At a glance and with a bevy of charts, we take a look at current business cycles, labor and the employment situation in America. "Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care and manufacturing. The strength of the U.S. labor market is evident from the most-recent Labor Department figures which showed that U.S. filings for unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to 210,000, the lowest since December 1969 (better than the estimation of 225,000)." - NASDAQ

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2018 Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data In January, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.7 million, changed little over the month.

Healthcare, Food + Drink

Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in January (+31,000). The industry has added 255,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Employment in health care continued to trend up in January (+21,000), with a gain of 13,000 in hospitals. In 2017, health care added an average of 24,000 jobs per month.

Housing + Construction

Construction added 36,000 jobs in January, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Employment in residential building construction continued to trend up over the month (+5,000). Over the year, construction employment has increased by 226,000.

Data from: LTCI Economics, DB Research, Atlanta FED

A Quick Look At South Korea: 

February headline inflation rose to 1.4% year-on-year from 1.0% in the previous month, above expectations. While inflation moved back towards the lower end of the BOK target range of 1.5%-2.5%, it was still below the December 2017 figure. Core inflation also inched up to 1.2%. 

Headline CPI rose 0.8% from a month ago, the sharpest sequential rise since last year's lunar New Year holidays in Jan 2017. Food prices rose the sharpest, by 2.9%, adding 0.4pp to sequential growth, in reflection of holiday spending. Food inflation on a year-on-year basis accelerated to +2.2%, the first acceleration since Aug 2017. 

Sources: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, LTCI Economics

Serbia

The economy had a mixed performance in 2017, with slow economic growth in the first half of the year followed by an acceleration in the second half. A flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 January put year-on-year economic growth at 2.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.1% in the third quarter and placing overall economic growth at 1.9% in 2017. Moreover, customs data suggested that exports grew healthily in December, although the trade deficit still increased as imports grew at a faster pace. Meanwhile, on the political front, local elections will take place in Belgrade on 4 March. Some politicians from the ruling Progressive Party had called for holding snap parliamentary elections alongside them. But, in a move that should steady the political landscape, President Aleksandar Vucić said on 8 January that his Progressive Party does not plan to call snap elections this year. Increased government spending, particularly on wages, pensions and infrastructure investment, should support domestic demand in 2018. Moreover, the continuation of accommodative monetary policy should support the economy this year. However, although public debt is now on a downward trend, it remains large enough to be of concern. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists again project growth of 3.1%.  Inflation accelerated from 2.8% in November to 3.0% in December. On 11 January, the National Bank of Serbia decided to maintain its key policy rate at 3.50% for the third consecutive month. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 2.9% in 2018. For 2019, our panelists expect inflation to rise to 3.3%.

Monetary Policy:
Consumer prices remained unchanged from the previous month in December, just as they did in November. According to the Statistical Institute, price increases for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, transport, and recreation and culture were offset by lower prices for clothing and footwear, and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Inflation accelerated from 2.8% in November to 3.0% in December, precisely hitting the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range. Annual average inflation climbed from 3.0% in November to 3.2% in December. Core inflation—which excludes volatile items including energy, food, alcohol and cigarettes—ticked down to 1.3% in December from 1.4% in November. The Central Bank has set its inflation target for this year and the next at 3.0% plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees inflation rising to 3.3%. Read More At FocusEconomics.

Kosovo

From The World Bank & Chaganomics Research

Kosovo is a parliamentary republic. It declared independence on February 17, 2008 and is recognized as an independent country by 114 out of 193 United Nations members and by 23 out of 28 EU members.

Kosovo is a potential candidate for EU membership, a process that was accelerated with the signing of the Stabilization Association Agreement with the EU in October 2015, in force since April 2016. The current Government, a coalition comprised of five larger political parties and several smaller ones, was voted into office on September 9, 2017. It controls a slim majority, only 61 out of 120 parliamentary seats.

Although Kosovo’s economic growth has outperformed its neighbors and been largely inclusive, it has not been sufficient to significantly reduce the high rates of unemployment; provide formal jobs, particularly for women and youth; or reverse the trend of large-scale outmigration. The current growth model relies heavily on remittances to fuel domestic consumption.

