Showing posts from March, 2018

What Do Firms Think About The New Tax Law?

A core economic indicator I have continually improving since November 2016 has been confidence. Animal spirits blowing strong. 
See —> AtlantaFed Post  Atlanta Macroblog Post

Precious Metals: Outlook March 2018

Gold prices experienced some volatility in recent weeks, with upward pressures sending them higher by mid-February, followed by a price moderation at the end of the month as competing downward pressures strengthened. On 9 March, gold closed the trading day at USD 1,322 per troy ounce, which was 0.7% higher than on the same day in February. The price was 9.9% higher than on the same day last year and was up 1.4% on a year-to-date basis. The moderation at the end of February was led by a strengthening U.S. dollar, expected tightening in global interest rates and subdued retail demand in India. Nevertheless, fears of a potential trade war followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to place import tariff s on steel and aluminum, supporting demand for gold, as it both increased the precious metal’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty compared to U.S. bonds and equities, and put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. In addition, gold demand in most Asian hubs was robust in recent we…

Atlanta Housing Overview March 2018

Atlanta has a diverse housing realm. From dense and affluent to barren wastelands and crime ridden areas, Atlanta is a big city and has the parts to prove it. Population and industry drive a city. As you can see from the table below, Atlanta has a massive population. The Metropolitan Statistical Area is 5.7M and the Combined Statistical Area is 6.3M. The CSA covers 39 counties which is quite immense and plenty of room for growth, in theory. In fact if you include numbers from the CSA in housing stats you wind up with a very low average sale price and even lower average rental price. On the flip side of it if you look at segmented real estate markets inside Atlanta, from Morningside to outside the perimeter in Sandy Springs, these ultra desirable locations - which have at times bad public schools, going against the grain in the Southeast of price / school district coorelation - prices are way above average. Not kidding, in some parts rents are as high as Manhattan averages, and this i…

At A Glance: U.S. Mortgage Industry Analysis

Above shows the change in mortgage underwriting - from banks to non-banks. Great read below, it includes the statement: Before the financial crisis, mortgages were the last thing a consumer would default on, Noring says. That flipped in 2009, when people started defaulting on their mortgages first,” he says. “That was a tsunami for everyone in the mortgage business, and we’re still seeing the fallout. Lenders were not prepared to deal with it and didn’t do a great job, plus new rules were coming out that they needed to follow.I am an analyst by trade so I cannot help but think of market share and the changing landscape of various industries and industry segments. The mortgage industry has long been safe due to the various state laws and their difference in nature. The internet clearly shrinks that. Washington PostFrom American Banker  The nonbank mortgage banks in question originate approximately 50% of all mortgage loans – representing a $1 trillion market this year alone. - Do broke…

Russian Economics: An Overview

Pertinent to cover Russia since Putin has recently won. I noticed a credible source recently guesstimated Putin would be in power until 2030. 
I have included Russia’s ”official” Use of GDP report and stats. Details below are from FSSS (Russia), LTCI and from a March 2018 report from our content partner FocusEconomics. 

Use of GDP

I quarter II quarter I half III quarter 9 months IV