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Economics January 2017"},{"term":"U.K. Economics"},{"term":"U.S. Corporate law"},{"term":"UPS"},{"term":"US Coal"},{"term":"US Disposable Personal Income"},{"term":"US Exports"},{"term":"US Oil"},{"term":"US Personal Income"},{"term":"US Personal Income Historical Data"},{"term":"US Stats"},{"term":"USA Oil"},{"term":"USDA"},{"term":"USDCHF"},{"term":"UWTI"},{"term":"Uber 2017"},{"term":"Ukraine"},{"term":"Unemployment"},{"term":"United Kingdom"},{"term":"Univeristy"},{"term":"VKOSPI"},{"term":"Venezuela"},{"term":"Venture Capital"},{"term":"Volume"},{"term":"Wages"},{"term":"Wall Street"},{"term":"Weed"},{"term":"White House"},{"term":"Wisconsin Municipal Bonds"},{"term":"Xi"},{"term":"Yeti Holdings"},{"term":"ad"},{"term":"airport"},{"term":"altcoin"},{"term":"altcoin taxes"},{"term":"altcoins"},{"term":"apple"},{"term":"apple iphone"},{"term":"apps"},{"term":"arab finance"},{"term":"banking"},{"term":"brent crude election night"},{"term":"bubbles"},{"term":"cable"},{"term":"capital"},{"term":"coca cola"},{"term":"comm"},{"term":"commod"},{"term":"corporate"},{"term":"crypto taxes"},{"term":"cryptocurrency"},{"term":"cryptography"},{"term":"currency law"},{"term":"currency wars"},{"term":"deals q3 2016"},{"term":"economic bubbles"},{"term":"equity"},{"term":"family office"},{"term":"feathercoin"},{"term":"financial collapse"},{"term":"fitbit"},{"term":"forex"},{"term":"ftc"},{"term":"g20"},{"term":"global market"},{"term":"going public"},{"term":"gold December 2016"},{"term":"gold council"},{"term":"golf"},{"term":"holiday retails sales 2016"},{"term":"international law"},{"term":"international relations"},{"term":"investors"},{"term":"italy"},{"term":"lehman"},{"term":"life extension"},{"term":"litecoin"},{"term":"ltc. btc"},{"term":"manipulation"},{"term":"marketing"},{"term":"media"},{"term":"media economics"},{"term":"mergers 2016"},{"term":"middle east economics march 2017"},{"term":"minimum wage"},{"term":"monopoly"},{"term":"moodys"},{"term":"next generation"},{"term":"nike fuel"},{"term":"nsa"},{"term":"port"},{"term":"q3 2016 ipo"},{"term":"q4 2016 ipo"},{"term":"rants"},{"term":"reading list"},{"term":"reflation"},{"term":"regulation 2017"},{"term":"restructuring"},{"term":"retail 2016"},{"term":"retail industry holiday sales 2016"},{"term":"retail sales 2016"},{"term":"salt market asia"},{"term":"savannah"},{"term":"securities"},{"term":"sharia law"},{"term":"shopping sales 2016"},{"term":"smartphones"},{"term":"smartwatch"},{"term":"sneakers"},{"term":"stock market 2017"},{"term":"stock market bubbles"},{"term":"the weather channel"},{"term":"ticket receivables"},{"term":"trump era"},{"term":"trump regulation"},{"term":"us energy"},{"term":"vix"},{"term":"volatility"},{"term":"wearable technology"},{"term":"weather"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Chaganomics.com"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Popular Blog Devoted to Global Macroeconomics and General Economics."},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/-\/Statistics?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/search\/label\/Statistics"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"7"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-9187584833394704404"},"published":{"$t":"2018-12-28T02:00:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-12-28T02:00:05.931-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Brent \u0026 WTI Forecasts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-e4l2vdAhwo0\/XCVUuDt_p0I\/AAAAAAAAMnc\/2iGHIeWQFMwABNgV386nGFOJcWZCVWOywCLcBGAs\/s1600\/crude_oil_barrells_25cbd37e63e7f64ef2623291ceed5979.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"300\" data-original-width=\"718\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-e4l2vdAhwo0\/XCVUuDt_p0I\/AAAAAAAAMnc\/2iGHIeWQFMwABNgV386nGFOJcWZCVWOywCLcBGAs\/s1600\/crude_oil_barrells_25cbd37e63e7f64ef2623291ceed5979.jpg\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003EBrent Crude\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe panelist forecast range for Q4 2019 runs from a minimum of USD 56.8 per barrel to a maximum of USD 106.9 per barrel.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EBrent crude oil prices continued to freefall over the last month, with the global oil benchmark sinking to more than a one-year low in late November. On 30 November, oil prices traded at USD 57.5 per barrel, which was down 24.0% from the same day last month. The benchmark price for global crude oil markets was down 9.5% from the same day last year and was 13.8% lower on a year-to-date basis. The announcement in early November that the U.S. would provide waivers to eight countries in order to allow them to continue purchasing Iranian oil after the implementation of U.S. sanctions on 4 November triggered the price spiral, as Iranian exports are now unlikely to fall as much as previously predicted. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.—the world’s top three oil producers—are pumping close to all-time highs, adding further downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, signs have recently emerged of flagging activity. The Chinese economy has been decelerating in 2018, Japan recorded a contraction in the third quarter, while Q3 GDP data for the Euro area was the weakest since 2014. This likely added to investors’ concerns over the future appetite for crude oil. Going forward, our panelists see prices recovering from their current low level following such an abrupt decline, with prices likely now trading below fundamentals. However, significant uncertainty still clouds the outlook. One key factor will be whether OPEC agrees to production cuts—potentially as soon as its meeting on 6 December—in order to support prices. In addition, the possibility of an extension to U.S. waivers on Iranian oil exports and the evolution of the U.S.