Khamenei calls for security cooperation with China, says U.S. not to be trusted

RTRS 23-JAN-2016 11:46:48 AM DUBAI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Saturday for closer economic and security ties with China, saying both countries could be reliable partners, especially in energy. "Iran is the most reliable country in the region for energy since its energy policies will never be affected by foreigners," Khamenei was quoted as saying by his official website at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Khamenei said the United States was "not honest" in the fight against terrorism in the region, and asked for more cooperation between Iran and China.

American Apparel rejects takeover bid - source - RTRS

14-JAN-2016 11:59:16 PM 

By Aurindom Mukherjee Jan 14 (Reuters) - Bankrupt teen apparel retailer American Apparel Inc's APPCQ.PK board has rejected the latest takeover offer involving the company's controversial founder, Dov Charney, a source told Reuters. Earlier this week, the Los Angeles-based company received a $300 million bid from a group of investors who are backing the return of Dov Charney.
Hagan Capital Group and Silver Creek Capital Partners said their proposal included $90 million of new equity and a $40 million term loan, and backs a business plan from Charney, who was fired as chief executive in December 2014. American Apparel is open to a revised offer from the funds, the source said. (http://bloom.bg/1lbRGeX) Bloomberg reported the news first on Thursday.

Chad Hagan from the Hagan Capital Group said they are confident that American Apparel will accept their "superior business model that centers on long term value, ethical management and preserving American manufacturing jobs"

Silver Creek Capital Partners were not immediately available for comment. Representatives of Dov Charney declined to comment. American Apparel, which has not been profitable since 2009, filed for bankruptcy in October, joining a list other teen-focused retailers including Wet Seal and Body Central Corp that have struggled with changing tastes. Charney founded American Apparel in 1989, but was fired in December for allegedly misusing company funds and failing to stop a subordinate from defaming former employees. He has denied the allegations. 

Remarks upon certain aspects of the theory of costs
by LIONEL ROBBINS
A lecture delivered before the Nationalökonomischen Gesellschaft, Vienna, 7 April 1933. First published in the Economic Journal (March 1934).

The theory of costs is not one of those parts of economic analysis which can properly be said to have been unduly neglected. It has always occupied a more or less central position, and in recent years it has been the subject of a quite formidable body of new work. There is, indeed, no part of his subject about which the contemporary economist may legitimately feel more gratified, either as regards the quality of the work which has been done or as regards the temper in which it has been undertaken. Yet, in spite of this, the present state of affairs in this field is not altogether satisfactory. The various problems involved have been tackled by different sets of people; and the conclusions which have been reached in one part of the field have sometimes a rather disquieting appearance of incompatibility with conclusions which have been reached elsewhere. No doubt some of this apparent incompatibility is real. It is not to be expected that here—any more than elsewhere—economists should have reached finality. But some of it is probably illusory; and if in discussing these matters we were to state more decisively the problems which we are attempting to solve, and the assumptions on which we proceed, it seems likely that not only should we be able to clear up our outstanding real points of difference more quickly, but that, in the course of doing so, we should also discover that many of them depended essentially upon subtle differences of object and assumption, hitherto insufficiently stated. At any rate, it is in the belief that this would be so that these very tentative remarks are put forward.

http://www.econlib.org/library/NPDBooks/Thirlby/bcthLS2.html

The investor backing Dov Charney's American Apparel bid tells @BettyWLiu why https://t.co/PuimJReN0v pic.twitter.com/wbN37B3qXA