Kosovo’s growth strategy needs to be focused on addressing the infrastructure bottlenecks in energy, creating an environment more conducive to private sector development, equipping its young population with the skills demanded by employers, and building up governance and the rule of law to fully reap the benefits of EU integration, unleash productivity gains, and create quality jobs that foster inclusion.

Chaganomics: Republic of Kosovo Per Capita Income is a mix at $3,641.00 and $3,890.70 respectfully. 

New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in January 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.8 percent (±19.0 percent)* below the revised December rate of 643,000 and is 1.0 percent (±16.4 percent)* below the January 2017 estimate of 599,000. Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2018 was $323,000. The average sales price was $382,700. For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 301,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate. Read More Here. 

Gold and Silver - the ancient set of currency commodities -  metals which many considered a form of money, and are often talked about by both sides of the spectrum. Endless banter about these two, and if a move happens before the holidays - the news is set for the next few months. The point in this post is to show the daily settle price of Gold and Silver for reference, and to present the thought that Silver and Gold may both drop. 

Gold has been on a stride since before the (English speaking) new year. No doubt bolstered by fear from geopolitical risks to inflation. Since 2000 I have watched the price of Gold skyrocket without much remorse or any sprinkle of a reversion to the mean. This was caused by numerous events - financial and political - and over time we had a rise in Silver.  Silver peaked May 02, 2011 at $46.08 per troy ounce. I am bearish on Silver and a tad bearish on Gold, despite believing the prices will remain within 5-10% of current value for the next...the next while...

Gold Analysis From FocusEconomics:

Gold prices were volatile in recent weeks, weighed on by both upward and downward price pressures. On 9 February, gold closed the trading day at USD 1,313 per troy ounce, which was up 0.1% from the same day of January. The price was up 6.4% from the same day last year and was 0.8% higher on a year-to-date basis. Gold prices have risen in recent months, largely due to a weak U.S. dollar. Putting upward pressure on prices was a large sell-off in the U.S. stock market, which supported safe-haven demand for gold. On 5 February, U.S. stock markets recorded the worst trading day over six years. In addition, strong jewelry demand from India is adding upward pressure, along with a highly uncertain global backdrop. Moreover, recent data revealed that mine production fell in the fi rst nine months of 2017, in part due to output cuts in China amid environmental concerns. Meanwhile, an expected tightening in global interest rates is limiting gold’s gains. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent commented in February that interest rates could be raised sooner than previously expected and at a quicker pace. FocusEconomics analysts see gold prices receding slightly in the coming quarters but regaining ground in 2019. The global geopolitical climate should continue to support demand for gold; however, monetary policy tightening will weigh on the asset’s appeal. FocusEconomics analysts see the price of gold averaging USD 1,284 per troy ounce in the fourth quarter of 2018. In 2019, gold prices are projected to rise steadily throughout the year and average USD 1,334 per troy ounce in Q4. This month, most of our analysts left their projections unchanged. 14 forecasters made no changes to their projections for Q4 2018. However, 9 analysts raised their forecasts, while 2 analysts cut their forecasts. The bulk of our panel sees prices ending the year at a lower level. Some analysts, however, have a more bullish view, and the maximum forecast is for gold to average USD 1,460 per troy ounce in Q4 2018. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the minimum forecast is USD 1,100 per troy ounce.

Silver Analysis From FocusEconomics:

Silver prices lost ground at the beginning of February following a rise in January, as supply came in above demand. The recent price drop came despite higher investor demand for the precious metal amid a big sell-off in U.S. stock markets. On 9 February, silver closed the trading day at USD 16.3 per troy ounce, which was 4.2% lower than on the same day in January. The price was down 4.5% on a year-to-date basis and was 8.2% lower than on the same day in 2017. A growing supply of the precious metal ha s led to a supply surplus and downward price pressures. These have more than off set upward price pressures stemming from the recent plunge in the U.S. stock market, which recorded the worst trading day in over six years on 5 February, ramping up investor appetite to hold the safe-haven metal. Price gains have also been limited due to expectations of a hike in global interest rates. Leading the course on tightening monetary policy, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates two to three times this year, and the Bank of England also recently signaled sooner and more aggressive rate hikes to come. Prices are expected to gain ground as supply and demand dynamics become more favorable on recovering industrial and investor demand, and more limited supply. However, geopolitical tensions will continue to propel upside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect prices to rise moderately this year, averaging USD 17.3 per troy ounce in Q4 2018. The panel sees silver prices rising further in 2019, to an average of USD 18.5 per troy ounce in Q4. The majority of our panelists held their forecasts for Q4 2018 steady from last month: 10 analysts made no changes to their projections. Meanwhile, 5 panelists raised their projections, and 4 revised down their forecasts. There was a divergence in panelists’ views: The maximum price forecast for Q4 2018 was USD 20.1 per troy ounce, while the minimum projected price was USD 15.3 per troy ounce.

