If The Data Had Agreed

Basically if the data had agreed...

When the data does not agree you get the below...


Despite Fed optimism for near-term improvement, the U.S. economy is expected to continue to alternate between “moderate” and “slow” activity levels, failing to meet even the Fed’s new, lower forecast of 2% growth in 2016, with lackluster price pressures well below the Committee’s longer-term objective of 2%.  Furthermore, with the debate over U.K. membership in the EU heating up, a near-term resolution on either side is unlikely, resulting in an overhang of “global risks.”  While the Fed has seemingly redirected their focus to September, swift improvement in the domestic economy is unlikely, making it difficult for the Fed to justify a second-round rate increase in a little more than two months.  Lingering “uncertainties” both domestic and international could further delay a second hike until the end of the year or beyond. - Stifel