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) January 12, 2016

(AP) — An investor group wants to buy American Apparel for about $300 million and bring back the clothing chain’s founder and former CEO Dov Charney. Charney was fired from American Apparel in 2014 following allegations that he had violated the company’s sexual harassment policy. Charney denied those charges. The investors, Hagan Capital Group and Silver Creek Capital Partners, said Monday that they have submitted a bid. American Apparel said in a statement Monday that it evaluates all bids and that it is focusing on emerging from bankruptcy protection. The Los Angeles company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in October. Most Read Stories Seahawks Game Center promoSeahawks Game Center: Complete postgame playoff coverage after Seattle Seahawks edge Minnesota Vikings in wild-card showdown nullListen: Two very different radio calls of Vikings kicker Blair Walsh's missed field goal against Seahawks (Rich Boudet / The Seattle Times)The sports world reacts to Seahawks' wild win over Minnesota Vikings Marshawn Lynch’s stunning decision not to play Sunday raises more questions about his future with Seahawks Seahawks 10, Vikings 9: What the national media are saying about Seattle's close call, chances vs. Cam Newton, Panthers Unlimited Digital Access. $1 for 4 weeks. Hagan Capital Group and Silver Creek Capital Partners said Charney has a business plan that would improve American Apparel, which has faltered since he left. American Apparel, which Charney founded in 1998, sells its clothing in 218 stores around the world.

"American Apparel is a proven viable business model that needs to be scaled from a sales point of view and should not be in bankruptcy. If the Company is not turned around it will be a pointless loss of American manufacturing jobs. We strongly urge the creditors to evaluate and accept our offer," stated Chad Hagan, Managing Partner of Hagan Capital Group.

1e5-85cd-5ad59bc19432-20160111-story.html

https://amers2.apps.cp.thomsonreuters.com/web/pdfReuters/htmlnews/8knews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:2016-01-11:MKW_20020408:1238177

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-11/charney-backers-manage-more-than-2-billion-feel-he-was-wronged

Seemingly moments after Xi made a visit... From Reuters China claims most of the South China Sea and on Oct. 9 its Foreign Ministry warned that Beijing would "never allow any country to violate China's territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation and overflight." The United States argues that under international law, building up artificial islands on previously submerged reefs does not entitle a country to claim a territorial limit and that it is vital to maintain freedom of navigation in a sea through which more than $5 trillion of world trade passes every year.

By Simon Jessop and Sinead Cruise

LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. asset manager Principal Global Investors is to shut London-based hedge fund investment firm Liongate Capital Management after fee-conscious investors withdrew too much money from its funds.

While the hedge fund industry has hit $3 trillion on demand for alternative bets in a low-return world, investors are keen to pay less to make those bets, hitting funds that charge an extra fee for selecting which hedge funds to invest in.

"The headwinds in the hedge fund of funds industry -- fees on fees, declining assets, which I think is an industry phenomenon -- in spite of decent performance, had got us to the point where it was better, on scale grounds, to return cash to investors," said Principal Chief Executive Jim McCaughan.

Liongate, which ran $1.4 billion at the time Principal took a majority stake in 2013, had less than $500 million in assets under management, a spokesman for Principal said, after suffering "significant pressure".

Managing director Jeff Holland left the firm in July, nearly 13 years after helping found the business.

And the lawsuits start piling up...

Attorneys at Keller Rohrback L.L.P. have filed a request for a temporary restraining order against Volkswagen Group of America, Inc., and related entities to prevent the auto maker from sending misleading communications to drivers of certain Volkswagen and Audi diesel vehicles.

Complaints of US employers slamming the breaks on hiring, in addition to global woes, have placed the fed on hold.  Forecasts call for rates action to take place in March 2016.

However, launch the IPOs. Let us not forget that corporates hit the skids at alarming rates. New blood in the system is mandatory.

Parting words...emissions. Set to explode right? The VW scandal is about to uncover a history (since the 1970's) of VW going face-to-face with the EPA. Just wait., Carbon finance is the new darling once again.
----

NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The global market volatility of the past month that sent U.S. stocks to their worst quarter in four years shows no signs of letting up just because the calendar turned to October.

Investors say they are bracing for another leg down in the S&P 500 stock index despite its positive showing last week by increasing cash and other defensive positions in their portfolios.

