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Moreover, real earnings growth accelerated notably, as the tight labor market fed wage pressures. Employment growth, however, softened in quarter-on-quarter terms, possibly on rising Brexit uncertainty. Looking to Q4, signs are less positive. In October, both the services and manufacturing PMIs fell, while annual retail sales growth slowed considerably and consumer sentiment worsened. On the fiscal front, the government recently presented an expansionary budget, which should support growth next year thanks to higher spending and tax cuts. In mid November, the UK and EU reached a preliminary agreement on Brexit withdrawal terms. Its ratification would support business confidence and investment, although there are serious doubts over whether the UK parliament will give the green light to the deal as it currently stands. • Growth should be fueled next year by the looser fiscal stance and higher wages boosting private consumption. However, private fixed investment will likely remain subdued until there is greater clarity on the Brexit front. A failure to seal a withdrawal deal with the EU before the UK departs the bloc in March 2019 is the key downside risk. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 1.5% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% again in 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EInflation remained at 2.4% in October. Inflation should trend gradually downward in the quarters ahead, on higher interest rates and as the pass-through effects of higher oil prices and the weaker pound subside. However, greater wage pressures will likely slow the descent. Panelists expect inflation to average 2.1% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. The Central Bank kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75% at its meeting ending on 31 October. Most panelists expect the Bank to wait until the UK leaves the EU in March next year before engaging in further tightening. FocusEconomics panelists see the Bank Rate ending 2019 at 1.08% and 2020 at 1.33%. On 16 November, the pound traded at USD 1.28 per GBP, weakening 2.6% from the same day in the previous month due to domestic political uncertainty. Looking to next year, the pound is set to appreciate. However, it will remain weaker than its pre-referendum levels and the evolution of Brexit negotiations will be key; if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the pound could lose significant value. Our panelists see the exchange rate ending 2019 at USD 1.39 per GBP and 2020 at USD 1.41 per GBP.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EPOLITICS | UK and EU reach final withdrawal agreement, but UK parliamentary backing is in doubt On 14 November, the UK and EU finalized negotiations on the withdrawal agreement and presented an outline of the political declaration of the future UK-EU relationship. If the withdrawal agreement is ratified by the European Council and approved by the UK and EU parliaments, this would hugely reduce economic uncertainty, likely boost fixed investment and UK GDP growth in the near-term, and see the pound strengthen. However, there are serious doubts over whether the UK parliament will approve the deal as it currently stands. The withdrawal agreement covers the financial settlement between the two parties—thought to be in the region of GBP 40 billion—guarantees the rights of UK citizens residing in the EU and EU citizens residing in the UK, and establishes a transition period, lasting from the moment the UK leaves the EU at the end of March 2019 to the end of December 2020. Moreover, the agreement allows for the possibility of a single extension of the transition period by an unspecified amount of time. Such an extension could well be necessary, given the difficulty of finalizing a trade agreement by the end of 2020, and should reassure businesses. The fourth key aspect is the Irish backstop, which would come into force at the end of the transition period if the UK and EU fail to find a way to keep trade flowing freely at the Irish border. The backstop would lead to the creation of a “single EU-UK customs territory”; however, it could also see Northern Ireland remaining more closely aligned to the EU than the rest of the UK, and obliged to follow EU rules in areas such as VAT, excise duties and goods legislation. The backstop can only be terminated if the UK and EU “decide jointly”, potentially forcing the UK to remain within such a trading relationship indefinitely. The outline of the political declaration is narrower in scope than Prime Minister May’s Chequers plan, which was presented in July and had called for “frictionless” trade in goods, a common rulebook and the establishment of a “facilitated customs arrangement” to remove customs checks at the border. The outline speaks instead of a free trade area for goods with “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”, along with “zero tariffs, no fees, charges or quantitative restrictions across all goods sectors”. However, some customs checks would likely remain. The deal for services—particularly financial services, where the UK has a strong comparative advantage—is less comprehensive. Were such a trade deal to come into force after the transition period, it would hamper the UK’s long-term growth prospects compared to the status quo of remaining in the EU. However, if the withdrawal agreement is signed off, this would likely boost growth in the short-term, by supporting business and consumer sentiment and leading to a recovery in private investment—which has been measly in recent quarters. Irrespective, MPs are likely to initially reject the deal when presented in parliament, which should occur in December. For the opposition Labour Party the deal will likely overly constrain trade between the UK and EU. The Northern Irish DUP—which provides Theresa May with a parliamentary majority—will likely balk at the potential for regulations in Northern Ireland to diverge from those in the rest of the UK. Moreover, many pro-Brexit Conservative MPs will likely consider the deal leaves the UK too closely aligned to the EU— particularly given that there is the possibility of an indefinite Irish backstop. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E- Focus Economics\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/8842161370149880168"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/8842161370149880168"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2018\/11\/united-kingdom-economy-brexit-update.html","title":"United Kingdom: Brexit Update"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-7442245017082009736"},"published":{"$t":"2017-05-10T13:14:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-05-10T15:41:13.634-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Article 50 Brexit"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Brexit 2017"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"EU"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"EU UK Split"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"euro"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"EURUSD"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Frexit"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Macro"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Macroview: Euro "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-qatCJkYv1rE\/WRInADrfkjI\/AAAAAAAALLE\/F0-lMe3UG-gna7gY_l884ZMFlZEvc_bnQCLcB\/s1600\/chaganomics%2Beurope%2B2017%2Bvisual.