-China trade spat could have an important bearing on prices. FocusEconomics panelists see prices averaging USD 73.2 per barrel in Q4 2019 and USD 73.6 per barrel in Q4 2020. In light of recent developments, 4 panelists upwardly adjusted their Q4 2019 forecasts compared to last month. Meanwhile, 26 panelists kept their projections unchanged and 6 cut their forecasts.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe panelist forecast range for Q4 2019 runs from a minimum of USD 56.8 per barrel to a maximum of USD 106.9 per barrel.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-vabtKFcievQ\/XCVX8Rd0KrI\/AAAAAAAAMno\/63gEk8Y0r-Ax5Fv0yRpzak4RvPNWtR6ZwCEwYBhgL\/s1600\/Brent%2BCrude%2B2020.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"715\" data-original-width=\"644\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-vabtKFcievQ\/XCVX8Rd0KrI\/AAAAAAAAMno\/63gEk8Y0r-Ax5Fv0yRpzak4RvPNWtR6ZwCEwYBhgL\/s640\/Brent%2BCrude%2B2020.PNG\" width=\"576\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cu\u003EWTI\u003C\/u\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EFor Q4 2019, the maximum price forecast is USD 94.8 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 51.5 per barrel.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have hit a 13-month low over the last month on ample supply. WTI crude oil prices traded at USD 50.8 per barrel on 30 November, which was down 23.3% from the same day last month. The price was 16.0% lower on a year-to-date basis and was down 11.5% from the same day last year. On the international scene, the announcement in early November of U.S. waivers for eight countries to allow them to continue importing Iranian oil sent prices crashing in recent weeks. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to pump at near-record highs, adding further downward price pressure. Domestically, comprehensive EIA data for the week ending 23 November showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels over the previous week, approximately 7% higher than the 5-year average. The 23 November data also marked the 10th consecutive week that inventories have climbed, an indication of elevated supply. On the demand side, despite a strong U.S. economy, global demand for crude oil is likely abating on weaker dynamics in China, the EU and Japan. Prices are likely to rise somewhat going forward following such a sharp decrease in recent weeks which has led to oil looking oversold. Moreover, potential production cuts at the upcoming OPEC meeting in December would support prices. Greater U.S. shale production and softer demand growth, however, will limit any upward movement. For Q4 2019, analysts expect prices to average USD 67.2 per barrel, before increasing slightly in Q4 2020 to USD 68.7 per barrel. In response to recent developments, 18 panelists left their forecasts unchanged for Q4 2019 from last month, 2 of our panelists upgraded their projections, while 8 made a cut to their projections. The spread between the minimum and the maximum oil price forecasts remains relatively wide, with numerous drivers at play in oil markets in recent weeks:\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EFor Q4 2019, the maximum price forecast is USD 94.8 per barrel, while the minimum is USD 51.5 per barrel.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-NSthYQUTqVg\/XCVX8k9BZyI\/AAAAAAAAMns\/PsdHTyNZWmoFsuGcqMp3uygHLcHU4AT2ACLcBGAs\/s1600\/WTI%2BCrude%2BForcast%2B2020.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"746\" data-original-width=\"658\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-NSthYQUTqVg\/XCVX8k9BZyI\/AAAAAAAAMns\/PsdHTyNZWmoFsuGcqMp3uygHLcHU4AT2ACLcBGAs\/s640\/WTI%2BCrude%2BForcast%2B2020.PNG\" width=\"563\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThank you content partner \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.focus-economics.com\/\"\u003EFocus Economics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/9187584833394704404"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/9187584833394704404"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/12\/brent-wti-forecasts.html","title":"Brent \u0026 WTI Forecasts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-e4l2vdAhwo0\/XCVUuDt_p0I\/AAAAAAAAMnc\/2iGHIeWQFMwABNgV386nGFOJcWZCVWOywCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/crude_oil_barrells_25cbd37e63e7f64ef2623291ceed5979.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-3988378032534745050"},"published":{"$t":"2018-11-15T16:07:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-11-15T16:07:01.586-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"business"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"China Economic Outlook December 2018"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-fhvLkAqdgKc\/W-3b-mwmNQI\/AAAAAAAAMl8\/Pzt_GBKip_w94Z_Uvn5HAGsXkPzBMNxzgCLcBGAs\/s1600\/China_Real_GDP_2023_Capture.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"476\" data-original-width=\"861\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-fhvLkAqdgKc\/W-3b-mwmNQI\/AAAAAAAAMl8\/Pzt_GBKip_w94Z_Uvn5HAGsXkPzBMNxzgCLcBGAs\/s1600\/China_Real_GDP_2023_Capture.PNG\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003EChina’s spectacular economic growth of recent decades will slow.