Quits, layoffs and discharges, other separations, and total separations, January 2007–November 2017

From the BLS: The number of total separations, which is the sum of quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, was 5.2 million in November. The number of quits, which can serve as a measure of workers' willingness or ability to leave jobs, was little changed from the previous month for total private industry. Quits increased in November 2017 in transportation, warehousing, and utilities and state and local government, excluding education. Quits decreased in other services, real estate and rental and leasing, and mining and logging. The number layoffs and discharges was also little changed from October. The number of layoffs and discharges was little changed for total private, for government, and in all industries.

Here is a link to our Voluntary Quits 2016 post.

• One year into Donald Trump’s presidency, the economy has maintained solid growth momentum

in what has so far already been the country’s third-longest economic expansion on record. In

a bid to better assess what 2018 holds for the U.S. economy, we polled our global network of

analysts. Of the sample of economists from international and local economic institutions we

contacted, 95 answered the survey. This special report includes the highlights from our poll.

• The analysts surveyed are broadly in agreement regarding the robustness of the economy’s

fundamentals, and they largely see 2018 growth either accelerating or remaining steady at last

year’s rate of expansion. They expect the recently approved tax rewrite and a weaker dollar to

shore up business investment, but many are skeptical on the long-term benefits of the tax cuts.

• The majority of the economists surveyed expect stronger inflation and a tight labor market to

warrant three interest rate hikes this year. On trade, analysts believe NAFTA will be preserved

with only minor changes, while most respondents see no meaningful trade dispute taking

place with China. Finally, analysts are split on Democrats’ chances at taking back the House of

Representatives in this year’s November midterm elections.

Healthy GDP data for the fourth quarter rounded off a strong year of growth in the U.S. economy. Household spending rose in Q4 at a solid rate on continued job growth, increased wages and high stock prices, while fixed investment benefitted from sky-high business sentiment and reconstruction efforts following weather-related disruptions in Q3. The GDP report came on top of a string of upbeat data releases suggesting momentum likely carried over into 2018. Survey-based manufacturing data for December and January showed soaring order books, while initial jobless claims continued to decline up to the week ending on 20 January, an early indication that employment growth remained resilient at the start of the year. Despite the rosy economic picture, political wrangling dominated headlines in recent weeks. Following a brief shutdown, Congress struck a deal on 22 January to reopen the federal government through 8 February but failed to resolve the underlying issues that caused the shutdown, including an agreement on DACA. An accommodative fiscal stance should lift consumer spending and nonresidential investment this year, while an exceedingly tight labor market, strong momentum in the housing sector and upbeat stock prices will continue to buttress economic activity. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 2.6% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, growth is seen moderating to 2.1%.

Inflation eased to 2.1% in December from 2.2% in November. That said, core inflation inched up to 1.8%, reinforcing market expectations of an interest rate hike at the Fed’s March monetary policy meeting. Members of the FOMC project three interest rate increases in 2018 as employment continues to rise and inflationary pressures mount. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation averaging 2.2% in both 2018 and 2019.

