Politics, Policy, Economics - Since 2010

FROM 10/2/2014

Gold & Silver Falling - Chad Hagan Called It :)



FROM 10/2/2014

Ebola crisis rekindles concerns about secret research in Russian military labs - bio war? "She was an ordinary lab technician with an u...

Ebola and the Russian Military

Ebola crisis rekindles concerns about secret research in Russian military labs - bio war?

"She was an ordinary lab technician with an uncommonly dangerous assignment: drawing blood from Ebola-infected animals in a secret military laboratory. When she cut herself at work one day, she decided to keep quiet, fearing she’d be in trouble. Then the illness struck.

“By the time she turned to a doctor for help, it was too late,” one of her overseers, a former bio­weapons scientist, said of the accident years afterward. The woman died quickly and was buried, according to one account, in a “sack filled with calcium hypochlorite,” or powdered bleach" -

Read this article here - Thx Washington Post

Many (many) shipping companies will rebound, some will not. We have swung out of our earlier positions and have settled an $BALT as a majo...

LONG ON BALTIC TRADING $BALT

Many (many) shipping companies will rebound, some will not.
We have swung out of our earlier positions and have settled an $BALT as a major player, especially due to trading volume and M$A rumors.



By Tiernan Ray Shares of Nokia ( NOK ) are up 41 cents, or almost 6%, at $8.35, continuing pre-market gains, after the company...

NOKIA SOARS $NOK













By Tiernan Ray

Shares of Nokia (NOK) are up 41 cents, or almost 6%, at $8.35, continuing pre-market gains, after the company this morning beat Q3 expectations, and raised its profit outlook.

Revenue in the three months ended in September 41%, year over year, to €3.32 billion, yielding €0.09 per share.

Analysts had been modeling €3 billion and €0.07 per share.

Profit, excluding some costs, almost quintupled to €760 million.

Nokia said its “Networks” business unit had 13% revenue growth, to €2.9 billion. The company said the results showed its “strong position in a world where technology is undergoing significant change.”

The company noted several positive factors in the networks business:

Performance at Nokia Networks was particularly satisfying, with both growth and improved profitability. Progress was widespread, with four of our six regions increasing sales; Mobile Broadband sales and profitability were up sharply; Global Services delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of double digit profitability; and I was pleased to see a rebound in Europe driven by our robust deal momentum. That said, I also want to be clear that Networks benefited from some unique developments in the quarter, with a business mix weighted towards Mobile Broadband and regional mix that included strong gains in North Ameri

Nokia said the network unit’s operating profit margin this year is now expected to rise above 11%, better than the company’s targeted range of 5% to 10%. The company also raised its capital spending forecast to €250 million for the year, up from €200 million expected previously.

Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um reiterates a Market Perform rating on the stock and a valuation range of $8 to $8.80, writing that “Networks drove the surprise to the upside with HERE and Technologies slightly below expectations [...] Sales were driven primarily due to major new LTE deployments in North America and China.” Adnaan Ahmed of Berenberg reiterates a Buy rating, and an €8.40 price target on the ordinary shares (NOK1V), writing that “The key to the Nokia investment case is that its Networks margins do not fall off a cliff.”

He tells investors to expect minimal growth next year, on constrained capital spending by carriers:

For all of last year and this year (with today’s guidance), Nokia’s Networks business has been able to sustain 10%+ margins. We think this should continue for the next 12-18 months, as long as telco spend does not precipitously decline. Obviously, a major worry in the market right now is that US spend has peaked, as has China’s, and – outside of Vodafone – in Europe spend is muted. We agree with most of these assertions. We think Nokia’s Networks business will grow at a 3% clip next year. It will continue to benefit from Vodafone and some of the recent wins it has had in Europe. In the US, it has hardly any exposure to AT&T and Verizon. Sprint and T-Mobile are its major customers and T-Mobile is now starting to deploy LTE-advanced, which should be good for revenues and margins.

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar Chart LONG TERM FORECAST


Update Today 1:08 PM ET (Dow Jones) Print By Ben Kesling Ohio health officials strengthened the state's Ebola-monitoring protocols Satur...

Ohio Bans International Travel for Residents Being Monitored for Ebola:



Update

Today 1:08 PM ET (Dow Jones) Print

By Ben Kesling

Ohio health officials strengthened the state's Ebola-monitoring protocols Saturday to require that state

residents who are self-monitoring after contact with an Ebola-exposed environment don't leave the U.S.

Ohio residents who monitoring themselves for symptoms of the Ebola virus must also undergo daily

appointments with a health-department official, according to the state's new mandates.

Ohio instituted the ban on international travel for those being monitored citing "the inability to track

them down in the event they fail to meet their daily reporting requirements," according to a statement by

the state's Emergency Operations Department.