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EAmid rising trade tensions with the United States, economic growth decelerated in the third quarter to levels not seen since the trough of the global financial crisis in 2009. This has piled pressure on the Chinese government to reignite economic activity. On the upside, growth in fixed asset investment ticked up in September, suggesting that the first bunch of stimulus measures have started to kick in. Moreover, the economy is benefiting from the front-loading of shipments ahead of planned additional tariffs to be imposed by the U.S. in January 2019, as well as by less restrictive anti-pollution policies. Meanwhile, on 20 October the government presented a new special deduction plan to be implemented in 2019, which builds upon the tax reform announced in August and hopes to support household consumption. More recently, President Xi Jinping vowed to support private companies in a meeting with top businesses on 1 November. State-owned firms enjoy preferential access to credit, which hurts private financing especially in a context of weak lending growth.  Looking ahead, China’s spectacular economic growth of recent decades will slow as authorities attempt to guide the country towards a more sustainable economic model. Moreover, headwinds from the tit-for-tat trade war with the U.S. and a potential sharp correction in the housing market are the main downside risks to growth. Despite this, a looser fiscal stance and a more accommodative monetary policy should cushion any sizeable economic downturn. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before decelerating slightly to 6.0% in 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EInflation stabilized at September’s 2.5% in October. Despite high energy prices, a weaker currency and relatively loose monetary policy, inflationary pressures will remain largely contained, reflecting weakening domestic demand. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that inflation will average 2.3% in both 2019 and 2020.  The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) uses a complex system to implement monetary policy, including the use of key benchmark rates, open market operations (OMO) and reserve requirement ratios. In recent weeks, the PBOC continues to inject liquidity into the system through OMO. Panelists expect that the one-year deposit and lending rates to close 2019 at 1.52% and 4.33% respectively, and 2020 at 1.57% and 4.33%.  The yuan continued to tumble in recent weeks and hit the weakest point in a decade on 31 October. The depreciation reflected spillovers from the ongoing trade spat with the United States and cooling domestic growth. Nevertheless, the yuan strengthened slightly in the following days and, on 9 November, it traded at 6.96 CNY per USD, a 0.5% weaker compared to the same day in October. Our panelists see the yuan ending 2019 at 6.95 CNY per USD and 2020 at 6.81 CNY per USD.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote class=\"tr_bq\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe weakest performance since the financial crisis in the third quarter spells sharper Chinese slowdown\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe Chinese economy decelerated further in the third quarter as the effects of aggressive financial deleveraging bogged down growth. GDP expanded 6.5% in annual terms in Q3, down from the 6.7% expansion recorded in Q2. The figure was below market analysts’ expectations of 6.6% growth and the softest print since Q1 2009. In seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP growth inched down to 1.6% from a downwardly-revised 1.7% expansion in Q2.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-_Gk4uIZPkIs\/WZ9cjIvXZZI\/AAAAAAAALf4\/5gpo8S4hC7EM4vS7fcij4ZCnFrBOTipdgCPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/FOCUS%2BECON%2BLOGO.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"486\" data-original-width=\"1000\" height=\"155\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-_Gk4uIZPkIs\/WZ9cjIvXZZI\/AAAAAAAALf4\/5gpo8S4hC7EM4vS7fcij4ZCnFrBOTipdgCPcBGAYYCw\/s320\/FOCUS%2BECON%2BLOGO.PNG\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/3988378032534745050"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/3988378032534745050"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/11\/china-economic-outlook-december-2018.html","title":"China Economic Outlook December 2018"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-fhvLkAqdgKc\/W-3b-mwmNQI\/AAAAAAAAMl8\/Pzt_GBKip_w94Z_Uvn5HAGsXkPzBMNxzgCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/China_Real_GDP_2023_Capture.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-9175744973381726432"},"published":{"$t":"2018-10-25T13:36:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-10-25T13:37:00.723-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Economic Snapshot For Turkey: In Deterioration "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-jS4bHULJGr4\/W9H3FbVK60I\/AAAAAAAAMjE\/rYnmbPa_wqscXVvGB8OGpOdEUf560wWmQCLcBGAs\/s1600\/turkish%2Binflation%2B2017%2BCapture.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"436\" data-original-width=\"515\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-jS4bHULJGr4\/W9H3FbVK60I\/AAAAAAAAMjE\/rYnmbPa_wqscXVvGB8OGpOdEUf560wWmQCLcBGAs\/s640\/turkish%2Binflation%2B2017%2BCapture.PNG\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe outlook in Turkey has worsened.