Retail sales finished the year on a strong note, growing 0.4% from the previous month in December and falling just short of market expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase. December’s print came in below the upwardly revised 0.9% expansion recorded in the previous month. Although December’s figure marked the lowest rate since August, it suggests sustained robustness in private consumption growth in the fourth quarter and showcases the overall health of the U.S. economy. Strong December sales were led by a very sturdy performance in non-store retailers, a component dominated by e-commerce, which saw sales jump 1.2% month-on-month in December. Furniture stores and building materials retailers also performed above average, with monthly sales growing 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively. Vehicle sales increased modestly by 0.2% in December, whereas gasoline sales remained steady from the previous month. Meanwhile, miscellaneous store retailers logged a notable 2.9% mom dip in sales, while clothing stores and electronics and appliances stores recorded smaller sales contractions in December. In annual terms, growth in retail sales moderated to 5.4% in December from an upwardly revised multi-year high of 6.0% recorded in the previous month. Annual average retail sales growth ticked up to 4.6% in December from 4.5% in October, marking the highest print in nearly five years. 

Whereas strong sales numbers point to a marked contribution from consumers to GDP in the last quarter of the year, it also points toward potential overheating and pro-inflationary risks in the U.S. economy, which could lead to rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as early as the first quarter of 2018. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.6% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees private consumption increasing 2.2%.

Monetary Analysis
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile items including food and energy prices, rose 0.3% from the previous month in December. This came above market expectations of a 0.2% increase and followed the timid 0.1% month-on- month rise recorded in November. The print was largely driven by strong price increases for used cars and trucks, housing costs and medical care. These dynamics led core inflation to inch up to 1.8% in December from 1.7% in November. The lack of meaningful inflationary pressures, despite robust economic growth and an exceedingly tight labor market, has been at the forefront of the debate among Federal Reserve officials. In this sense, December’s stronger-than expected core inflation results are likely to reinforce market expectations of an interest rate hike at the Fed’s March monetary policy meeting. However, any additional hikes this year—the Fed’s “dot plot” currently shows three interest rate increases in 2018—will remain largely dependent on the evolution of core prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average 2.2% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel also expects inflation to average 2.2%.

Domestic economic activity appears to have lost some steam in the fourth quarter from the previous one, but remained buoyant nonetheless. Industrial production in November expanded at the slowest pace in yearon-year terms since August 2016, and retail sales contracted in the same month owing in part to higher inflationary pressures. Retail sales were lower despite declining unemployment, which dropped in November to the lowest rate since June 2008. Contrasting slower growth in the domestic economy, growth in the external sector picked up. Exports expanded at a solid rate in both October and November thanks to improved demand from Estonia’s main trading partners. The expansions observed in the first two months of Q4 were spearheaded by robust sales of mineral products as the shale oil industry recovers on the back of higher prices for energy products. Economic growth is set to decelerate in 2018 and 2019 from 2017’s multi-year high but is expected to remain buoyant. Inflows of EU funds will boost growth investment, and changes to the income tax system will boost growth in private consumption. FocusEconomics panelists project that GDP will expand 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel expects GDP growth of 2.9%. HICP inflation moderated from November’s multi-year high of 4.5% to 3.8% in December. HICP inflation is expected to decline as the base effect from higher taxes and the rise in commodiup 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. 

According to Statistics Estonia, growth in industrial production moderated from a revised working-day adjusted 6.0% year-on-year increase in October (previously reported: +6.2% year-on-year) to a 2.7% increase in November. The result marks the seventeenth consecutive monthly expansion and came on the back of an expansion in mining, which more than offset a contraction in energy production. A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month assessment shows that growth in industrial production swung from a 1.6% increase in October to a 1.4% contraction in November. Finally, the annual average variation in industrial production dropped from 8.6% in October to 8.0% in November. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect industrial production to grow 3.9% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel foresees industrial production increasing 2.5% in 2019.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 4.2% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see the economy growing 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, economic growth is expected to grow 2.9%. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in December Consumer prices dropped 0.3% in December compared to the previous month, contrasting the 0.5% month-on-month increase observed in November. According to Statistics Estonia, the monthly reading was driven by a price drop in 7 of the 12 components of the index. A steep decline in the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco was largely behind December’s month-onmonth drop. Inflation moderated from 4.2% in November to 3.4% in December. Annual average inflation increased from 3.3% in November to 3.4% in December. HICP inflation moderated from November’s over five and a half years high of 4.5% to 3.8% in December. Lastly, average HICP inched up from 3.5% in November to 3.6% in December. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast harmonized inflation to average 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel expects harmonized inflation to average 2.8%.