"Do I think we go into a bear market? No. Can we inch toward it? Absolutely," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

With the backdrop of slowing jobs growth in the U.S. and the collapse of global commodity prices, third quarter corporate results will take on a heightened significance when companies begin reporting them next week, analysts said. Alcoa Inc, traditionally the first company to report its results, is scheduled to announce its third quarter earnings after the market closes on Oct. 8.

Overall, corporate earnings are expected to fall by 4.1 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. That figure is skewed, however, by an expected 65 percent fall in energy sector results.

"The single most determinant variable is going to be earnings at this point," said Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Dallas-based Westwood Holdings Group. He has been raising his cash levels, and at the same moving more of his portfolio into healthcare and technology companies that show signs of growth.

"The market continues to narrow and narrow. We're not about to fall into a bear market, but I'm starting to think the raging bull market is over," he said.

A weaker than expected U.S. employment report for September on Friday diminished inflation expectations, and the prospects for a dim U.S. corporate earnings season, are all factors fanning worries that the economic recovery could be derailed. (Full Story)

Concerns about the global economy has fueled a series of deep declines and snap-back rallies over the last month, as investors look for surer footing. The S&P index had fallen more than 10 percent from the record high it reached May 20, and after starting with a selloff on Friday, closed up 1.42 percent, still down 8.6 percent from its recent high.

Investors pulled $22 billion out of U.S. equity funds in the third quarter, while putting a record $17 billion into U.S. Treasury funds, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Those investors have had few places to hide. Of the 21 major financial asset benchmarks tracked by Reuters, only two - the U.S. dollar and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds - have posted positive returns so far this year, leaving investors with the worst financial market returns since the financial crisis in
2008.


The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell below 2.0 percent on Friday for the first time since late August on concerns about growth in the U.S. economy.

"There are some wicked winds swirling around from a macro perspective and you can't afford to be complacent," said Alan Gayle, head of asset allocation at Atlanta-based RidgeWorth Investments, who said he has been raising the cash levels in his portfolios until the market stabilizes. (Full Story)

The Federal Reserve's decision in September to delay raising interest rates from financial crisis-era levels is exacerbating the uncertainty behind the market's large swings, said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"The market wants to see the economic conditions normalize. It's starting to think that something is broken here and it makes them uncomfortable," he said.

Fedwatchers suggest Friday's lackluster jobs report would cause the Fed to further delay raising interest rates until 2016, prolonging market volatility into next year. (Full Story)

To be sure, some investors say that heightened volatility is welcome.

"This can create wonderful opportunities, and we're actively looking to take advantage of egregious pricing," said Connor Browne, managing director of equities at fund manager Thornburg Investment Management.
By David Randall, Reuters

China Economic Blight Endure...


China Economic Blight Endures adding worse to an already war torn economy and global newsline.
Just one hour ago China's PMI index was released and while it was better than expected, the increase showed more signs of deterioration. Contraction is continuing on a monthly basis.

From Reuters Eikon:

The government is due to release third-quarter GDP data on Oct 19 and many economists expect growth to dip below 7 percent, which would be the weakest since the global financial crisis.

Some China watchers believe current growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggest.

A summer stock market crash and China's surprise currency devaluation in August have raised fears of shocks to the economy which could see it slowing more sharply than earlier expected, jeopardising the fragile global recovery.

Since the devaluation, top Chinese officials have repeatedly tried to reassure nervous global investors that they are in control of the economy and denied that it is at risk of a hard landing.

It was inside the emissions control. A simple engine emissions control software that changed and deceived testing during emissions checks. Back on the open road emissions were blowing out at alarming levels. Emissions were in fact up to 40x higher than anticipated. 

However, there must be a massive paper trail. A cheating engine management software piece was developed. It was created to dodge emissions and make the auto everything it was marketed to not be. This is a massive scandal. 

Many consumers - if not every singe one - will be left with a financial burden. 

This is an ideal test case, perhaps. Criminal or civil liability for the corporation and individuals who were behind this is inevitable. But this is rumoured to be the standard in Europe? Sanctions are allowed in the US but not in Europe. What standards will be enforced and will this change the European and US market? 