State officials said Sunday morning that 73 people are subject to the new regulations and that 52 other

people are self-monitoring but were at the lowest risk of infection, having had no direct contact or

extended time in the same enclosed space as a confirmed patient. Another 28 individuals are being

closely watched but their cases haven't yet been categorized.

The state has no confirmed cases of Ebola, but has actively quarantined three people who had direct

contact with a confirmed Ebola patient, Dallas nurse Amber Vinson who helped treat Thomas Eric

Duncan and is now being treated for the disease herself.

Ohio officials said the new daily, statewide tally of those being monitored will improve communications

with the public and ensure transparency in the health-care process.

The new travel rules announced Saturday by the Ohio Department of Health require anybody in the state

who is self-monitoring and wants to travel within the state or the U.S. to make arrangements to ensure

another health jurisdiction takes responsibility for the daily reporting.

"As we've seen, travel is a potential problem," Dr. Mary DiOrio, the state's epidemiologist, said in a

statement issued Saturday. "We don't want to take the slightest chance for this disease to potentially

spread."

The state is trying to avoid a repetition of what happened in Texas. Two exposed health-care workers in

Dallas--one of whom was later diagnosed with Ebola--traveled; one on a plane and the other on a cruise

ship. Dr. DiOrio said the state is comfortable with criticism of its aggressive stance and is confident the

actions taken are legal.

Those being monitored can be compelled to comply with the new restrictions, said Bill Teets, a

spokesman for the state of Ohio.

Ms. Vinson, a nurse at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, Dallas, traveled to Ohio from Oct. 10 to Oct.

13, flying on a commercial airline even after she started to run a fever. She subsequently tested positive

for Ebola a day later, when she returned to Texas.

Since then, local and state Ohio health officials and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have

been working to track people in the state who might have been in contact with her.

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 19, 2014 13:08 ET (17:08 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

More $RIO TINTO ANALYSIS


Oceaneerring International ( OII ) hit a 52-wk low Friday. The company traded as low as $64.59 and last at $64.92. Volume was at 911,125 sha...

Is Warren Buffett Building A Stake In OII (Oceaneering International Inc.)



Oceaneerring International (OII) hit a 52-wk low Friday. The company traded as low as $64.59 and last at $64.92. Volume was at 911,125 shares traded. OII had previously closed at $65.41. Today it has reached even lower levels, and is currently at $60.90.


OII peaked in October of 2013 at $86.27, but for the most part, OII has been a steady climber from it's 1978 days when it traded just bove $1.50.


Aside from recent development news, complete with deals struck and long terms leases, OII has been making the news, or at least the rumor mill, with talk of Warren Buffet slowly building a majority stake in the sleeping Houston based oil and gas giant.


Oceaneering is legendary by the way. They leased the JIM Suit in 1975 (below), and the illustrious Sylvia Earle consulted and took part in their explorations.





Here is a link to an insightful ten year OII chart


OII markets their services and products to oil and gas companies, government agencies, and firms in the aerospace, marine engineering and construction industries.


Oceaneering owns the worlds largest fleet of undersea vehicles, called ROV, used in offshore exploration and production for undersea pipelines and seafloor safety equipment. Today OII accountants for 60% of the global drill support ROV market.


Oceaneering International Cash from Continuing Operations as a % of Capital Expenditures (>100% means excess cash generated)*


Last 12 months 133%


YTD 2013 138%


YTD 2012 146%


YTD 2011 122%


YTD 2010 238%


* From MotleyFool.com

Archivio Nazionale del Cinema d'Impresa In an archived video, a brilliant Gianni Angelli states that American's will never take ove...

IN THE WAKE OF FIAT CHRYSLER - GIANNI AGNELLI ON THE INDUSTRY



Archivio Nazionale del Cinema d'Impresa


In an archived video, a brilliant Gianni Angelli states that American's will never take over and buy European automobile companies. He even states a few historical M&A stats. A legend and business hero, he was a brilliant man in many, many ways. Fiat Chrysler will list tomorrow as FCAU (NYSE).


Un grande!

I am still a BUY w/ RIO TINTO $RIO Here is a chart from today

RIO TINTO BEFORE A MERGER



I am still a BUY w/ RIO TINTO $RIO

Here is a chart from today

Excuse the squiggly but this is what my analysis is showing EURUSD

EURO USD Forecast into 2016


















Excuse the squiggly but this is what my analysis is showing EURUSD

DON'T BE LULLED BY THE MARKET'S SMOOTH RIDE It's Been A Long Time Since The Last Correction By Morgan Housel, WSJ After a five...

WSJ - THE ARTICLE BEFORE THE CORRECTION


DON'T BE LULLED BY THE MARKET'S SMOOTH RIDE

It's Been A Long Time Since The Last Correction



By Morgan Housel, WSJ



After a five-year surge, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high this past week. If you were along for the ride, congratulations.