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-qatCJkYv1rE\/WRInADrfkjI\/AAAAAAAALLE\/F0-lMe3UG-gna7gY_l884ZMFlZEvc_bnQCLcB\/s640\/chaganomics%2Beurope%2B2017%2Bvisual.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith the French elections in the clear America can sit tight. As you see it is May 10th and the news is already on South Korea and James Comey. Politics is ever moving and changing, and political turmoil takes adaptation, but the missed issue in France has set a tone for the rest of 2017. There is nothing wrong with the EU trade bloc. The UK has left the EU - that is clear. They are in the process of braking apart a long standing trade union but it will not dismantle the euro.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf we can take anything from Sunday's FX open (May 07, 2017) the euro gained but then subdued, no doubt from reality. France and the EU have a wild and interesting road ahead but they will emerge now with the extra drive and direction needed verses a multi-nation wrap up led by Le Pen's anti-intellectualism.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/7442245017082009736"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/7442245017082009736"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2017\/05\/macroview-may-2017.html","title":"Macroview: Euro "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-qatCJkYv1rE\/WRInADrfkjI\/AAAAAAAALLE\/F0-lMe3UG-gna7gY_l884ZMFlZEvc_bnQCLcB\/s72-c\/chaganomics%2Beurope%2B2017%2Bvisual.png","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-7116197106767217472"},"published":{"$t":"2017-03-29T10:17:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-03-29T10:41:39.857-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2017 Economics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Article 50 Brexit"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Article 50 From 10 Downing Street"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Article 50 March 29"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Brexit"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Prime Minister’s letter to Donald Tusk triggering Article 50"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-large;\"\u003EOn 23 June last year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. As I have said before, that decision was no rejection of the values we share as fellow Europeans...\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 20px;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 20px;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 20px;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 20px;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/--Nw_PGv-078\/WNvHhmyzn1I\/AAAAAAAALFg\/gx05Av5dm4k96d2HbFfZ0b-DmQ5RIHXTwCLcB\/s1600\/1280px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"320\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/--Nw_PGv-078\/WNvHhmyzn1I\/AAAAAAAALFg\/gx05Av5dm4k96d2HbFfZ0b-DmQ5RIHXTwCLcB\/s640\/1280px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"background-color: white; color: rgba(0 , 0 , 0 , 0.843137); font-family: \u0026quot;lora\u0026quot; , serif; font-size: 20px;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime Minister’s letter to Donald Tusk triggering Article 50\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPublished 29 March 2017\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe process in the United Kingdom\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: bold;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EOn 23 June last year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. As I have said before, that decision was no rejection of the values we share as fellow Europeans. Nor was it an attempt to do harm to the European Union or any of the remaining member states. On the contrary, the United Kingdom wants the European Union to succeed and prosper. Instead, the referendum was a vote to restore, as we see it, our national self-determination. We are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe – and we want to remain committed partners and allies to our friends across the continent.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EEarlier this month, the United Kingdom Parliament confirmed the result of the referendum by voting with clear and convincing majorities in both of its Houses for the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill. The Bill was passed by Parliament on 13 March and it received Royal Assent from Her Majesty The Queen and became an Act of Parliament on 16 March.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EToday, therefore, I am writing to give effect to the democratic decision of the people of the United Kingdom. I hereby notify the European Council in accordance with Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union of the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the European Union. In addition, in accordance with the same Article 50(2) as applied by Article 106a of the Treaty Establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, I hereby notify the European Council of the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the European Atomic Energy Community. References in this letter to the European Union should therefore be taken to include a reference to the European Atomic Energy Community.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThis letter sets out the approach of Her Majesty’s Government to the discussions we will have about the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and about the deep and special partnership we hope to enjoy – as your closest friend and neighbour – with the European Union once we leave. We believe that these objectives are in the interests not only of the United Kingdom but of the European Union and the wider world too.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EIt is in the best interests of both the United Kingdom and the European Union that we should use the forthcoming process to deliver these objectives in a fair and orderly manner, and with as little disruption as possible on each side. We want to make sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and is capable of projecting its values, leading in the world, and defending itself from security threats. We want the United Kingdom, through a new deep and special partnership with a strong European Union, to play its full part in achieving these goals. We therefore believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the European Union.