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEconomics\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ERecent indicators suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. Consumer and business confidence continued to plummet in September and are now both firmly in negative territory, while in the same month the manufacturing PMI sank lower on stronger contractions in output and new orders. Moreover, annual retail sales growth reached an over one-year low in July. Retail sales likely softened further in the remainder of Q3, on higher inflation and weaker sentiment. On the plus side, the gaping current account deficit has begun to narrow thanks to the weaker currency and softer domestic demand. This comes after recent figures show that growth held up well in the second quarter, buoyed by a stronger external sector, a pre-election government spending boost and robust private consumption. On the political front, in late September Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, presented the much-anticipated New Economic Plan, which sets out a more constrained fiscal stance and far lower growth forecasts. • The economy will likely lose considerable steam in the next few quarters on tight financial conditions, weak sentiment and sky-high inflation. Further exchange rate volatility and an escalation of geopolitical tensions pose significant downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% this year and 1.0% in 2019, down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. • Inflation rose from 15.8% in July to 17.9% in August, pushed up by the weaker lira. Inflation is likely to rise even further in the coming months given the recent currency crash but should then dip on softer domestic demand. Our panel sees inflation ending 2018 at 20.7% and 2019 at 13.7%. • At its 13 September meeting, the Central Bank jacked up the repo rate from 17.75% to 24.00%. The decisive move was designed to support the currency and temper price pressures, and it should go some way to restoring investors’ faith in the Bank’s independence. The Bank is likely to maintain its tight stance in the near-term to consolidate recent lira gains and check runaway inflation. Our panelists see the one-week repo rate ending 2018 at 24.25% and 2019 at 19.97%. • On 28 September, the lira traded at TRY 6.06 per USD, strengthening 3.5% from the same day in the previous month. The appreciation followed announcements of tighter fiscal and monetary policy. Nevertheless, the currency has still lost a huge amount of value since the start of the year. Going forward, the lira is likely to remain highly volatile, due to geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and ongoing market skepticism of the government’s policy agenda. Our panelists see the exchange rate ending 2018 at TRY 6.46 per USD and 2019 at TRY 6.73 per USD at end-2019.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EPolitics\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ETreasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak presented the New Economic Program (NEP) (formerly the Medium-Term Program, MTP) on 20 September. The plan provided more credible macroeconomic forecasts—including for reduced growth and markedly higher inflation—and set out a more cautious fiscal stance. As a result, the program should go some way to restoring investors’ faith in the government’s macroeconomic policymaking, reduce economic imbalances and support the lira. However, full implementation of the announced measures will be key to rebuilding investors’ trust, while concrete proposals for the banking sector were limited. The program established TRY 60 billion of cost savings and TRY 16 billion of extra revenue for 2019 (around USD 12 billion in total). The vast majority of cost savings are expected to come from investment programs, incentives and\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Ethe social security system, while extra revenue will be raised by broadening the tax base through a reduction in exemptions. The government also announced changes to public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives to boost affordability. This comes after the IMF warned the country earlier this year\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Eabout the fiscal risks associated with such schemes, which have played a key role in infrastructure development under President Erdogan and were recently valued by the Fund at around USD 61 billion. Thanks to this fiscal austerity, the NEP forecasts a rising primary surplus and a central budget deficit contained below 2% of GDP going forward. Moreover, the plan sees the economy growing just 2.3% next year and 3.5% in 2020, in contrast to a target of 5.5% growth in both those years in last year’s MTP.