This chart says it all.

"Like all fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies really don’t have intrinsic value. But that doesn’t mean that people won’t treat them as if they do, and sometimes for sustained periods of time. In fact, people have throughout history accepted things that have no value in exchange for things that do. Examples of non-government-issued currencies being used for periods of time include playing cards in the French colonies in the 18th century and limestone discs on the island of Yap centuries ago. What this means in practice is that even if a currency doesn’t have intrinsic value, it could still be used for some period of time." - Steve Strongin, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

The economy continues to gather strength heading into the new calendar year, although it remains fragile, as evidenced by December’s PMI which sank back into pessimistic territory. Other indicators are more positive: In the July–September period growth strengthened, and the unemployment rate declined to a multi-year low. In addition, international reserves were significantly bolstered in 2017 thanks to renewed investor confidence, while the trade deficit narrowed sharply. On 20 December, the IMF’s Executive Board completed the second review under the Extended Fund Facility, unlocking USD 2 billion of additional funding. This will be complemented by USD 1.2 billion recently committed by the World Bank to help support the economy and boost job creation. While praising reform progress, the IMF urged authorities to continue paring back energy subsidies and take steps to increase tax revenues. The fiscal and external positions should be strengthened by the giant Zohr gas field that came onstream in December, moving Egypt closer to energy self-sufficiency. Growth should remain solid going forward. New investment and industrial licensing laws are likely to boost investment, while the external sector will benefit from the weaker pound. However, the elevated debt burden could become a pressing concern if reform momentum slows, and security worries continue to cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to expand 4.4% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in FY 2019. Headline inflation dropped from 30.8% in October to 26.0% in November, on the back of a favorable base effect. At its 28 December meeting, the Central Bank kept the Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 18.75%. Our panelists expect inflation to decline going forward, averaging 16.2% in calendar year 2018 and 12.2% in calendar year 2019.

The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 50.7 in November to 48.3 in December, signaling a worsening in operating conditions after briefly moving into positive territory for the first time in over two years in the prior month. December’s decrease was driven by contractions in output and new orders both at home and abroad. On the positive side, despite subdued activity, the rate of job shedding reached a 28-month low, likely thanks to strong business confidence regarding future growth prospects. Firms’ sentiment was underpinned by increased capital expenditure and expected future economic stability. On the price side, input price inflation eased to a near two-year low, while the rate of output price inflation also dipped.

Brent:
The upward trend in Brent Crude Oil prices that started in mid-2017 remained intact at the outset of 2018, driven by strong fundamentals. Oil prices hit an over three-year high on 11 January. On 12 January, prices traded at USD 70.3 per barrel, which was up 8.3% from the same day in December. The benchmark price for global crude oil markets was 5.4% higher on a year-to-date basis and was up 27.8% from the same day last year. Oil supply remains limited by the successful agreement between OPEC and key non-OPEC countries to reduce oil production. In November, the latest month for which data is available, the conformity level reached 122%, the highest on record. Supply constraints in other oil-producing countries such as Venezuela are also putting a dent in global output. Strong global economic activity is propelling demand for oil, adding upward pressure on prices. On top of economic fundamentals, political developments have also played a role in the recent rally in oil prices. The anti-government protests in Iran that erupted on 28 December and renewed political tensions between Iran and the United States over economic sanctions helped push up oil prices in recent weeks. While oil prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels throughout this year, our analysts believe that they will decline slightly by the end of 2018. As a result, FocusEconomics panelists see prices averaging USD 62.0 per barrel in Q4 2018. For Q4 2019, they expect prices to average USD 64.8 per barrel. The current upward trend in oil prices translated into 8 panelists revising up their estimates for Q4 2018 from the previous month. 16 forecasters kept their projections unchanged, while no panelists cut their forecast. Although our panel largely believes that oil prices will remain at high levels towards the end of this year, on an individual basis they foresee some volatility going forward. The panelist forecast range for Q4 2018 runs from a maximum of USD 87.6 per barrel to a minimum of USD 52.0 per barrel.

