Roaring ahead to a seven year high...The economy steamed ahead in Q3, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea. Growth came in at 3.6% compared to the same quarter last year, higher than the 2.7% growth recorded for Q2. A jump in exports, coupled with an increase in government spending, propelled the economy in the third quarter. Kicking off Q4, consumer and business confidence were strong in October and November, respectively, and the underlying health of export growth was also strong in October. On 31 October, Korea and China agreed to improve diplomatic relations, which could lead to a recovery in tourism exports next year since they have suffered from the deterioration in relations between the two countries following the deployment of the THAAD missile system in Korea earlier this year. On 7 November, during his visit to Korea, U.S. President Trump called to push ahead with amendment negotiations for the U.S.-Korea free-trade agreement. President Trump’s visit was part of a wider tour of East Asia, in which he pushed for greater regional unity regarding North Korea. The 2018 budget, which includes an increase in spending, and improved diplomatic relations with China should buoy economic growth next year. However, measures to cool the housing market could weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.8% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is forecast to grow 2.7%.  Inflation dropped from 2.1% in September to 1.8% in October. Our panelists project that inflation will average 2.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month´s forecast. In 2019, the panel expects inflation to average 2.0% again. Read more at Focus Economics.

We are retro-fitting and editing sporting charts for Chaganomics. Stay tuned!

Mainland China Outlook:

The economy continues to defy signs of an abrupt slowdown on the back of resilient household consumption. GDP expanded 6.8% annually in Q3, just a notch below H1’s 6.9% increase and comfortably in line to achieve this year’s 6.5% growth target. The slight deceleration reflected poor investment dynamics partially due to stricter environmental regulations. Recent data for October suggests the economy is losing some momentum in Q4, with the manufacturing PMI receding, trade data weakening and the housing market showing signs of fatigue. At the closing of the National Congress of the Communist Party on 24 October, President Xi Jinping’s thought was enshrined into the party’s guiding principles. This is the first time since Mao Zedong that a living party leader has been incorporated into the party’s constitution, reflecting the amount of power Xi has amassed since he took over as General Secretary in 2012. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump softened his tone in his recent visit to China, shifting the blame for trade imbalances from China to past U.S. administrations. China will continue with its managed deceleration as authorities seek to achieve a more sustainable growth trajectory, while implementing economic reforms. Fiscal policy will remain accommodative next year, while the government will likely tighten financial conditions. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that the economy will grow 6.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the economy is expected to grow 6.1%. In October, inflation rose to 1.9% from 1.6% in September. Inflationary pressures are expected to resurface slightly going forward due to higher commodity prices. Our panel forecasts that inflation will average 2.2% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019.

Hong Kong Outlook:

The economy cooled in Q3, but nevertheless defied expectations of a sharper moderation as exports and household spending continued growing robustly. In Q3, the external sector benefited from the broad based global upturn as exports of both goods and services lurched ahead—the latter due to greater cargo flows and the recovery in inbound tourism. Domestically, private consumption surged once again on full employment and solid real income growth, corroborated by this year’s turnaround in retail sales through September. Fixed investment, on the other hand, contracted as machinery and equipment acquisitions slumped, although building and construction appeared unaffected by the recent cool-off in the property market. Furthermore, October’s weaker PMI reading—marred by stagnant output and declining orders from mainland China—suggests that a rebound in investment may not be forthcoming before year-end, in line with expectations of a broader slowdown in Q4. An economic downshift appears to be underway after an outsized performance in H1, although the strength of the global economy has so far moderated the deceleration. That said, waning demand from mainland China is expected to restrain growth next year. Despite full employment and soaring asset values, household spending is expected to moderate in the medium term and weigh on domestic demand. Our analysts expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and then tick up to 2.6% in 2019. Inflation fell markedly to 1.4% in September (August: 1.9%) on a substantial public housing base effect. If the Fed continues raising interest rates in the short term, a sudden correction in asset values remains a distinct possibility. Our panelists expect inflation to average 2.3% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019.

Taiwan Outlook:

The economy roared through the third quarter on the back of a stellar performance in the external sector. Strong global economic growth and a cyclical upswing in electronics exports supported shipments overseas throughout the quarter, with the external sector recording its largest contribution to growth in over five years. Conversely, the domestic sector dragged on growth as gross capital formation growth plunged and households failed to respond to stronger real wages and a buoyant equity market. Looking to Q4, leading data points to another solid outturn. Consumer sentiment hit a fresh two-year high in October because of a healthy labor market, while business confidence logged its best result since late 2015, reflecting positive underlying trends in the external and manufacturing sectors. • The government’s loosened fiscal stance, which includes the implementation of the country’s Forward-Looking Infrastructure Plan and higher public-sector wages, is expected to shore up fixed investment and government consumption next year. Conversely, exports are expected to turn slightly less supportive of GDP growth due to a strong base effect and maturing economic cycles across several advanced economies. FocusEconomics panelists forecast growth of 2.3% next year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. GDP growth is seen at 2.2% in 2019. In annual terms, consumer prices were down 0.3% in October, which contrasted the 0.5% increase recorded in the previous month. Price pressures have weakened severely in recent months due to a base effect for fresh fruit and vegetable prices, but a pick-up in core inflation in October suggests the dip in the headline reading could prove temporary. Our panel expects inflation to average 1.2% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019.