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe Government wants to approach our discussions with ambition, giving citizens and businesses in the United Kingdom and the European Union – and indeed from third countries around the world – as much certainty as possible, as early as possible.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EI would like to propose some principles that may help to shape our coming discussions, but before I do so, I should update you on the process we will be undertaking at home, in the United Kingdom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe process in the United Kingdom\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EAs I have announced already, the Government will bring forward legislation that will repeal the Act of Parliament – the European Communities Act 1972 – that gives effect to EU law in our country. This legislation will, wherever practical and appropriate, in effect convert the body of existing European Union law (the “acquis”) into UK law. This means there will be certainty for UK citizens and for anybody from the European Union who does business in the United Kingdom. The Government will consult on how we design and implement this legislation, and we will publish a White Paper tomorrow. We also intend to bring forward several other pieces of legislation that address specific issues relating to our departure from the European Union, also with a view to ensuring continuity and certainty, in particular for businesses. We will of course continue to fulfil our responsibilities as a member state while we remain a member of the European Union, and the legislation we propose will not come into effect until we leave.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EFrom the start and throughout the discussions, we will negotiate as one United Kingdom, taking due account of the specific interests of every nation and region of the UK as we do so. When it comes to the return of powers back to the United Kingdom, we will consult fully on which powers should reside in Westminster and which should be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But it is the expectation of the Government that the outcome of this process will be a significant increase in the decision-making power of each devolved administration.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENegotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe United Kingdom wants to agree with the European Union a deep and special partnership that takes in both economic and security cooperation. To achieve this, we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EIf, however, we leave the European Union without an agreement the default position is that we would have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms. In security terms a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened. In this kind of scenario, both the United Kingdom and the European Union would of course cope with the change, but it is not the outcome that either side should seek. We must therefore work hard to avoid that outcome.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EIt is for these reasons that we want to be able to agree a deep and special partnership, taking in both economic and security cooperation, but it is also because we want to play our part in making sure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats. And we want the United Kingdom to play its full part in realising that vision for our continent.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EProposed principles for our discussions\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ELooking ahead to the discussions which we will soon begin, I would like to suggest some principles that we might agree to help make sure that the process is as smooth and successful as possible.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Ei. We should engage with one another constructively and respectfully, in a spirit of sincere cooperation\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003ESince I became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom I have listened carefully to you, to my fellow EU Heads of Government and the Presidents of the European Commission and Parliament. That is why the United Kingdom does not seek membership of the single market: we understand and respect your position that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible and there can be no “cherry picking”. We also understand that there will be consequences for the UK of leaving the EU: we know that we will lose influence over the rules that affect the European economy. We also know that UK companies will, as they trade within the EU, have to align with rules agreed by institutions of which we are no longer a part – just as UK companies do in other overseas markets.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Eii. We should always put our citizens first\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThere is obvious complexity in the discussions we are about to undertake, but we should remember that at the heart of our talks are the interests of all our citizens. There are, for example, many citizens of the remaining member states living in the United Kingdom, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the European Union, and we should aim to strike an early agreement about their rights.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Eiii. We should work towards securing a comprehensive agreement\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EWe want to agree a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU, taking in both economic and security cooperation. We will need to discuss how we determine a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the United Kingdom’s continuing partnership with the EU. But we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Eiv. We should work together to minimise disruption and give as much certainty as possible\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EInvestors, businesses and citizens in both the UK and across the remaining 27 member states – and those from third countries around the world – want to be able to plan. In order to avoid any cliff-edge as we move from our current relationship to our future partnership, people and businesses in both the UK and the EU would benefit from implementation periods to adjust in a smooth and orderly way to new arrangements. It would help both sides to minimise unnecessary disruption if we agree this principle early in the process.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Ev. In particular, we must pay attention to the UK’s unique relationship with the Republic of Ireland and the importance of the peace process in Northern Ireland\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe Republic of Ireland is the only EU member state with a land border with the United Kingdom. We want to avoid a return to a hard border between our two countries, to be able to maintain the Common Travel Area between us, and to make sure that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU does not harm the Republic of Ireland. We also have an important responsibility to make sure that nothing is done to jeopardise the peace process in Northern Ireland, and to continue to uphold the Belfast Agreement.