WTI:
Oil markets remain in a sweet spot due to a combination of tighter global supply and resilient global economic growth. On 12 January, WTI Crude Oil prices traded at USD 64.2 per barrel, the highest level since December 2014. The print was 12.4% higher than on the same day last month and was up 6.2% on a year-to-date basis. The price was 21.1% higher than on the same day in January of last year. WTI Crude Oil prices continue to benefi t from a tighter global oil market. The successful implementation of OPEC’s oil cut deal and low production in some countries, such as Venezuela, are curbing global oil supply, exerting upward pressure on prices. The agreement by OPEC and key non-OPEC producers to the end of 2018 will help keep global oil supply limited this year. Moreover, resilient global growth is translating into stronger demand for the black oil. U.S. stockpiles declined by 4.9 million barrels in the week ending 5 January, the eighth consecutive weekly drop. Therefore, U.S. inventories reached 420 million barrels, sitting in the middle of the average range for this time of year according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price spread between Brent and WTI Oil prices widened considerably in 2017 due to relatively lower crude oil prices in the United States, and this trend is expected to persist in 2018. WTI Oil prices have been rallying to three-year highs as reduced production and rosy demand buoy the market. That said, analysts are skeptical that oil prices can remain at this level to the end of 2018 as U.S. shale oil producers are ramping up output. For Q4 2018, analysts expect prices to average USD 58.7 per barrel. They see prices increasing to USD 61.4 per barrel in Q4 2019. In light of recent developments, 8 panelists upgraded their projections for Q4 2018 from last month, whereas 2 cut their forecasts. 11 forecasters left their projections unchanged. Despite the strength of the current upward trend in consumer prices, our panelists still foresee WTI Oil prices experiencing some volatility this year. For Q4 2018, the maximum price forecast is USD 78.4 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 48.0 per barrel.
Read more at Focus Economics.

Opioid Overdose Death Rates and All Drug Overdose Death Rates per 100,000 Population

I am not socially conservative, but watching the Grammys last night made me feel wildly prudish. The production seemed unplanned,  a tad scary, bloated and over budget simply for the sake of being over budget. Hillary Clinton's cameo...that was the best part of the 3.5 hour sh*tshow. 

I feel this is representative of the music industry as a whole. While historically  corporations have had a hand in music and distribution (think>Parlophone>EMI>Universal>Warner), it is my not so humble opinion that since the Napster and iTunes days music has become dominated by the mega-corporation, and has totally evaporated into the hands of three giants (Universal, Warner and Sony). All the labels are housed here and the publishers too. All the money making producers and performers want to go with these labels. Artists who are usually gun-shy and timid to sign contracts will give away newborn children to join the (perceived) cult-club of greatness, but all they really want is cash flow. That cash flow is leveraged against future royalties and subject to nixing over the next M&A deal. Artists don’t notice that. They fail to see they are line items in a budget to a degree, hoodwinked by cool executives moving the goods like a short order cook. Since these leveraged payments need to create revenue, the machine of Warner, Universal-Vivendi and Sony mass market and feed the machines of AEG and Live Nation - both of whom own a staggering amount of production rights and performance venues. This is turn creates a quasi-anti-trust type of activity surrounding broadcast events, in regards to the entertainment spoon fed through those channels. It is licensed by one end and sold to another. If you are ever curious about these claims, just look at the stock exchanges Liberty Media trades on. Any corporate competition deal you want will be cleared in Turkish courts (tounge in cheek Turkey, no hard feelings). Regardless, the leveraged payments are recouped, many times over, and replayed at a loss and resold at discounts, repackaged and sold down the line. The artist gets one lump of money, and then perhaps royalties which will secure payments on the back end. It is as if the Grammy Awards stand for nothing more than that...an assurance to the artists on the rosters of the big corporate labels that there is money to blow, money to spend, and special feelings all around. In reality that money is nothing more than a charade. Music is a becoming a corporate beverage and the big labels are cult destinations for authenticity stripped artists how want cash flow in lew of what used to be record sales. Why should I even add the fact that Apple, Google, Amazon and other  streaming and music tech companies are clogging up the distribution channels to such a degree that we don’t even know where we will be in five - ten years time. 

