He we go...

If Oil Has Found The Bottom Than The Dollar Has Peaked - Or Something Like That...

He we go...

GOLD Gold started positively into the new year and has recorded a price increase by approx. 7.5% since the start of the year. The metal bene...

Metals Update - Heraeus Metals Germany GmbH & Co. -


Gold started positively into the new year and has recorded a price increase by approx. 7.5% since the start of the year. The metal benefitted from the falling oil prices firstly as well as from the fears of a weaker global economy. Gold became more attractive again as a safe haven asset in this environment. The unexpected announcement of the Swiss National Bank to cancel the minimum Euro exchange rate led to a price increase by 2.5 % on Thursday and a weekly gain of 4.5%. Worried investors escaped from volatile investment classes into Gold: Thus, the SPDR Gold Trust which is the biggest Gold ETF had an inflow of 1.4 % on Thursday and of 1.9 % on Friday - this was the biggest daily percentage increase in almost 5 years. There is increased physical demand from Switzerland which is not surprising after the revaluation of the Swiss Franc: Gold dropped in local currency from 1,250 CHF/oz to approx. 1,050 CHF/oz temporarily. In Asia in turn buyers are hesitant due to the increased prices. Further information with regard to the Quantitative Easing program by the ECB to support the economy are awaited eagerly. While Gold should benefit by it monetary measures by the ECB will further burden the Euro. Currently Gold is not affected by the strong USD. This morning Gold trades at 1,275 $/oz and we also see good support for the metal in the coming days.


In the wake of Gold Silver’s character as a substitute currency and safe haven asset was also in the foreground past week. Thus, Silver could achieve a 7.5% gain throughout the week and resisted the overall devaluation seen in industrial commodities such as Palladium, Oil and Copper. The solid physical demand in the US thanks to an economic upswing surely also supported the price. This week, all signs point to a continued rise in price. Of particular interest is especially the ECB meeting on Thursday with a respective press conference afterwards at 2:30 pm and their information on the broadly based government bond purchase program. A respective flood of liquidity as well as ongoing low to negative interest rates could further drive investors into investment metals. Current support lies at 17.00 $/oz. After the resistance at 17.20 $/oz was broken on Friday, the next resistance level is at 18.00 $/oz.


Since end of December Platinum has been in an upward trend. After the metal opened at 1,227 $/oz, it closed with a weekly increase by 3 % at 1,264 $/oz. This morning Platinum is trading at 1,266 $/oz. Thus, Platinum got into the waves of gold which reacted to the Swiss National Bank’s decision on the annulment of the minimum rate of the Swiss Franc with a price increase. In Platinum we could not observe a particular increase in demand. Furthermore, there is news from the South African mines again. Thus, operations have been suspended at Northam Platinum since Friday due to extensive safety measures which should support the price increase. Platinum has thus broken through its daily cloud resistance and targets a new resistance level at 1,286 $/oz. On the charts we see support at 1,245 $/oz and at 1,238 $/oz. Due to the developments of last week and the price decline in Palladium the Platinum : Palladium ratio shot up as well. An ounce of Platinum currently equals 1.68 oz of Palladium. Looking forward we see Platinum well supported particularly through the European automobile industry which recorded a sales growth by almost 6% in 2014.


In the middle of the last week Palladium went through a hefty price decline. Thus, on Wednesday there was an intraday price decline of almost 40 $/oz. This equals a decline by almost 6% and thus is the biggest daily loss since June 2013. After opening the reporting period at 797 $/oz Palladium closed the week only at 751 $/oz. Palladium Futures also suffered the biggest decline since almost 7 months. The main reason for this is the price decline in industrial metals - particularly copper. This in turn has been triggered by the projections by the World Bank on the global economy lowering the growth rates for 2015 as well as 2016. Commodity markets reacted to this adjustment the most. Thereby Europe, Japan, Russia as well as parts of Latin America are in the main focus. Thus, sinking oil prices also play a significant role in this adjustment as oil exporters like Russia are strongly affected by the oil price plunge. Analysts believe that the declining Palladium price in this year is solely attributed to the repositioning of a few market players who would like to balance out their Pd Long positions/Pt Short positions. The oil price decline gives hope as the sinking oil prices provide further momentum to the growing automobile industry. As mentioned in our H1 2015 precious metals forecast there is a strong correlation between the Palladium price and the developments in the automobile market. Thus, we stay bullish in our expectations for Palladium. On the charts resistance for Palladium is at 778 $/oz and at 792 $/oz, support at 755 $/oz.