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Evi. We should begin technical talks on detailed policy areas as soon as possible, but we should prioritise the biggest challenges\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EAgreeing a high-level approach to the issues arising from our withdrawal will of course be an early priority. But we also propose a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This should be of greater scope and ambition than any such agreement before it so that it covers sectors crucial to our linked economies such as financial services and network industries. This will require detailed technical talks, but as the UK is an existing EU member state, both sides have regulatory frameworks and standards that already match. We should therefore prioritise how we manage the evolution of our regulatory frameworks to maintain a fair and open trading environment, and how we resolve disputes. On the scope of the partnership between us – on both economic and security matters – my officials will put forward detailed proposals for deep, broad and dynamic cooperation.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003Evii. We should continue to work together to advance and protect our shared European values\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EPerhaps now more than ever, the world needs the liberal, democratic values of Europe. We want to play our part to ensure that Europe remains strong and prosperous and able to lead in the world, projecting its values and defending itself from security threats.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: bold;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe task before us\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EAs I have said, the Government of the United Kingdom wants to agree a deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU, taking in both economic and security cooperation. At a time when the growth of global trade is slowing and there are signs that protectionist instincts are on the rise in many parts of the world, Europe has a responsibility to stand up for free trade in the interest of all our citizens. Likewise, Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake. The United Kingdom’s objectives for our future partnership remain those set out in my Lancaster House speech of 17 January and the subsequent White Paper published on 2 February.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EWe recognise that it will be a challenge to reach such a comprehensive agreement within the two-year period set out for withdrawal discussions in the Treaty. But we believe it is necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU. We start from a unique position in these discussions – close regulatory alignment, trust in one another’s institutions, and a spirit of cooperation stretching back decades. It is for these reasons, and because the future partnership between the UK and the EU is of such importance to both sides, that I am sure it can be agreed in the time period set out by the Treaty.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003EThe task before us is momentous but it should not be beyond us. After all, the institutions and the leaders of the European Union have succeeded in bringing together a continent blighted by war into a union of peaceful nations, and supported the transition of dictatorships to democracy. Together, I know we are capable of reaching an agreement about the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member state, while establishing a deep and special partnership that contributes towards the prosperity, security and global power of our continent.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/prime-ministers-letter-to-donald-tusk-triggering-article-50\/prime-ministers-letter-to-donald-tusk-triggering-article-50\" target=\"_blank\"\u003ECopy @ 10 Downing Street - PM's Office\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: justify;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/7116197106767217472"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/7116197106767217472"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2017\/03\/prime-ministers-letter-to-donald-tusk.html","title":"Prime Minister’s letter to Donald Tusk triggering Article 50"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/--Nw_PGv-078\/WNvHhmyzn1I\/AAAAAAAALFg\/gx05Av5dm4k96d2HbFfZ0b-DmQ5RIHXTwCLcB\/s72-c\/1280px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6153012181955522079.post-4410846194400830762"},"published":{"$t":"2017-03-24T12:23:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-03-29T10:52:25.310-04:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Article 50 Brexit"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Brexit"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Brexit 2017"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"EU UK Split"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"UK"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Brexit: Article 50 to be activated (The Lisbon Treaty)"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: left;\" trbidi=\"on\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003EUK Prime Minister Theresa May will notify European Council President Donald Tusk on March 29 that she wishes to activate Article 50 and begin the process of negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the EU\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Lisbon Treaty was signed by the heads of state and government of the 27 EU Member States on 13 December 2007. It is intended to reform the functioning of the European Union following the two waves of enlargement which have taken place since 2004 and which have increased the number of EU Member States from 15 to 27.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lisbon-treaty.org\/wcm\/the-lisbon-treaty\/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments\/title-6-final-provisions\/137-article-50.html\" target=\"_blank\"\u003EArticle 50 - The Lisbon Treaty\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/4410846194400830762"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/6153012181955522079\/posts\/default\/4410846194400830762"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.chaganomics.com\/2017\/03\/brexit-article-50-to-be-activated.html","title":"Brexit: Article 50 to be activated (The Lisbon Treaty)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@Chaganomics"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/02403013900919959069"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"32","src":"\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-j8yjJvQtVX0\/WSxbs0sfr9I\/AAAAAAAALRg\/8Yy5GRlNdK40Y7cnyibI5P4a40-dRvqaQCK4B\/s113\/WLPoints%2BAussie%2BOpen%2B2017.png"}}]}]}});