Despite my irritation with the evaporation of music, I was shocked by the lack of the Grammys authenticity. It turns out I was not the only one...Last nights show was the lowest on record in six years. 

From Variety: Viewership of Sunday’s 60th annual Grammy Awards is down significantly from the 2017 telecast, nabbing the smallest audience in the show’s history in the key demo. In addition, the three and a half hour awards show is averaged a 6.9 rating in adults 18-49 and 19.8 million viewers, according to time zone adjusted numbers. Last year’s show drew a 7.8 and 26.1 million, meaning the 2018 Grammys are currently down nearly 12 percent in the demo and 24 percent in total viewers.
The least-watched Grammys were in 1995, where the 11.25 million viewers tied 1975 for the all-time low. Read More Here

Sony / ATV represents 22% of the US music market. They bill themselves as: Sony/ATV is the world's No. 1 music publishing company and prides itself on housing the greatest collection of songs in the world. On behalf of our family of artists and songwriters we make it our mission to ensure their songs live forever.

Having your music (and royalties) live forever is the ultimate goal here. What about the other core sales and backbones of American music? What are they? Well, I would have to say that "bread and butter" mainstay is pop, rock and hip hop. - Stats to follow.

Country music likes to tell you they make up 10% of  music sales, but that is debatable.

Country has a futile stronghold unless mixed with pop for crossover products. There is however no doubt to the music sales power of country music stars. These acts often ’crossover’ and become the beacon of the industry. Famous crossover country stars include Garth Brooks - who has sold over 134M records and Alan Jackson who has sold over 80M records. On the flip side, folly types who have tried to jump on the country band wagon like Jimmy Buffet (a folk hybrid) has only sold 20M records. Let's jump over to the never ending hat wearing, former CMA darling Zac Brown Band...Just over 7M. Taylor Swift has sold over 30M records. 

Record sales are US only.

From this chart (using 2012-2016 stats) we are able to see just what is being paid to who. All the conference are represented here, but Alabama (SEC) leads the chart with Nick Saban's illustrious, GOAT salary level.  The trend-line is in light blue, so the pattern seems to be averaging out to $5M.

Sources from 2015:

1) http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/
2) https://www.si.com/college-football/2015/10/08/highest-paid-college-football-coaches-salaries-list-nick-saban-jim-harbaugh

The game last night was full of highlights. One must admit though that Georgia in the second half performed at an incredible pace. They bewildered the Sooners. The Sooners also blew one heck of a lead. This is what CFB is all about.

I noticed during a Rose Bowl advertisement last night that UGA claimed it was the birth place of American public education. To be honest and clear, UGA is the one of the first state charted universities (1785) along with UNC (1789). However UGA was inactive until  1801 and UNC mentioned the university in their states constitution in 1776, but it was not officially chartered until 1789. Clearly a bit of conflict between UGA and UNC. To compound matters William and Mary - which kicked off with a royal charter in 1693 - should be considered the oldest public state institution in America, without argument.  

Higher Education Institutions

Harvard University 

Established: 1636

The College of William and Mary

Established: 1693

Yale University

Established: 1701

University of Pennsylvania

Established: 1740 

Moravian College

Established: 1742

University of Delaware

Established:1743

Princeton University

Established: 1746

Washington and Lee University

Established: 1749

UGA was chartered in 1785 by the state of Georgia, making it the first state-chartered public university in the United States. But as you can see from the list above that UGA is not that old from comparison. The University began admitting students in 1801. Until 1801 little if anything happened. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill was charted on December 11, 1789 and was the first public university in the country to admit students in 1795. The first class graduated in 1798, making it the first public university to graduate students in the 18th century. The school was also part of the state’s 1776 Constitution outlining its creation. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill claims the title of oldest public university due to the state’s constitution of 1776 and the first class to graduate in the country from a public university. These are both very strong claims.

The College of William & Mary is in Williamsburg, Virginia, and was founded by royal charter in 1693, making it one of the oldest colleges, public or private, in the United States. The college severed ties with Great Britain after the Revolutionary War, but remained private until it closed after the Civil War due to financial troubles. It re-opened in 1888 and accepted funding from the state of Virginia to become public in 1906. 