Rhodium has unfortunately not developed very positively in the reporting period and has undergone a development opposite to platinum. At the beginning of the week the price difference was “only” at 35 $/oz which has now shot up to 85 $/oz. Demand for Rhodium is currently very limited which is on the one hand due to the year just beginning and thus buyers being still a bit hesitant. On the other hand buyers who currently do not have to urgently cover a need are in a very comfortable situation as the available supply is relatively big and currently there is no risk of fast and strong counter movements. Regardless of the price trading significantly under the 1,200 $/oz mark again there have not been any large purchases yet. However it shall be noted that this is a price level which we have not seen for 6 months and thus is to be treated with caution.

Ruthenium is trading slightly weaker than in the past weeks as there have also been a couple of sellers at the beginning of the year in an already weak market. Sales were relatively high despite of the difficult circumstances and if purchases should remain on this current level then the 50 $/oz mark is surely a very good support line.

In Iridium there was immediately good demand right at the beginning of this year which slightly pulled up the price. In the reporting period the price increased by 15 $/oz and compared to our last report from 2014 even by 35 $/oz which is significant in percentage terms. We continue to see good demand coming from all Iridium applicants and see upside potential for the price in near future.

Sonia Hellwig
Senior Manager Sales und Marketing

Heraeus Metals Germany GmbH & Co. KG
Edelmetallhandel/Trading Division
Heraeusstrasse 12-14
63450 Hanau

Phone/Sales +49 (0) 6181/35-2760
Fax +49 (0) 6181/35-9444
E-mail sonia.hellwig@heraeus.com
Internet www.heraeus-edelmetallhandel.de Thanks!! Chad

10:19, 15 Jan 2015 (Thu) By John Revill ZURICH--Swiss businesses are bracing themselves for negative effects from the scrapping of the S...

Swiss Businesses Fear Impact of Central Bank's Franc Move

10:19, 15 Jan 2015 (Thu)
By John Revill

ZURICH--Swiss businesses are bracing themselves for negative effects from the scrapping of the Swiss central bank's cap for the franc-euro, a move that could sharply reduce the value of sales to their key European markets. The blue chip Swiss Market Index plunged 9.6% in lunchtime trading, and billions of Swiss francs were wiped from the value of companies such as cement maker Holcim AG and pharma giant Novartis AG, after the Swiss National Bank said it would eliminate a long-observed cap of 1.20 francs per euro. Representatives from Novartis declined to comment, while Holcim said the drop reflected the general development of the Swiss market. The SNB's decision, which caused the franc to surge in value to about 1.03 per euro from around 1.20, was particularly critical for companies which rely on sales to the 19 countries in the eurozone--Switzerland's biggest export market and buyer of more than half of the Alpine country's products. A rise in the value of the Swiss franc reduces the value of sales made in euros, and pressures profitability. It also makes Swiss products less attractive if Swiss companies raise their euro-denominated prices to compensate. Swiss watchmakers are vulnerable as they have to produce most of their products within Switzerland, to qualify for a so-called Swiss-made label. Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Swiss watchmakers' federation said he was "anxious" about the decision, and feared a negative impact on exports. Among the companies worst affected in Thursday's selloff were the watchmakers Swatch Group AG and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, both of which saw their stock plunge 15%. Swatch Chief Executive Officer Nick Hayek has previously been among the strongest supporters of the 1.20 Swiss franc per euro minimum exchange rate, which was introduced by the SNB in September 2011 to prevent deflation and help Swiss companies remain competitive. Mr. Hayek said Thursday's decision by SNB President Thomas Jordan to scrap the minimum exchange rate will have disastrous consequences for Switzerland. "Words fail me," Mr. Hayek said in a prepared statement. "Jordan isn't only the name of the SNB president, but also of a river and today's SNB action is a tsunami; for the export industry and for tourism, and finally for the entire country." Also likely to be badly hit by the SNB's decision are machine tool makers, one of Switzerland's largest export sectors. The rise of the franc made Swiss companies less competitive and "profit margins will melt," said Ivo Zimmermann, spokesman for their association Swissmem. "Companies are thinking about what to do next," Mr. Zimmermann said. "They are very worried." Plumbing and building supplies company Geberit AG said Thursday that for every 10% rise in the value of the franc, the value of the company's sales would fall by 7% to 9%, while its profit margin would be reduced by 0.5%. Industry associations said exporters wouldn't be the only part of the Swiss economy to be hit. "Suppliers to the exporters in Switzerland will come under pressure to reduce prices again," said Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, the country's main business association which represents around 100,000 companies. There was also likely to be a surge in consumers shopping outside Switzerland, crossing over the borders into neighboring France, Italy and Germany, depressing consumer spending within Switzerland. Another worry was the lack of certainty which the minimum exchange rate gave and many companies based their decision making around, Mr. Minsch said. Many now expect the Swiss economy, which has consistently outperformed its neighbors in recent years, to slow. Switzerland's annualized growth hit 1.9% in the third quarter, compared with just 0.6% in the eurozone. Investment was likely to be reduced as a result of the uncertainty, while jobs and wages could also come under pressure. The Swiss Federation of Trade Unions estimates around 80,000 jobs could be lost if the Swiss franc settles in the long term around parity with the euro. The resulting rise in the value of the Swiss franc would put pressure on wage levels and employment, while it could also lead to more outsourcing, its chief economist Daniel Lampart said. Write to John Revill at john.revill@wsj.com

