Showing posts from March, 2016

Dilma Rousseff - Why Brazil’s Leader Is Being Impeachment

Everything did appear rosy towards the start of the year, but that is far from the case today.  One can argue that the tipping point came when she attempted to promote Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to a cabinet position in a last ditch effort to help him avoid prosecution (for scandals inside Petrobas).

From US Today: Rousseff has been terribly unpopular for at least a year. Opinion polls show her public approval hovering around 10%. And the last 12 months have been spectacularly brutal for her: The economy is imploding; multiple corruption investigations are ensnaring — and jailing — rich and powerful politicians and business execs; and the Zika crisis is exposing drastic problems with health care - Link

$VIX Chart - from @zermattc


Fed Mins - 3/29/2016

Fed Mins - Link Below

In my remarks today, I will explain why the Committee anticipates that only gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted in coming years, emphasizing that this guidance should be understood as a forecast for the trajectory of policy rates that the Committee anticipates will prove to be appropriate to achieve its objectives, conditional on the outlook for real economic activity and inflation. Importantly, this forecast is not a plan set in stone that will be carried out regardless of economic developments. Instead, monetary policy will, as always, respond to the economy's twists and turns so as to promote, as best as we can in an uncertain economic environment, the employment and inflation goals assigned to us by the Congress. The proviso that policy will evolve as needed is especially pertinent today in light of global economic and financial developments since December, which at times have included significant changes in oil prices, …

Yellen & Her Words

From DB Research:

The chart below counts the number of times Janet Yellen in her recent economic outlook speeches has been using the words Global, Dollar, and China, and it is clear that the rest of the world is playing a more and more important role in Fed policy. Time will tell if this is an appropriate strategy.

Brazil & Impeachment - Rouseff March 2016

Just when you thought Brazil was back on the rails - perhaps for the Olympics - they slip off again.

From Reuters:
Brazil's largest party will decide on Tuesday to break away from President Dilma Rousseff's floundering coalition, party leaders said, sharply raising the odds that the country's first woman president will be impeached amid a corruption scandal. The fractious Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) will decide at its national leadership meeting on the pace of disengagement from the Rousseff administration, in which it holds seven ministerial posts and the vice presidency.

ZermattCredit OilGas Index - Price Studies