Sources: 

(1) https://blog.allentate.com/2012/05/08/who-has-the-oldest-public-university-in-the-united-states/

(2) https://www.topuniversities.com/blog/10-oldest-universities-us

(3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_university_in_the_United_States

"Wall Street closed at record highs amid sustained optimism about the likelihood of lower corporate tax rates as the Republican tax bill moved closer to passage"

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 140.46 points, or 0.57 percent, to 24,792.2, the S&P 500 .SPXgained 14.35 points, or 0.54 percent, to 2,690.16 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 58.18 points, or 0.84 percent, to 6,994.76.
2. The three indexes set record closing highs, as did the small-cap Russell 2000 index , up 1.21 percent to end at 1,548.93. - Reuters

Fintech and cryptocurrencies are spurring other valuation bubbles perhaps. Perhaps it has been the tremendous recovery period the US demanded. The DOW, at its systematic core, is compiled of outstanding enterprises - Intel, Apple and Goldman were leaders today. It will be more prudent to discuss today's price of the Dow in three months time. Nasdaq lead with Akamai (7.91%) and Alcoa (1.96%), and the S&P gained despite heavy the losses from CSX last week. CSX CEO Hunter Harrison stepped down - after many rumors about his health throughout the summer, when CSX was backing up trains in Central Appalachia.  

CPI - Consumer Price Index - 12 Month
Energy prices are up 16.4% which is driving the price increase in energy.

From the BLS: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – NOVEMBER 2017 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent. The energy index rose 3.9 percent and accounted for about three-fourths of the all items increase. The gasoline index increased 7.3 percent, and the other energy component indexes also rose. The food index was unchanged in November, with the index for food at home declining slightly. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November. The shelter index continued to rise, and the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles also increased. The indexes for apparel, airline fares, and household furnishings and operations all declined in November. The all items index rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending November. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.7 percent, a slight decline from the 1.8-percent increase for the period ending October. The energy index rose 9.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.4 percent.

Kuwait ? Kuwait is quite the powerhouse now.  Investment has been pouring into the gulf country at a rapid pace. From Bloomberg - Kuwait’s graduation to emerging-markets classification by index compiler FTSE Russell could prompt inflows of as much as $700 million from investors, according to the money manager run by the nation’s largest lender.

MSCI Kuwait Index Constituents:

NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT - Financials 

KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE - Financials 

MOBILE TELECOM CO - Telecom Srvcs 

AGILITY - Industrials 

MABANEE CO SAKC - Real Estate 

BOUBYAN BANK - Financials 

BURGAN BANK - Financials 

KUWAIT PROJECTS CO HLDGS - Financials

From Focus Economics: Kuwait’s economy, which has suffered from weaker oil production this year, faces political instability as the year draws to a close. On 30 October, the prime minister and his entire cabinet resigned. Re-appointed by the emir, the prime minister is now in the process of forming a new cabinet. On 15 November, following a staff visit, the IMF highlighted that the country’s fiscal position remains vulnerable and dependent on transfers from its financial reserves. However, it also noted the non-oil sector stands to improve this year, moderating the expected economic contraction due to a weaker oil sector. On 21 November, Iraq agreed to resume compensating Kuwait for costs related to the 1990–1991 Gulf War, which should provide a slight fiscal dividend over the coming years.


A pick-up in the oil sector on higher oil prices should benefit the economy next year, which will also be boosted by resilient private consumption. Our panel expects GDP to increase 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see GDP growth of 3.2%.
Inflation rose from a 13-year low of 0.5% in September to 1.4% in October as a result of a positive base effect. Panelists expect inflation to average 3.0% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019.

Official name: State of Kuwait
Capital: Kuwait City (0.6m)
Other cities: As Salimiyah (0.15m)
Sabah as Salim (0.14m)
Area (km2): 17,818
Population (million, 2016 est.): 4.2
Population density (per km2, 2016): 237
Population growth rate (%, 2016 est.): 2.8
Life expectancy (years, 2016 est.): 78.0
Illiteracy rate (%, 2015): 3.7
Language: Arabic
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT+3