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe 2019 target is still markedly above FocusEconomics panelists’ expectations, but the overall message is that—at least in the near-term—President Erdogan appears willing to temper his growth-at-all-costs approach to economic policymaking. Regarding inflation, the plan sees it ending next\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Eyear at around 16%, and only returning to single digits in 2020. Looking at the external sector, the government aims to sharply reduce the current account deficit going forward. As well as the weaker lira aiding competitiveness, the program also aims to achieve this by boosting domestic production in areas such as pharmaceuticals, energy and machinery, where Turkey is currently extremely dependent on imports. This will take time, however, and FocusEconomics panelists predict a more modest narrowing of the current account deficit over the coming years. Regarding the banking sector, the NEP stated that the government will conduct a review of banks’ financial soundness. However, there were no concrete steps to address concerns over non-performing loans—which could rise as firms struggle with a hefty external debt burden—or banks’ access to international financing. According to ING analysts, the “programme is a step in the right direction with rebalancing on growth and reviving a commitment to fiscal prudence, though the inflation path is to remain elevated longer.”\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EEconomists at Nomura also agree that the NEP—together with the Central Bank’s recent rate hike—is a sign that “the authorities are gradually adjusting to reality.” However, they go on to state: “We do not believe they [the NEP and rate hike] are enough to reverse the long-running trend of erosion of policy making credibility in Turkey. Even if these are credible policy changes, it is probably too late to reverse the economic downturn because of the negative effects of currency depreciation on private sector balance sheets.” The more conservative fiscal stance should provide support to the beleaguered lira going forward. However, ING and Nomura highlight that the Plan’s implicit 2019 exchange rate assumption—calculated by both firms at around TRY 5.60 per USD—could be slightly optimistic. FocusEconomics panelists concur, and see the currency ending 2018 at TRY 6.46 per USD and 2019 at TRY 6.73 per USD. Despite tighter fiscal and monetary policy, a sustained improvement in the exchange rate outlook will likely be dependent on a reduction in geopolitical tensions, particularly a normalization of relations with the United States. As economists at Nomura comment: “We also need a de-escalation on the foreign policy front. […] If there is no resolution […] and if this is followed by further US sanctions on Turkey (and a possible fine on state-owned Halkbank), then the pressure on Turkish assets will resume forcefully.”\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/9175744973381726432"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/9175744973381726432"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/10\/economic-snapshot-for-turkey-in.html","title":"Economic Snapshot For Turkey: In Deterioration "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-jS4bHULJGr4\/W9H3FbVK60I\/AAAAAAAAMjE\/rYnmbPa_wqscXVvGB8OGpOdEUf560wWmQCLcBGAs\/s72-c\/turkish%2Binflation%2B2017%2BCapture.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-8534321529608303997"},"published":{"$t":"2018-06-25T11:24:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-06-25T16:12:51.053-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Demographics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Census Housing Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-TB-vfsa6USI\/UPHba-fEOMI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/23ssOAyiUJsLEBkO1OhDgdZPO6K5mTb1ACPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/Atlanta14762_wpm_lowres.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"267\" data-original-width=\"400\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-TB-vfsa6USI\/UPHba-fEOMI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/23ssOAyiUJsLEBkO1OhDgdZPO6K5mTb1ACPcBGAYYCw\/s320\/Atlanta14762_wpm_lowres.jpg\" width=\"320\" id=\"id_e2d4_7e7e_33e5_9dea\" style=\"width: 320px; height: auto;\"\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ESales of new single-family houses in May 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 689,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.7 percent (±14.1 percent)* above the revised April rate of 646,000 and is 14.1 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the May 2017 estimate of 604,000. Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2018 was $313,000. The average sales price was $368,500. For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 299,000. This represents a supply of 5.2 months at the current sales rate.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales.pdf\"\u003ECensus Link\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/8534321529608303997"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/8534321529608303997"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/06\/census-housing-report.html","title":"Census Housing Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-TB-vfsa6USI\/UPHba-fEOMI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/23ssOAyiUJsLEBkO1OhDgdZPO6K5mTb1ACPcBGAYYCw\/s72-c\/Atlanta14762_wpm_lowres.