The stock has also tanked, so that opens the door to shareholder lawsuits. 

Liability is being estimated at $18B or more. I agree with estimates that this scandal will topple BP's gulf disaster, and think liability will be over $50 billion. 

Corporate criminal liability? Go-go carbon finance.

"...market-based inflation expectations are poor predictors of future inflation. This suggests that these measures contain little forward-looking information about future inflation...

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/september/market-based-inflation-forecasting-and-alternative-methods/

85% OF BRITISH POWER CAN BE VIA RENEWABLES BY 2030, SAYS GREENPEACETHEGRD

9/21/15 07:24

Britain can produce 85% of its power via renewable energy by 2030 provided it undergoes significant changes in energy production and use, according to a new study by Greenpeace.

The study attempts to counter the argument that only fossil fuels and nuclear power can keep the lights on for the next few decades. It foresees wind leaping from today's level of 13 gigawatts (GW) of wind farms in operation – enough to power around 10 million homes – to a level of 77GW in 2030, with solar rising from just more than 5GW to 28GW.

However, the renewables drive would need to be accompanied by a 60% reduction in demand for domestic heating through a home insulation programme and other initiatives, according to the report by energy system analysts, Demand Energy Equality.

"For a long time the government and the fossil fuel industry have peddled the argument that renewables can't keep the lights on if the wind's not blowing. This hasn't been based on evidence, but out of date instincts seemingly from staring out the window to see how windy it is," said Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace .

"For the first time, we have the evidence showing it is possible to keep the power system working and decarbonise the electricity system. We need to go for renewable energy with the help of new smart technology and reducing demand for power too.

"It is hugely ambitious but definitely doable, and it will take the same kind of enthusiasm and financial support from government, normally the sole preserve of the nuclear and fossil fuel industries."

The plan, which would require a major change in government policies, envisages fossil fuels playing a role via combined gas-fired heat and power projects. Many homes and buildings would also need to move away from gas-fired boilers to their own ground source heat pumps or an electricity source.

The report is published in the run up to the UN-sponsored climate change talks in Paris and at a time when the Conservative government has axed a series of green subsidy schemes to wind and solar on the grounds of cost.

The feasability of decarbonising the UK's power generation system, which was dependent for a long time on carbon-heavy coal, has long been argued over. Few believe that carbon dioxide can be eliminated entirely from energy production, or at least in the short term.

In 2014, around 30% of UK electricity was generated by coal-fired power plants, 30% by gas, 19% by nuclear and around the same amount by renewables, according to the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

The new analysis shows a low-carbon energy sector is possible but only if our relationship with energy changes at the national, household and personal level.

There would have to be a huge increase in building efficiency and in the use of smart meters, so that demand could be dialled down when needed.

The cost of the transformation programme is not spelled out, but the Greenpeace report notes that a similar study done in 2011 by Poyry consultants for the parliamentary climate change committee produced a price tag of between £126bn and £227bn to achieve 65% renewable penetration by 2030.

Wind would play the greatest role in energy production in the new low carbon world envisaged by Greenpeace. The 55GW of offshore wind and 22GW of onshore wind would require a significant increase in investment.

The wind lobby group RenewableUK said there was no reason why more wind farms should not be built. "There is no technical or logistical barrier to the UK installing up to 55GW by 2030, but it needs political will – a supportive policy framework from government, especially sufficient financial support allocated in the offshore wind pot," said a spokesman.

David Infield, a professor of electrical engineering at University of Strathclyde, who had read the Greenpeace report, said it was a serious document that deserved attention.

"This is a useful report dealing with the complex issue of absorbing high penetrations of renewable power generation in line with achieving challenging reductions in carbon emissions," he said.

The big difference is that the energy department's forecasts are based on what it believes is feasible under certain circumstances by 2050, rather than the 2030 time period used by Greenpeace. This makes a huge difference in mobilising capital and undertaking the work necessary.