More available at FocusEconomics

Article Reposted From Nov. 2nd, 2017- Bitcoin has finally found its proper listing place: The futures market. Most investors and consumers will never touch a futures contract or a derivative. A derivative is a financial instrument and the most common form of a derivative is a futures contract. They get very complex at times, but for the most part many are just board listed futures contracts like pork bellies and bushels of corn and bars of aluminum (see more on futures and how they work at Investopedia). In response to this — and heavy lobbying efforts and financial sponsorship — CME has launched a product called the BRR — Bitcoin Reference Rate. This doesn’t make it more readily available or mainstream, but it does solidify the fact that it exists and there is financial interest surrounding it. Bitcoin is no longer a fleeting and useless fad. For the CME — Chicago Mercantile Exchange to list a bitcoin product the investing public has the necessary volume and interest to trade.

CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) and CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) — both are “a standardized reference rate and spot price index with independent oversight are accelerating the professionalization of bitcoin trading and further establishing digital assets as a new asset class” — BRR and BRTI launched November 14, 2016 globally, and the products will launch on the CME by the end of the year.

Dupont (from the American family) said it best in 1768: there must be a necessary relation between the value of foodstuffs [sic] in the price of a working day, which must secure to the worker the means necessary to satisfy his needs. Oddly enough this is happening in bitcoin. You can see common themes in the charts below. While the “mining” costs rise — essentially computer power and electricity, the hash rates are spiking, miner revenue is spiking. Those mining see this as a simple way to coordinate production and profits and speculators are rushing in. Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan may have been mistaken when he said only criminals and drug dealers use the currency. There is natural curiosity in money and wealth and the internet has given the entire world the ability to be a free merchant, speculator and gambler.

South Africa's economy exited technical recession in Q2 and recent data provides reason for cautious optimism. The recent recovery in agricultural output carried into in Q3, and consumer confidence is increasing on the back of moderating inflation and higher real wage growth. Adding to the good news, manufacturing output expanded in August for the first time this year. That said, this positive data, should be taken with caution. Endless political bickering constitutes is a real issue. It is the biggest stumbling block to faster GDP growth, and it continues to weigh on business confidence and stave off future investment. In September, the manufacturing PMI dipped further into contractionary territory, and business sentiment remained abysmally low despite improving from the over 30-year low recorded in August. Furthermore, political noise is set to remain elevated in the foreseeable future as the country gears up for the ANC Conference in December, when a new presidential candidate for next year’s election will be chosen. Focus Economics

Bitcoin has finally found its proper listing place: The futures market. Most investors and consumers will never touch a futures contract or a derivative. A derivative is a financial instrument and the most common form of a derivative is a futures contract. They get very complex at times, but for the most part many are just board listed futures contracts like pork bellies and bushels of corn and bars of aluminum (see more on futures and how they work at Investopedia).

In response to this — and heavy lobbying efforts and financial sponsorship — CME has launched a product called the BRR — Bitcoin Reference Rate. This doesn’t make it more readily available or mainstream, but it does solidify the fact that it exists and there is financial interest surrounding it. Bitcoin is no longer a fleeting and useless fad. For the CME — Chicago Mercantile Exchange to list a bitcoin product the investing public has the necessary volume and interest to trade CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) and CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) — both are “a standardized reference rate and spot price index with independent oversight are accelerating the professionalization of bitcoin trading and further establishing digital assets as a new asset class” — BRR and BRTI launched November 14, 2016 globally, and the products will launch on the CME by the end of the year.

Dupont (from the American family) said it best in 1768: there must be a necessary relation between the value of foodstuffs [sic] in the price of a working day, which must secure to the worker the means necessary to satisfy his needs. Oddly enough this is happening in bitcoin. You can see common themes in the charts below. While the “mining” costs rise — essentially computer power and electricity, the hash rates are spiking, miner revenue is spiking. Those mining see this as a simple way to coordinate production and profits and speculators are rushing in. Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan may have been mistaken when he said only criminals and drug dealers use the currency. There is natural curiosity in money and wealth and the internet has given the entire world the ability to be a free merchant, speculator and gambler.

Article first appeared at: @ChadHaganEcon

The global economy is continuing to perform strongly, with growth stabilizing at levels last seen more than two years ago in Q3. According to estimates by FocusEconomics, the global economy expanded 3.2% annually in Q3, matching the result in Q2. Q3’s reading mostly reflected improving economic dynamics in emerging-market economies such as Brazil and Russia, while developed nations continued expanding healthily on the back of rising real wages due to low inflation and largely accommodative monetary policies. While the global economy appears to be in a sweet spot, political developments are gradually taking center stage, threatening to undermine the current economic momentum. The fourth round of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations ended on 17 October without a conclusive result. Canada and Mexico rejected proposals from the U.S. of increasing protectionism. Despite their opposition to U.S. demands, Canada and Mexico did not walk away, and a fifth round of talks will start in mid-November. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that the U.S. will withdraw from the 23-year old deal if the countries cannot strike a deal to reshape it. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the trade deal will likely imply an increase in trade barriers in the continent, which would certainly have negative spillovers for the global economy. In Europe, while negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom did not break down in recent weeks, they have been shunted into the sidelines. Instead of focusing on their future trade agreements, both parties are getting stuck on other issues, such as the rights of EU citizens in Britain and the future of the Northern Irish border. All sides expect to reach an agreement before the 14–15 December Europe - From FocusEconomics