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-3758978357400295502"},"published":{"$t":"2018-04-24T01:45:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-04-25T04:26:19.364-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"American Economic Sentiment Riding High "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cimg id=\"id_efb6_47f0_2fb0_d879\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-yekDRSQJ3rs\/Wt5F83xNXHI\/AAAAAAAAMJc\/zllqIzvLwLMndE7M-j96-tKis8JJcf2FwCHMYCw\/s5000\/%255BUNSET%255D\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tooltip=\"\" style=\"width: 298px; height: auto;\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003EMany believe the trade war talk to be just that, talk. There is little if any damage being done. While I agree that it is more likely a trade war will not happen, I falter at the anti-free market lunacy of the current POTUS. Can you not handle trade negotions with negotiations? We are not building a condomimim complex. POTUS is \u0026nbsp;putting economics in the hands of political economists, or whatever you’d like to call them...Men who use the science and art of economics to propel partisan rhetoric. What a crime! I will say that when politics die, they are generally destroyed. When these days vanish we will be in a much better place. There is no room for polite society inside \u0026nbsp; state run\u0026nbsp;propaganda and\u0026nbsp;US media.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003EFathom Consulting: Our US Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) may have slipped from 6.8% to 6.3% in March, but this was still one of the highest readings in 21 years. This comes in spite of growing fears of a trade war between the US and China, which many suggested would dampen sentiment and economic activity. Some of these fears may yet be reflected in the ESI reading for April, since some survey responses for March will have been submitted before China-specific tariffs were announced on 22 March. \u0026nbsp;However, fears of a trade war first surfaced in February, when the US announced tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, and there is no sign that this had a material negative effect on business and consumer sentiment last month. Even if a trade war is avoided, as we anticipate, we do not expect such bullish business and consumer sentiment to be maintained indefinitely — hard and soft measures of economic activity are likely to converge later this year. \u0026nbsp;Given the Q1 data released so far, official GDP growth looks likely to have been 1.5-2.0% (annualized). We have therefore revised down our forecast from 2.6% to 1.7%. However, GDP growth in Q1 has been systematically lower than growth in other quarters since 2000 and we do not think that this marks a slowdown in underlying economic activity; we expect growth to bounce back in Q2.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003E\u003Cbr\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);\"\u003E- Thank you Fathom Consulting\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/3758978357400295502"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/3758978357400295502"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/04\/american-economic-sentiment-riding-high.html","title":"American Economic Sentiment Riding High "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-yekDRSQJ3rs\/Wt5F83xNXHI\/AAAAAAAAMJc\/zllqIzvLwLMndE7M-j96-tKis8JJcf2FwCHMYCw\/s72-c\/%255BUNSET%255D","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-1563256457915914076"},"published":{"$t":"2018-04-04T13:11:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-04-04T13:12:28.755-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"business"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Global Economic Outlook G7"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/currency-image001.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"307\" data-original-width=\"460\" height=\"213\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s320\/currency-image001.jpg\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003EREAL SECTOR | Trade war threatens to derail stellar global growth momentum A complete GDP dataset revealed that global growth lost some steam in the fourth quarter of 2017, despite remaining robust overall. The global economy expanded 3.4% annually in Q4, which was a notch below both the 3.5% rise estimated last month, and the 3.5% expansion recorded in Q3 2017. The slightly lower figure was the result of weaker-than-expected growth in Latin America, particularly in Brazil. Conversely, newly released GDP data for India came in above market expectations. Data for Q1 signals that the economy continues to sail smoothly, propelled by largely accommodative monetary policies, tight labor markets and robust global trade. Against this backdrop, our analysts expect the global economy to expand 3.5% in Q1 on improved dynamics in both advanced and emerging market economies. Despite the solid economic backdrop, the threat of rising protectionism has dominated headlines in recent weeks. Notably, the United States announced on 22 March its first set of punitive actions against China by proposing tariffs on up to USD 60 billion of imports from the Asian giant. Although China showed readiness to retaliate by announcing tariffs on USD 3.0 billion of goods, the U.S. decision leaves room for negotiation before implementation, an opportunity Beijing is unlikely to ignore in a bid to prevent further escalation. The risk remains that if negotiations fail, U.S. protectionism will spiral out of control and cause an all-out trade war with China, which would harm both economies and throw a wrench in the works of the global economy. The U.S. decision to impose trade restrictions on China came only two weeks after the Trump administration announced tariffs on steel and aluminum products, citing national security grounds under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. That said, many economies were given temporary exemptions before the tariffs came into force on 23 March, including the European Union and NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico. Negotiations over the North American trade agreement are still ongoing, and, although progress is painfully slow, the U.S. recently softened its stance on rules of origin in an unexpected sign of goodwill. All told, while the U.S. has turned more belligerent on the trade front in recent weeks, it has also taken a less aggressive stance in some areas. On a more positive note, eleven countries signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Global\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003ENote: GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 2015 - Q4 2019.