industry is also witnessing greater implementation of internationally recognized and standardized Islamic finance guidance. - Shariah Standard on Gold


“Gold has motivated civilizations through the centuries to aim higher and strive harder. Gold is more than just a financial asset; it is an integral component of human life. "
-Dr. Hamed Hassen Merah, 
Secretary-General
Accounting and Auditing Organisation of Islamic Financial Institutions



This is on disposable - not discretionary. Disposable income is the amount of net income a household or individual has available to invest...

United States Disposable Personal Income 1959-2016

This is on disposable - not discretionary. Disposable income is the amount of net income a household or individual has available to invest, save, or spend after income taxes.



source: tradingeconomics.com


More info on the topic without charts.

Hooked on (USA) inflation - Chad

Inflation 1996 - 2016


Hooked on (USA) inflation - Chad








The Financial Choice Act http://www.slideshare.net/chaganomics/the-financial-choice-act STOCK MARKET CONFIDENCE INDICES - UNITED STATES...

Dodd - Frank Rollback Despite NY Fed Stating Work Is Not Finished

The Financial Choice Act
http://www.slideshare.net/chaganomics/the-financial-choice-act

STOCK MARKET CONFIDENCE INDICES - UNITED STATES CRASH INDEX DATA - INSTITUTIONAL (Source: Yale Economic Research)

Date: 12/31/2016
Index Value: 24.74
Standard Error: 4.38

Date: 12/31/2015
Index Value: 40
Standard Error: 4.22

Date: 12/31/2014
Index Value: 28.14
Standard Error: 3.48

Date: 12/31/2013
Index Value: 37.5
Standard Error: 3.36

Date: 12/31/2012
Index Value: 31.34
Standard Error: 3.27

Date: 12/31/2011
Index Value: 22.03
Standard Error: 2.7

++

LABOR FORCE, TOTAL United States 
(Source: World Bank World Development Indicators)

Date: 12/31/2014
Value: 161074378

Date: 12/31/2013
Value: 159815818

Date: 12/31/2012
Value: 159324840

Date: 12/31/2011
Value: 157979096

A rollback of Dodd-Frank makes sense, but it must be limited.
I agree with many anti-inflation hawks that derivatives trading can create mega issues, and the risk from OTC derivatives requires higher capital requirements
Here are useful tidbits and articles from the last few months regarding the topic. 

"I think it would be very unfortunate if there is any significant rollback of the regulation which was introduced over the last five years," Adair Turner, who led Britain's Financial Services Authority during the financial crisis and was one of the architects of the new banking rules, said on Wednesday.

The United States "absolutely must" complete unfinished work ending the too-big-to-fail bank problem that helped plunge the global economy into recession eight years ago, an influential Federal Reserve policymaker said on Saturday.

NEW YORK, Dec 3 ― Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said US regulators, despite having made the financial system safer and less prone to panics, still had not eliminated the threat posed by institutions considered “too big to fail.” “This is work that we absolutely must complete,” he said in prepared remarks he’s scheduled to deliver Saturday at a conference on financial regulation in New York. “Without a well-functioning resolution process, the consequences of such a failure could still be catastrophic.” Dudley’s comments come amid uncertainty over how far the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump will go in dismantling rules designed to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Republicans in Congress are preparing legislation that would roll back much of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act that included regulations designed to prevent a repeat of the meltdown. Dudley said the US financial system was “much more resilient” than it was before the crisis, as reforms had made banks better able to absorb shocks and had removed structural issues that made the system more vulnerable. ‘Big problems’ Still, banks had not yet done enough to allow for their own orderly resolution in an emergency, he said. “This requires having clean parent holding company structures, less corporate complexity, and essential service and support operations that are able to continue to operate even when the parent company becomes non-viable,” he said. Dudley also said banks had not done enough to encourage whistle-blowing to expose wrongdoing at an early stage. “Big problems can be nipped in the bud when people speak up and senior management responds appropriately,” he said. Dudley didn’t talk about his economic outlook or monetary policy. Fed officials are set to enter a quiet period on Tuesday ahead of their Dec. 13-14 meeting, when analysts and traders widely expect them to raise their benchmark interest rate for the first time since late last year. Other US central bankers in recent days have signalled their willingness to tighten monetary policy this month, as the jobs market shows signs of improvement and inflation moves closer to the Fed’s target. A Labour Department report yesterday showed hiring increased in November and unemployment fell to a nine-year low of 4.6 per cent. Bloomberg/ Malay

Free Lunch Is Opportunity Cost In Economics - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost Just saying: there is such thing as a free ...

There Is Such A Thing As Free Lunch - Free Lunch Is Opportunity Cost In Economics


Free Lunch Is Opportunity Cost In Economics - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

Just saying: there is such thing as a free lunch, it usually involves a trade off (free lunch at a bar if you order a muinimum of drinks).

TINSTAAFL - There is no such thing as a free lunch. 

The above only makes sense in reference to equity speculators who expect no risk. I do not agree that the comment, acronym, or that the phrase replaces opportunity cost in economics. It is also my opinion that the phrase is dated and out of touch with modern economics.