OpCo's 2014 in 2014 Forecast Rings True

S&P 500 Justifies Oppenheimer’s 2,014 in 2014: Chart of the Day

By David Wilson

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- When John Stoltzfus predicted almost a year ago that the S&P 500 would end 2014 at 2,014, the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. was more optimistic than any of his Wall Street peers.

As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, Stoltzfus was vindicated for his bullishness. The S&P 500 surpassed his estimate at the end of last week and held above the projection yesterday, when it closed at 2,017.81.

The chart begins on Nov. 19, when the New York-based strategist made his call. At that time, he was the only one of 15 strategists in a Bloomberg survey to see the index at 2,000 or higher this year. As of yesterday, 16 of 20 strategists did.

Stoltzfus said in a telephone interview yesterday that he will revisit the 2,014 estimate after today’s election results are tallied.

“If we do bump it up, I can’t imagine it will be a heck of a lot,” he said. “This market could easily move sideways and close pretty much where we are, or somewhat higher.” He added that he plans to make his initial 2015 call within the next two weeks.

The S&P 500 climbed 13 percent from last Nov. 19 through yesterday. Sustained U.S. economic expansion, rising corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy spurred the gain, he said.

The 2,014-in-2014 estimate was matched by Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, last December. Parker shifted to a 12-month forecast in June and now sees the S&P 500 reaching 2,125 by next November.



David Wilson