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003ENote: GDP, evolution of 2018 and 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months. FOCUSECONOMICS Summary FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ci\u003E3 April 2018 partnership (CPTPP) on 8 March, a trade liberalization deal that removes most tariffs for a bloc representing nearly 500 million people and more than 13% of global trade. The bloc—from which the United States withdrew last year—should stir trade flows across the Pacific and fuel stronger economic growth in all the countries involved. The CPTPP is expected to go into effect two months after most of the participants have domestically ratified the agreement. In the European Union, a whirlwind of political news has kept analysts on their toes. On 4 March, parliamentary elections in Italy yielded a hung parliament, with anti-establishment parties gaining over half of the seats and traditional parties being relegated to a state of political limbo. Despite signs of rapprochement between the North League and the 5-Star Movement, the country is unlikely to find a way out any time soon, heralding a period of political uncertainty ahead. Conversely, Germany put an end to over five months of political gridlock following the formation of the second consecutive alliance between the Social Democrats and Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union. Ongoing negotiations over Brexit have also grabbed headlines, with a draft withdrawal agreement reached on 19 March finally signaling progress in EU-UK talks. The draft establishes a transition period that will kickstart once the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 and last until 31 December 2020. This should provide more certainty to businesses and prevent an outflow of capital from the UK, although thorny issues remain largely unaddressed, mainly regarding the border with Northern Ireland.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003EOUTLOOK | Global economy to accelerate marginally this year despite growing protectionism fears The sweet spot in which the global economy finds itself could quickly come to an end amid rising trade disputes between China and the United States. While the trade war appears to be circumscribed to these two countries for now, further antitrade measures against economies with large trade surpluses against the U.S., particularly the European Union, remain a possibility. Should these fears materialize, the ongoing stellar global trade cycle could sharply slow, hitting economic growth worldwide. Moreover, central banks are adopting a more hawkish tone in response to reduced economic slack which is beginning to push up inflation. Less accommodative monetary policies by key central banks could tighten financial markets and add downward pressure to global economic growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect the global economy to grow 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate and would represent the strongest rate in seven years. In 2019, the global economy is seen decelerating slightly, to 3.2% growth. Although the 2018 GDP growth projection was unchanged from last month’s report, the economies of the Euro area and the United States both saw upgrades to their growth estimates. Growth prospects for Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom were left unchanged.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E4 April 2018 Among developing nations, China’s resilient economic growth, a strong global trade cycle and improving dynamics in India are shoring up economic activity in the Asia (ex-Japan) region. Eastern Europe, meanwhile, is benefiting from the ongoing economic recovery in Russia, solid growth among some key regional economies such as Romania and Turkey, and robust dynamics in the European Union. While the economic outlook in Latin America appeared to be more stable in recent months, political uncertainty in some countries continues to dent the region’s growth projections. Despite mounting geopolitical risks and economic imbalances, the outlook in the Middle East and North Africa, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, are gradually improving on the back of a higher commodity price environment.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003EReport and Data from \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.focus-economics.com\/\"\u003EFocusEconomics\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-_Gk4uIZPkIs\/WZ9cjIvXZZI\/AAAAAAAALf4\/5gpo8S4hC7EM4vS7fcij4ZCnFrBOTipdgCPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/FOCUS%2BECON%2BLOGO.PNG\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"486\" data-original-width=\"1000\" height=\"155\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-_Gk4uIZPkIs\/WZ9cjIvXZZI\/AAAAAAAALf4\/5gpo8S4hC7EM4vS7fcij4ZCnFrBOTipdgCPcBGAYYCw\/s320\/FOCUS%2BECON%2BLOGO.PNG\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/1563256457915914076"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/1563256457915914076"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/04\/global-economic-outlook-g7.html","title":"Global Economic Outlook G7"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s72-c\/currency-image001.