an Council meeting, in order to move to the next round of the negotiations. A further delay in the negotiations will increase uncertainty about the Brexit deal, threatening to derail Europe’s ongoing growth momentum. In Asia, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in Beijing on 18–24 October and the 22 October general elections in Japan allowed the leaders of China and Japan, respectively, to consolidate power. In China, Xi Jinping was reappointed as General Secretary of the CPC; he was also able to place more loyalists into the party’s top political bodies. As a result, Xi has amassed an amount of power unprecedented in China’s recent history, allowing him to comfortably implement his vision for the country: a more dominant role for China in the global arena and healthier economic growth based on consumption and services. More importantly, he did not signal any candidate to replace him once his second term expires in 2022, suggesting that he could opt for an unusual third mandate. In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory will allow him to continue with his set of policies aimed at pulling the country out from years of sticky deflationary pressures and ensuring a more sustainable long-term growth. Moreover, the voters’ strong mandate paves the way for Abe to rewrite the country’s pacifist constitution and embolden Japan’s military capabilities, threatening to increase political instability in the region. -

From the Atlanta Fed: The composite index measures the region's manufacturing sector based on key sector indicators; a reading below 50 indicates manufacturing is contracting, while over 50 means the industry is expanding.

On 26 October, President of Catalonia Carles Puigdemont put the decision of independence in the hands of the region's parliament. The move almost guarantees that the Spansh Senate decides on 27 October to approve measures that will allow Spain to take complete control over the semi-autonomous region's government, as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative party hold a majority. How this all affects the economy of both the region and the country as a whole is uncertain, however, cracks have begun to show over the last few months as the Spain-Catalonia situation has escalated.

It has been a tense few months in the lead up to and in the aftermath of Catalonia’s independence referendum that was held on 1 October. Both pro-independence separatist groups and pro-unity groups have taken to the streets of Barcelona on occasion to peacefully protest while both the Catalan and Spanish governments have volleyed shots back and forth at one another. Although the referendum was illegal according to the Spanish constitution, Catalonia went ahead with the vote nonetheless. With no legal guarantees and many Catalans against the vote staying away, 90% voted ‘yes’ albeit with only a 40% voter turnout. A week later, in a rather confusing speech before Catalan parliament, President Puigdemont declared that they had “brought democracy back to Europe” and claimed that the semi-autonomous region had won its right to independence, stopping short of an all-out declaration. Spanish authorities demanded that he clarify his position after the speech, however, with no answer coming from the Catalan president, the Spanish government triggered Article 155 for the first time since the constitution was ratified in 1978. Still conditional on approval from the Senate, the unprecedented move will enable the central government to seize powers from the Catalan administration and bring the semi-autonomous region under Madrid’s direct control. In response, on 26 October Puigdemont was expected to call a snap regional election set for 20 December. However, he unexpectedly decided not to call for elections and instead lobbed the decision over the fence to the Catalan parliament stating that the Spanish government’s actions would not allow him to call for elections now. Despite the turbulent political scene in Spain, financial markets have been fairly calm. Nonetheless, many large corporations based in Barcelona, the region’s capital, have either already moved headquarters or have stated they will do so if the situation escalates further as many citizens move their money to banks outside the region. Tourism is also likely to be hurt, one of the region’s most important revenue streams. Now it’s a waiting game to find out how the Spanish government responds on 27 October, however, it is expected that the Spanish Senate will approve Article 155 to seize power from Catalonia. Some have also speculated that the Catalan parliament may also move to vote on a declaration of independence on the same day. While we wait to see how it plays out, we asked 7 economic experts from the likes of Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, BMI Research and more for their views on how the situation could unfold and affect the economies of the region and the country as a whole. More at FocusEconomics.

OTTAWA – Behind the scenes Canadian officials are "extremely worried" about where the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations are headed, and it’s time to be worried, says Rona Ambrose, a member of Canada’s NAFTA Advisory Council. - Link

Canada Is The United States' Largest Export Partner - Chad Hagan @ HuffPost 

The Securities Law Blog: Rio Tinto, Former Top Executives Charged With Frau...: The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged mining company Rio Tinto and two former top executives with fraud for inflating the val...

"Mostly directed at Taiwan, but also applicable to Hong Kong, Xi became visibly animated and received the longest applause for his tough talk on regions with designs to declare formal independence. “We will not tolerate anyone, using any means, at any time to separate one inch of land from China,” he said. “Blood is thicker than water.” Distrust of China has been growing in both Taiwan and Hong Kong, and Xi announced propaganda pushes for the regions in order to “strengthen the ranks of patriot who love our country”. Similar overbearing attempts in the past have had little success in swaying the younger generation."