The Greenpeace study has ruled out nuclear because of the financial and environmental cost of building new plants, such as Hinkley Point C, and dealing with the legacy of their waste. Equally, carbon capture technology – where carbon dioxide is stored underground as soon as it is emitted – has been excluded as it is deemed an unproven method.

Copyright (c) 2015 theguardian.com

© Thomson Reuters 2015. All rights reserved.

Is this too fantastic or what (from Right Wing News)?

An influx of 30-35 million people will bust EU nations at the seams! - CH

----

by John Binder

20-Sep-2015 15:29:44

Copyright (c) 2015 Right Wing News

English

343 words

Sep 20, 2015

The Syrian refugee crisis is already a disaster that has been caused by a disaster in the Middle East.

However, this is nothing compared to what the world will eventually see, according to Hungary officials who say the crisis is about to get much, much worse.

But according to Hungary's minister for foreign affairs and trade Peter Szijjártó, it's going to get much, much worse.

As the Express reports, Szijjártó said "it is a self delusion to call this situation a migration crisis; it is a massive migration of nations, with inexhaustible reserves.

"I don't think that the analysis results, stating that 30-35 million people out there could possibly become migrants, would be an exaggeration.

Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan are all countries with a huge population and an extremely unstable situation. The recent international political decisions created an unstable situation around Europe that makes sure that the amount of people won't decrease."

"This is why it's extremely important to protect our borders. This issue wasn't this important until now, so the European Union neglected it a little bit. It became clear that – though its border of Schengen – Greece couldn't protect the border of the European Union. The European Union just realized what the Schengen border means.

If we want to keep the freedom of movement in the European Union, we have to protect the outer borders."

Why is it that every single other country in the world seems to understand the importance of securing its borders…except US?

Imagine an entire country of people picking up and moving into other countries across Europe. That is what is taking place overseas right now.

Naturally, the American press will downplay the numbers and the widespread chaos it is causing, in favor of making it a pure humanitarian issue, rather than an issue that needs to be solved and remedied as quickly as possible.Also see...John Binder

John Binder is a news and political blogger for Right Wing News. Additionally, he is a New Orleans political reporter for TheHayride.com.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150917a.htm

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.

BTC is now a commodity - 

"If a company wants to operate a trading platform for Bitcoin derivatives or futures, it will need to register as a swap execution facility or designated contract market, just like the CME Group."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/bitcoin-is-officially-a-commodity-according-to-u-s-regulator

Rates should have been raised - Chad

From Yahoo Finance:

David Stockman is not a fan of the Fed. In fact he claims that the Fed is on a “jihad” against retirees and savers.

The former Reagan budget director and author of “The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America” visited Yahoo Finance ahead of the Fed announcement to discuss his predictions and the potential impact of today’s interest rate decision. “80 months of zero interest rates is downright crazy and it hasn’t helped the Main Street economy because we’re at peak debt,” he says.


Businesses in the U.S. are $12 trillion in debt. That’s $2 trillion more than before the crisis, but “all of it has gone into financial engineering—stock buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and so forth,” according to Stockman. “The jig is up; [the Fed] needs to get on with the business of allowing interest rates to find some normalized level.”


While Stockman believes that the Fed should absolutely raise rates today, he isn’t so sure that they will. But even if they do, he says they’ll muddle the effect by saying “‘one and done’ or ‘we’re going to sit back and watch this thing unfold for the next two or three months.’”


This all fuels an inflationary bubble on Wall Street, according to Stockman. “This massive money printing we’ve had has never gotten out of the canyons of Wall Street. It’s sitting there as excess reserves.”


According to Stockman, the weakness of the U.S. economy has been due to a lack of investment over the past 15 years and inflated labor costs in America that can’t compete on a global scale. “Simply printing more money and keeping interest rates at zero do not help that problem.”