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-6514045750184038349"},"published":{"$t":"2018-03-06T14:38:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2018-03-06T14:38:32.176-05:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Business Law"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Statistics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Stats"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"U.S. Labor \u0026 Employment Situation Notes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s1600\/currency-image001.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"307\" data-original-width=\"460\" height=\"133\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s200\/currency-image001.jpg\" width=\"200\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EAt a glance and with a bevy of charts, we take a look at current business cycles, labor and the employment situation in America. \"Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care and manufacturing. The strength of the U.S. labor market is evident from the most-recent Labor Department figures which showed that U.S. filings for unemployment benefits decreased by 10,000 to 210,000, the lowest since December 1969 (better than the estimation of 225,000).\" - NASDAQ\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-JiWeHix-oss\/Wp7r1zDrjNI\/AAAAAAAAMDo\/t8BlvtjIF-8Ve3ccS6_YmbzDc7a-Et8HwCLcBGAs\/s1600\/Aggressive_DB_Unemployment%2BChart_png.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"542\" data-original-width=\"703\" height=\"493\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-JiWeHix-oss\/Wp7r1zDrjNI\/AAAAAAAAMDo\/t8BlvtjIF-8Ve3ccS6_YmbzDc7a-Et8HwCLcBGAs\/s640\/Aggressive_DB_Unemployment%2BChart_png.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ETHE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2018 Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EHousehold Survey Data In January, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.7 million, changed little over the month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EHealthcare, Food + Drink\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EEmployment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in January (+31,000). The industry has added 255,000 jobs over the past 12 months. Employment in health care continued to trend up in January (+21,000), with a gain of 13,000 in hospitals. In 2017, health care added an average of 24,000 jobs per month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EHousing + Construction\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EConstruction added 36,000 jobs in January, with most of the increase occurring among specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Employment in residential building construction continued to trend up over the month (+5,000). Over the year, construction employment has increased by 226,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Up4kgxbcA\/Wp7r19jkPoI\/AAAAAAAAMDk\/sG3ZInlEtoILJujOAriYmKGUGyG511WKgCLcBGAs\/s1600\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_average-hourly-earnings.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1000\" data-original-width=\"1368\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Up4kgxbcA\/Wp7r19jkPoI\/AAAAAAAAMDk\/sG3ZInlEtoILJujOAriYmKGUGyG511WKgCLcBGAs\/s640\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_average-hourly-earnings.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zjzukz5--4I\/Wp7r1zK0HoI\/AAAAAAAAMDs\/U7xoScbMZLUGWmexEgMHMW0AAGNngflWgCLcBGAs\/s1600\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_employment.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1000\" data-original-width=\"1368\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zjzukz5--4I\/Wp7r1zK0HoI\/AAAAAAAAMDs\/U7xoScbMZLUGWmexEgMHMW0AAGNngflWgCLcBGAs\/s640\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_employment.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-DHLLSRedpiI\/Wp7r2S4G-WI\/AAAAAAAAMDw\/xPSNJN_A2VgaiwZkdSLsUb-k3FIc8g00QCLcBGAs\/s1600\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_one-month-employment-change-ranked-by-industry-hourly-earnings.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"1300\" data-original-width=\"1368\" height=\"608\" src=\"https:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-DHLLSRedpiI\/Wp7r2S4G-WI\/AAAAAAAAMDw\/xPSNJN_A2VgaiwZkdSLsUb-k3FIc8g00QCLcBGAs\/s640\/atlanta-fed_labor-report-snapshot_one-month-employment-change-ranked-by-industry-hourly-earnings.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EData from: LTCI Economics, DB Research, Atlanta FED\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/6514045750184038349"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/6514045750184038349"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/03\/us-labor-employment-situation-notes.html","title":"U.S. Labor \u0026 Employment Situation Notes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-yO4LSh4oxrI\/UPCCxj7L2ZI\/AAAAAAAAKaM\/YOinCHvV7T4Xti8QLc87IMBHUkuS2Vh9wCPcBGAYYCw\/s72-c\/currency-image001.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}}]}});