But here's what's unnerving: It has been more than 700 trading days since the Dow closed 10% below its previous high. That is the fourth-longest run without a drop of that size, known as a correction, since 1929, according to data from S&P Capital IQ.



Some notable market skeptics have abandoned their bearish views. And bearish sentiment among investing newsletters recently hit the lowest level since 1987, according to Bespoke Investment Group, a research firm in Harrison, N.Y.



All this is making some contrarian investors nervous that the market is primed to take a tumble.



"Investors have clearly grown weary of worrying about risky scenarios that never seem to materialize," Seth Klarman, who runs the $27 billion Baupost Group hedge-fund firm in Boston, wrote to investors this summer. "The higher the level of valuations and the greater the level of complacency, the more there is to be concerned about."



Nobody knows when the market might turn. The 1990s bull market lasted more than twice as long without a correction.

But the longer we go without a stock-market pullback, the harder it will be for investors to handle when it inevitably occurs. A stable market breeds complacency. Complacency breeds bad investing behavior. Bad investing behavior breeds regret.



Now is a good time to remember that the past few years of smooth sailing aren't normal. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has suffered a decline of 20% or more sometime during the year in about one-fifth of all years, according to Chicago-based investment-consulting firm Marquette Associates. About a quarter of all years saw a retreat of 10% to 15%.



Yet, when adjusted for inflation and dividends, U.S. stocks increased more than 90-fold during this period, according to data from Yale University economist Robert Shiller.



Once you realize how normal and inevitable market volatility is, you might think of it differently when it comes. It might look less risky, and more like the cost of admission to achieving the market's long-term returns.



Here are a few things to keep in mind when thinking about how to react to the market's next inevitable correction.



How long can you stick around? Risk in the stock market is less about wondering whether a pullback will come and more about asking how long you can remain invested. An analysis of Mr. Shiller's data shows that, since 1871, a broad group of U.S. stocks has earned a positive return in 60% of all one-month periods-but in 95% of all 15-year periods and in every 20-year period, adjusted for dividends and inflation.



Having money invested in stocks that you may need for living expenses within the next five years dramatically increases the odds of falling victim to the market's inevitable volatility. Keeping a larger portion of your assets in bonds or cash might damp returns in the short run, but it's a small price to pay if it offers enough flexibility to ensure that money you have in stocks can remain invested for the longer haul, where returns are the greatest.



Investors fret about rock-bottom yields on cash these days, but the pain of having to be a desperate seller during a sharp stock-market downturn can damage your wealth in far deeper ways.



Make it boring. Your biggest enemy in investing is your own emotions. The excitement of chasing a hot market, and the fear created by crashes, tempts many investors to make buy and sell decisions at the worst possible times, rushing in at market tops and fleeing at market bottoms.



Russel Kinnel, director of manager research at Chicago-based Morningstar, says poor buy and sell decisions led the average mutual-fund investor to underperform the funds they invested in by 2.49 percentage points a year in the 10 years ended Dec. 31. For these investors, the biggest risk is the possibility that their own misbehavior will undermine the long-term returns offered by the market.



An automatic-investing plan, such as regular contributions to a 401(k), can help take the emotions out of investing decisions. Investing in consistent amounts every month promises you will buy stocks when the market is high and overvalued, but also when it's low and cheap after a market crash. Over time, averaging your purchase prices throughout the market's ups and downs may set you up for far more success than attempting to jump in and out of stocks at just the right time.



Rebalance. Staying in the market and enduring its volatility doesn't have to mean a set-it-and-forget-it approach to investing. Fran Kinniry, a principal at Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, recommends rebalancing a portfolio each year, so that a mix of stocks and bonds tracks an investor's predefined allocation targets. This is done by regularly selling assets that have performed well, using the proceeds to buy assets that have done less well.



Done with discipline over time, Mr. Kinniry says, this isn't market timing. It's a contrarian approach that uses market volatility to your advantage, buying more stocks after they become cheaper in a mechanical, rather than emotional, way.



Above all, realize that when the next market crash comes, this, too, will pass. The smartest investors may not be the most prescient, but the most patient.



"Timing the market is a fool's game," says Nicholas Murray, a New York-based consultant to financial advisers, "but time in the market is your greatest natural advantage."


Hagan Capital LLC

CAD gaing ground as a reserve currency



Hagan Capital LLC

Technicals are going berserk -

SILVER - SILVER'S GREAT TUMBLE

Technicals are going berserk -

Gold, Silver Outlook 2014, 2015 Hagan Capital , Atlanta, Georgia, Precious Metals, Geneva, Suisse, Economics, AGSI Group, Trading Metals...

Gold & Silver Outlook - Chad Hagan - Hagan Capital LLC







Gold, Silver Outlook 2014, 2015

Hagan Capital, Atlanta, Georgia, Precious Metals, Geneva, Suisse, Economics, AGSI Group, Trading Metals, AGSITRADE.CH, Chad Hagan