Zero interest policies, says Stockman, are leading to the global economic turmoil we are currently experiencing. “In the last 15 years China took its debt from $2 trillion to $28 trillion… it’s a house of cards with an enormous overcapacity and enormous speculation and gambling that is beginning to roll over,” he says. “It’s just the leading edge of a global deflation that I think is underway as a consequence of all this excess credit growth that we’ve had.”


If the Fed raises rates and doesn’t mince words there’s going to be a long-running market correction, says Stockman. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates there will be a short-term relief rally but eventually the markets will lose confidence in the central bank bubble and we’ll be in store for a “huge correction.”


Full Article

Fed holds rates steady in nod to global economic weakness US - FOMC


17-SEP-2015 14:00:00

(Recasts with Fed policy statement)
Federal funds rate remains unchanged
Fed defers to global economic volatility
Yellen to hold news conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT)


By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday in a nod to concerns about a weak world economy, but left open the possibility of a modest policy tightening later this year.

In what amounted to a tactical retreat, the U.S. central bank said an array of global risks and other factors had convinced it to delay what would have been the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

"Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term," the Fed said in its policy statement following the end of a two-day meeting. It added the risks to the U.S. economy remained nearly balanced but that it was "monitoring developments abroad."

However, the central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike sometime this year, while lowering its long-term outlook for the economy. Fresh economic projections showed 13 of 17 Fed policymakers still foresee raising rates at least once in 2015, down from 15 at the last meeting in June. Four policymakers now believe rates should not be raised until at least 2016, compared to two who felt that way in June.

The Fed has policy meetings in October and December.

In deciding when to hike rates, the Fed repeated that it wanted to see "some further improvement in the labor market," and be "reasonably confident" that inflation will increase.
Taken as a whole, the latest Fed projections of slower GDP growth, low unemployment and still low inflation suggest that concerns of a so-called secular stagnation may be taking root among Fed policymakers. One policymaker even suggested a negative federal funds rate. The median projection of the 17 policymakers showed the Fed expects the economy to grow 2.1 percent this year, slightly faster than previously thought. However, its forecasts for GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 were downgraded. Policymakers also forecast inflation to creep only slowly toward the Fed's 2 percent target even as unemployment dips lower than previously expected. They now expect the unemployment rate to hit 4.8 percent next year, remaining at that level for as long as three years. The Fed's projected path of interest rates shifted downward, with the long-run federal funds rate now seen at 3.5 percent, compared to 3.75 percent at the last policy meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen was scheduled to hold a press conference later Thursday afternoon to elaborate on the decision.


The vote on the policy statement was a sign of how China's economic slowdown and market slide left Fed officials unnerved about the state of the world economy. Only Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented.

In recent months Fed officials like board member Jerome Powell and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had publicly endorsed a September rate hike, forming a near majority along with longstanding inflation hawks like Lacker.

In the end, however, they were left with a muddled picture marked by low U.S. unemployment and steady economic growth, but no sign that inflation has begun to rise towards the Fed's target.


(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)

"S&P's diagnosis about the uncertain economic outlook means that prospects for fiscal consolidation are becoming uncertain," said Toru Suehiro, senior market economist at Mizuho Securities.

Silver to gold strong....

GOLD - Uptrend is losing momentum

Short-term losses possible.

The eagerly awaited US jobs data on Friday provided a mixed picture. Although August figures were disappointing, data ​​for June and July were revised upwards at the same time. The price of Gold initially rose to 1,130 $/oz, but could not hold those gains and closed the week trading at 1,122.60 $/oz. A rate hike in the US currently moves to the distant future. Meanwhile there is market consensus that the Fed will not turn the interest rate screw in their meeting next week. A rate hike in December or even at the beginning of 2016 is becoming increasingly likely. Quite different situation in the Euro area: the ECB emphasized on Thursday that it is prepared to continuously increase liquidity of the financial system. Apart from the uncertainties around China and the situation in the emerging countries, the adjustment of the inflation forecast for the coming year from 1.5% to 1.1% is considered as the main driver. After Gold has not managed to test its mid-August highs, we now no longer rule out short-term losses, a drift down to 1,110 $/oz is possible. The next support is then at 1,080 $/oz, resistance forms around 1,148 $/oz and 1,170 $/oz. The subdued physical demand in Europe is accompanied by a stable demand in Hong Kong at a low level. Although market participants use price corrections to stock up, but we are not seeing any extensive buying interest.