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires January 15, 2015 10:19 ET (15:19 GMT)

EURUSD is trading at historic lows – the lowest in almost a decade – after breaking the psychological level of 1.20. This may be only the st...

Dembik: QE is coming and the euro will slide

EURUSD is trading at historic lows – the lowest in almost a decade – after breaking the psychological level of 1.20. This may be only the starting point of a deeper and more prolonged depreciation of the euro towards 1.15. The two key elements behind the drop are the resurgence of the sovereign debt crisis and expectations that the European Central Bank will launch a policy easing program to avoid Japanese-style deflation in the euro area.
Once again, the ECB will have no choice other than to take the lead in order to reassure investors. This means implementing a sovereign bonds purchasing programme despite German reluctance. It may not be the best option to strengthen growth and reinforce inflation but it is the only option left.
The ECB may launch this programme as soon as January 22. Over the past few weeks, pressure has increased on the central bank after the publication of data confirming the increasing risk of deflation in the Eurozone. For the first time since 2009, year-on-year inflation turned negative, as measured by the December Eurozone CPI estimate, with much of the pressure coming from the 30% plunge in the oil price since Opec’s last meeting in November. LINK - Saxo Bank

TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures extended  declines to a third day on Monday to stay near their lowest  level in more than five y...

Jan. 5th Japan - US CRUDE at lowest level in five years

TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures extended 
declines to a third day on Monday to stay near their lowest 
level in more than five years, hurt by a slew of weak economic 
data in the worlds biggest oil consumer. 

* NYMEX crude for February delivery CLc1 was down 39 cents 
at $52.30 a barrel by 2340 GMT, after settling down 58 cents at 
on Friday. The contract fell as low as $52.03 on Friday, the 
lowest since May 2009. 
* London Brent crude for February delivery LCOc1 was down 
52 cents at $55.90 a barrel, after settling down 91 cents. 
* In a sign of tepid economic conditions, U.S. construction 
spending unexpectedly fell 0.3 percent in November, while the 
pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slipped to a 
six-month low in December, according to the Institute for Supply 
Management. ID:nL1N0UH0OD 
* Oil prices have been choppy due to thin trading volume at 
the start of the new year, analysts said. A big slide in oil 
prices has accelerated after OPEC declined to restrict oil 
output in November despite pressure from its member nations. 
* The plunge in oil prices in the past six months wont 
affect Kuwaits economic development projects and the 
governmenht will continue to support capital expenditure in the 
economy, Finance Minister Anas al-Saleh said on Sunday. 

* U.S. stocks closed little changed on Friday in the first 
trading session of 2015, finishing well off session highs as 
economic data short-circuited early gains. .N 
* The euro tumbled to its lowest level since early 2006 in 
Asia on Monday as a wave of stop-loss sales were tripped on the 
break of major chart support, sending the U.S. dollar flying 
higher against a range of competitors. USD/ 

* The following data is expected on Monday: (Time in GMT) 
- 0135 Japan Manufacturing PMI Dec JPRPMI=ECI 
- 0500 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales Dec USVEH=ECI 
- 1445 U.S. ISM-New York Index Dec USNYBC=ECI 

(Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori; Editing by Eric Walsh) 
((osamu.tsukimori@thomsonreuters.com, +813 6441 1857, Reuters 
Messaging: osamu.tsukimori.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net;)) 


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