 

SILVER - Little price movement

Silver shows most stable performance among precious metals.

Last week, Silver could recover from its lows just below 14 $/oz, but on its way up found resistance at 15 $/oz and did not manage to overcome this mark. Volatility over the week was relatively low, obviously the market is unclear about the direction in which to proceed. Compared to the other precious metals, Silver performed relatively strong and, as a result, the Gold/Silver-ratio moved away from its peak at 80 and is now again around 76.

We continue to observe high physical demand for bullion and grains, especially from Germany and the US.

The possible extension of quantitative easing measures by the ECB led to a loss of the Euro against the US dollar, therefore the Silver prices gained more clearly in the common currency.

 

PLATINUM - Demand remains subdued

Mining industry facing considerable changes.

Last week, Platinum established itself above the 1,000 $/oz mark, but suffered some profit-taking at the end of the week. However, a drop far below the $ 990 $/oz mark is currently not expected. The metal is now trading in a range between 990 $/oz and 1,020 $/oz, a break-through above 1,025 $/oz could result in an upward movement to over 1,040 $/oz. Support is currently at 945 $/oz. Industrial demand generally remains subdued, the weaker Chinese economic expectations are still in focus.

Recent news from South Africa reflects the growing pressure on Platinum producers. Although the government and mines agreed on concrete measures to avoid job cuts last week, experts doubt whether these actions may be effective due to the overall tense situation. At the same time, Impala’s announcement attracted quite some attention. Due to the low price level, the second largest Platinum producer will close shafts scaling back output by 180 koz of Platinum over the next 5 years.

 

PALLADIUM - Volatility continues

Prices above 600 $/oz currently not in sight.

Particularly in the beginning of the week we saw a high price volatility in Palladium. On Monday the metal traded in a range of 25 $/oz. Technically, support for Palladium is now at 572 $/oz, while resistance forms at 604 $/oz. Despite lower prices, we cannot observe increased demand for the metal. ETF holdings decreased significantly, we recorded total outflows of more than 34 koz. Even an overall strong demand from the United States in the course of the year seems unable to stimulate the palladium price. According to recent news, analysts now calculate with sales of 17.8 million vehicles for the full year 2015. This represents an increase of 500,000 units compared to the previous forecast and would represent the strongest year since 2001.

 

RHODIUM, RUTHENIUM, IRIDIUM - Rhodium in downtrend

Slight rise in prices for Ruthenium and Iridium.

The downward trend in Rhodium continues and the price dropped by another 25 $/oz last week. Consumers seem to have little confidence in lower prices, since the metal is on a multi-year low and in recent weeks, rallies were rather used to sell instead of making further purchases. Trading activity is on a relatively low level, but interest of the manufacturing industry, such as automotive and chemical industry, is definitely present.

Demand for Ruthenium has picked up noticeably, which is also reflected in a slightly firmer price. The price is relatively well supported as Ruthenium trades on a 11.5-year low. Purchases have been completed both by consumers from the electrochemical as well as from the electronics industry.

After some quieter weeks of "summer lull" we could also observe greater interest in Iridium. The price has gained some momentum and now trades around 15-20 $/oz higher than in the precedent week.

Have a great week!

 

Martina Fischer
Head of Marketing & Communications

 

Global Business Unit

Heraeus Metal Management

Marketing & Communications

 

Heraeus Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG
Heraeusstrasse 12-14

63450 Hanau, Germany

 

Phone: + 49 6181 / 35-9648

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E-Mail:  martina.fischer@heraeus.com

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